Benfica B vs Portimonense: Prediction & Odds (21 Aug 2026)

Liga Portugal 221 August 202621°19 km/h

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Benfica B

Portimonense

The model's lean: 1 · Benfica B (49%)Best value by the model: 2 · Portimonense @ 4.10 (+8 %)

1 · Benfica B 49%X 24%26% Portimonense · 2

49%

24%

26%

Analysis: Benfica B – Portimonense

Marcus Johansson · 17 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

A 49% win probability for Benfica II underscores their slight edge over Portimonense SC, yet the numbers hint at a closely fought contest. The model pegs the most likely scorelines at 1-1 (12%) and 1-0 (11%), suggesting a match that might not break away into a goal-fest. With expected goals of 1.63 for Benfica II and 1.02 for Portimonense SC, it's clear the hosts are fancied to dominate possession and goal-scoring chances.

Benfica II's season form has been slightly more consistent, reflected in their favourable win probability. However, the head-to-head record since 2023 shows a deadlock, with both teams sharing a win each and a draw. Given the small sample size of just three encounters, these past meetings weigh less than the current form and expected goals model in shaping expectations.

Portimonense SC enters this clash with a 26% win probability, but the real intrigue lies in the value odds available. Both Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer odds of 4.2 for an away win, presenting an 11% edge on the model's evaluation. This suggests that bettors seeking value might consider a punt on Portimonense, despite their underdog status.

Benfica II must be wary; a tactical misstep or lapse in concentration could invite Portimonense SC to capitalize unexpectedly, especially if the visitors manage to find the net first. Despite the 50% chance for over 2.5 goals, the numbers don't strongly support a high-scoring affair, and the marginal probability for both teams to score (52%) hints that defensive discipline could be paramount.

Betting against the odds can be risky, but the value offered for Portimonense SC to snatch a win at 4.2 might tempt those looking for a calculated gamble. If pressed for a scoreline prediction, a 1-1 draw appears likely, with the under 2.5 goals bet equally alluring for those anticipating a tight contest.

Benfica B

Form LWLLW

Key players

Francisco Bernardes Freitas NetoLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.00
Gonçalo Carvalho MoreiraCAMxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
Daniel Armando Fonseca da Silva BanjaquiRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07

Portimonense

Form LLWDW

Key players

Tamble Ulisses Folgado MonteiroFxG 0.58 · xT 0.00
Thauan LaraFxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
Danio Mamadi DjassiLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Benfica B – Portimonense

Predicted score matrix

Portimonense →

Benfica B →

0–07.4%

0–16.8%

0–23.7%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.4%

1–011.1%

1–112.1%

1–26.0%

1–32.0%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.4%

2–19.6%

2–24.9%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.5%

3–05.1%

3–15.2%

3–22.7%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–03.0%

4+–13.1%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,63–1,02

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@1.85

Over 2,550%

@1.85

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Benfica B to win49%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Benfica B to win49%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Anísio Cláudio Fernandes Reis Cabral to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Anísio Cláudio Fernandes Reis Cabral to score23%
João Diogo Pancadas Casimiro to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Portimonense26% probability@4.10BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
2 · Portimonense26% probability@4.10BetssonEV+8%reference odds
2 · Portimonense26% probability@4.10NordicbetEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Benfica B	X	2 · Portimonense
Betsafe	1.80	3.40	EV+ 8% 4.10
Betsson	1.80	3.40	EV+ 8% 4.10
Nordicbet	1.80	3.40	EV+ 8% 4.10

Odds updated 18 Aug, 18:36

Odds movement

1+5 %

54 %49 %

1.72 → 1.80

X-7 %

28 %23 %

3.65 → 3.40

2-2 %

25 %20 %

4.20 → 4.10

Over 2,5+2 %

53 %48 %

1.82 → 1.85

Betsson · 4 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Benfica B 1Draw 1Portimonense 1

Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 2,3)

Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Benfica B

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Benfica B (1–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Benfica B

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Benfica B

The goalkeepers	Diogo José de Nazaré e Jesus Ferreira (Benfica B)	Portimonense
Saves	5	–
Save %	100%	–
xG prevented	100%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Benfica B vs Portimonense according to our model?

The model gives Benfica B a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Benfica B 49%, draw 24%, Portimonense 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.