Liga Portugal 219°15 km/h

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    AVSAVS
    2–0
    FeirenseFeirense
    The model's lean: 2 · Feirense (35%)

    AVS – Feirense · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · AVS 34%X 31%35% Feirense · 2

    Analysis: AVS – Feirense

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    TEXT: A razor-thin edge separates AVS and Feirense heading into their clash, with the model giving the visitors a slight nod at 35% to win. Both sides mirror each other closely in terms of potential outcomes: Feirense's narrow edge comes despite almost identical expected goals—1.20 for them, compared to the home side's 1.08. This sets up a tense, evenly matched affair, where a single moment of brilliance or mistake could tilt the scales.

    With a 14% likelihood, the 1-1 draw is the most common scoreline predicted. A low-scoring game is anticipated, as evidenced by the 40% probability for over 2.5 goals; defenses might tighten the screws. The 47% probability for both teams to score aligns with this tepid attacking forecast. Small margins define the encounter, hinting at a cagey affair where tactical discipline will be paramount.

    No reliable data on recent form or streaks for either side is available, and the head-to-head sample is not provided, so current market pricing and model outputs remain the best guide. Feirense's capability to edge out tight games could still be crucial. Their tactical setup might focus on exploiting transitions and set-pieces, given the slim chances at open play.

    Weather remains a non-factor, leaving tactical adjustments as key to breaking the deadlock. Feirense may deploy a more conservative approach, seeking to capitalize on counter-attacks. Meanwhile, AVS could find themselves probing from the flanks, attempting to stretch the game and create space in the midfield.

    For those hunting value, Feirense's win at odds of 3.2 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet represents a 13% edge according to the model. With the model favoring Feirense and a 1-1 draw as the single most likely scoreline followed closely by a 0-1 away win, this line stands out as the sharpest betting angle.

    AVSAVS
    Form LD
    Key players
    • Lazar RosićFxG 0.03 · xT 0.01
    • Matheus Cardoso FranciscoRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
    • Fernando Miguel Pereira AlmeidaFxG 0.08 · xT 0.02
    FeirenseFeirense
    Form LDDLL
    Key players
    • Antonio Leal MateosCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.10
    • Pedro Manuel da Mota PintoCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.16
    • Luiz Benmuyal ReisRBxG 0.08 · xT 0.30
    Final score
    2 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: AVS 34% · Draw 31% · Feirense 35%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - CD FeirenseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 14,11fair 14,09+0 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - AVS FutebolBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,64fair 17,56-45 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: AVS – Feirense

    Predicted score matrix

    Feirense →
    AVS →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.6%
    0–111.9%
    0–27.4%
    0–33.0%
    0–4+1.2%
    1
    1–010.6%
    1–113.6%
    1–28.0%
    1–33.2%
    1–4+1.3%
    2
    2–05.9%
    2–17.1%
    2–24.3%
    2–31.7%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–02.1%
    3–12.6%
    3–21.5%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–00.7%
    4+–10.9%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.0-112%
    3. 3.0-011%
    4. 4.1-011%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,08–1,20
    Both teams to score
    47%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,560%
    @1.60
    Over 2,540%
    @2.37

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Feirense or draw (X2)68%
    • Under 3.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.83

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Feirense or draw (X2)68%
    • Under 2.5 goals60%
    • José Ricardo Avelar Ribeiro to score17%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score47%
    • Over 2.5 goals40%
    • Óscar Andrés Perea Abonce to score22%
    • Daouda Doumbia to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Feirense35% probability@3.75Paddy PowerEV+32%reference odds
    • 2 · Feirense35% probability@3.25BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
    • 2 · Feirense35% probability@3.25BetssonEV+14%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · AVSX2 · Feirense
    Betsafe2.203.05
    EV+ 14%
    3.25
    Betsson2.203.05
    EV+ 14%
    3.25
    Nordicbet2.203.05
    EV+ 14%
    3.25
    Paddy Power1.913.10
    EV+ 32%
    3.75
    Pinnacle2.39
    EV+ 0%
    3.20
    EV+ 11%
    3.15

    Odds updated 30 Aug, 11:35

    Odds movement

    1+10 %
    44 %39 %

    2.17 → 2.39

    X-4 %
    32 %27 %

    3.32 → 3.20

    2-5 %
    32 %27 %

    3.30 → 3.15

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 26/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    AVS
    Feirense
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    AVS (1–2)
    Feirense (0–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    AVS
    Lazar Rosić: 60 passningar, xT 0.03RosićDavi Duarte Schuindt: 52 passningar, xT 0.05SchuindtFernando Miguel Pereira Almeida: 45 passningar, xT 0.04AlmeidaDaniel Rebollo Franco: 43 passningar, xT 0.05FrancoDaniel Rivas: 42 passningar, xT 0.06RivasMatheus Cardoso Francisco: 39 passningar, xT 0.17FranciscoRoni Medeiros de Moura: 37 passningar, xT 0.01MouraAndrey Felisberto dos Santos: 30 passningar, xT 0.08SantosGuilherme Neiva Silva: 19 passningar, xT 0.01SilvaTalles Wander: 14 passningar, xT -0.02WanderAndre Martins Martins de Sousa: 9 passningar, xT 0.01Sousa
    Feirense
    Pedro Manuel da Mota Pinto: 235 passningar, xT 0.44PintoAntonio Leal Mateos: 189 passningar, xT 0.45MateosLuiz Benmuyal Reis: 154 passningar, xT 0.91ReisAndre Lopes: 100 passningar, xT 0.36LopesSamad Popoola: 96 passningar, xT 0.11PopoolaDiego Altube Suárez: 75 passningar, xT 0.05SuárezIsaac Souza Valenca: 72 passningar, xT 0.26ValencaTiago Antunes: 55 passningar, xT 0.05AntunesDiego Moreno Cledera: 54 passningar, xT 0.24ClederaGuilherme Mascarenhas Sousa Santos: 51 passningar, xT 0.06SantosDaniel Ballesteros Fernández: 38 passningar, xT 0.31Fernández
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    AVS
    Lazar Rosić: 60 passningar, xT 0.03RosićDavi Duarte Schuindt: 52 passningar, xT 0.05SchuindtFernando Miguel Pereira Almeida: 45 passningar, xT 0.04AlmeidaDaniel Rebollo Franco: 43 passningar, xT 0.05FrancoDaniel Rivas: 42 passningar, xT 0.06RivasMatheus Cardoso Francisco: 39 passningar, xT 0.17FranciscoRoni Medeiros de Moura: 37 passningar, xT 0.01MouraAndrey Felisberto dos Santos: 30 passningar, xT 0.08SantosGuilherme Neiva Silva: 19 passningar, xT 0.01SilvaTalles Wander: 14 passningar, xT -0.02WanderAndre Martins Martins de Sousa: 9 passningar, xT 0.01Sousa
    Feirense
    Pedro Manuel da Mota Pinto: 235 passningar, xT 0.44PintoAntonio Leal Mateos: 189 passningar, xT 0.45MateosLuiz Benmuyal Reis: 154 passningar, xT 0.91ReisAndre Lopes: 100 passningar, xT 0.36LopesSamad Popoola: 96 passningar, xT 0.11PopoolaDiego Altube Suárez: 75 passningar, xT 0.05SuárezIsaac Souza Valenca: 72 passningar, xT 0.26ValencaTiago Antunes: 55 passningar, xT 0.05AntunesDiego Moreno Cledera: 54 passningar, xT 0.24ClederaGuilherme Mascarenhas Sousa Santos: 51 passningar, xT 0.06SantosDaniel Ballesteros Fernández: 38 passningar, xT 0.31Fernández
    The goalkeepersDaniel Rebollo Franco (AVS)Diego Altube Suárez (Feirense)
    Saves115
    Save %85%71%
    xG prevented81%55%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    AVS
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Feirense
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins AVS vs Feirense according to our model?

    The model gives Feirense a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: AVS 34%, draw 31%, Feirense 35%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.