Liga Portugal 227°13 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Benfica BBenfica B
    0–2
    TorreenseTorreense
    The model's lean: 1 · Benfica B (38%)

    Benfica B – Torreense · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · Benfica B 38%X 27%35% Torreense · 2

    Analysis: Benfica B – Torreense

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    A mere 4 matches between Benfica B and Torreense since 2023 offer limited insight into their upcoming clash, especially with an even split of one win, two draws, and a loss apiece. However, recent form and expected goals tell a more nuanced story. Benfica B has a slight edge according to the model, which gives them a 38% chance of winning, compared to Torreense's 35%. This marginal favoritism is supported by a projected 1.45 expected goals for the hosts versus 1.31 for the visitors.

    Given these probabilities, a tightly contested affair is likely, with the most probable outcomes being a 1-1 draw or a narrow 1-0 victory for Benfica B. The model also suggests a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% likelihood of both teams scoring, indicating a potential edge in favor of scoring but not overwhelmingly so. It's a game where defenses could be the defining factor, and where one goal might not be enough to seal victory.

    The market provides an intriguing opportunity to back Benfica B at odds of 2.65 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. This price offers a 2% edge over the model's valuation of a home win. For those who prefer a calculated risk, this represents a solid value bet, especially given the hosts' slight favoritism and potential for a tight defensive performance.

    Still, the expected goal figures suggest a game that could easily sway in either direction. The likelihood of a 1-1 draw, at 12%, cannot be ignored, making it a reasonable hedge for those wary of committing to a straight win for Benfica B. Goals may be scarce, but the strategic play lies in recognizing the narrow margins and capitalizing on the available odds.

    Ultimately, the sharper angle is the value on a Benfica B win at 2.65, supported by the model's slight lean towards the hosts. It may not be the most thrilling of matches, but disciplined bets on well-reasoned odds pay the bills.

    Benfica BBenfica B
    Form LLWWL
    Key players
    • Gonçalo Carvalho MoreiraCAMxG 0.86 · xT 0.18
    • Francisco Bernardes Freitas NetoLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.13
    • Nuno FelixFxG 0.14 · xT 0.04
    TorreenseTorreense
    Form WWLDL
    Key players
    • Ianique dos Santos TavaresCMxG 0.15 · xT 0.23
    • Volnei FeltesCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.16
    • Alejandro Alfaro CascalesRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.10
    Final score
    0 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Benfica B 38% · Draw 27% · Torreense 35%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - SL Benfica BBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,75fair 8,98-3 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - TorreenseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,16fair 11,01-26 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Benfica B – Torreense

    Predicted score matrix

    Torreense →
    Benfica B →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.6%
    0–17.9%
    0–25.4%
    0–32.4%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–08.8%
    1–112.3%
    1–27.9%
    1–33.4%
    1–4+1.5%
    2
    2–06.7%
    2–18.7%
    2–25.7%
    2–32.5%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–03.2%
    3–14.2%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–01.6%
    4+–12.1%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,45–1,31
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,548%
    @1.88
    Over 2,552%
    @1.96EV+2%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Benfica B or draw (1X)66%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.96

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Benfica B or draw (1X)66%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Eduardo Nunes Fernandes to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Eduardo Nunes Fernandes to score23%
    • Ianique dos Santos Tavares to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Benfica B38% probability@2.81PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
    • Over 2.552% probability@1.96PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
    • 1 · Benfica B38% probability@2.65BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Benfica BX2 · Torreense
    Betsafe
    EV+ 2%
    2.65    		3.202.45
    Betsson
    EV+ 2%
    2.65    		3.202.45
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 2%
    2.65    		3.202.45
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 8%
    2.81    		3.282.58

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 04:33

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Torreense win since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 2.79 to 2.58 (−8%).

    1+16 %
    39 %34 %

    2.42 → 2.81

    X-1 %
    31 %26 %

    3.31 → 3.28

    2-8 %
    38 %33 %

    2.79 → 2.58

    Over 2,5+9 %
    52 %47 %

    1.80 → 1.96

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Benfica B 1Draw 2Torreense 1
    Goals: 6–5 (⌀ 2,8)

    Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Benfica B
    Torreense
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Benfica B (3–2)
    Torreense (3–7)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Benfica B
    Joao Fonseca: 161 passningar, xT 0.17FonsecaNuno Felix: 98 passningar, xT 0.07FelixDiogo José de Nazaré e Jesus Ferreira: 85 passningar, xT 0.06FerreiraGabriel Indio: 83 passningar, xT 0.05IndioJoão Maria Ornelas e Vasconcelos Capucho: 82 passningar, xT 0.41CapuchoDuarte Maria Loureiro Leal Soares: 64 passningar, xT 0.48SoaresMiguel Lebre Monteiro Figueiredo: 60 passningar, xT -0.11FigueiredoRafael José Mestre Quintas: 57 passningar, xT 0.11QuintasRui Pedro Ferreira da Silva: 46 passningar, xT 0.18SilvaGonçalo Carvalho Moreira: 44 passningar, xT 0.12MoreiraFrancisco Bernardes Freitas Neto: 42 passningar, xT 0.21Neto
    Torreense
    Alejandro Alfaro Cascales: 138 passningar, xT 0.18CascalesVolnei Feltes: 124 passningar, xT 0.27FeltesAmine Mehdi Oudrhiri Idrissi: 95 passningar, xT 0.15IdrissiIanique dos Santos Tavares: 81 passningar, xT 0.46TavaresJavi Vazquez: 77 passningar, xT 0.66VazquezAdriel Vasconcelos Ramos: 74 passningar, xT -1.96RamosMohamed Ali Diadie: 62 passningar, xT 0.71DiadieJonathan Mutombo Mawesi: 61 passningar, xT 0.13MawesiDany Jean: 56 passningar, xT 0.13JeanDavid Bruno: 43 passningar, xT 0.94BrunoJuan María Alcedo Serrano: 42 passningar, xT 0.21Serrano
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Benfica B
    Joao Fonseca: 161 passningar, xT 0.17FonsecaNuno Felix: 98 passningar, xT 0.07FelixDiogo José de Nazaré e Jesus Ferreira: 85 passningar, xT 0.06FerreiraGabriel Indio: 83 passningar, xT 0.05IndioJoão Maria Ornelas e Vasconcelos Capucho: 82 passningar, xT 0.41CapuchoDuarte Maria Loureiro Leal Soares: 64 passningar, xT 0.48SoaresMiguel Lebre Monteiro Figueiredo: 60 passningar, xT -0.11FigueiredoRafael José Mestre Quintas: 57 passningar, xT 0.11QuintasRui Pedro Ferreira da Silva: 46 passningar, xT 0.18SilvaGonçalo Carvalho Moreira: 44 passningar, xT 0.12MoreiraFrancisco Bernardes Freitas Neto: 42 passningar, xT 0.21Neto
    Torreense
    Alejandro Alfaro Cascales: 138 passningar, xT 0.18CascalesVolnei Feltes: 124 passningar, xT 0.27FeltesAmine Mehdi Oudrhiri Idrissi: 95 passningar, xT 0.15IdrissiIanique dos Santos Tavares: 81 passningar, xT 0.46TavaresJavi Vazquez: 77 passningar, xT 0.66VazquezAdriel Vasconcelos Ramos: 74 passningar, xT -1.96RamosMohamed Ali Diadie: 62 passningar, xT 0.71DiadieJonathan Mutombo Mawesi: 61 passningar, xT 0.13MawesiDany Jean: 56 passningar, xT 0.13JeanDavid Bruno: 43 passningar, xT 0.94BrunoJuan María Alcedo Serrano: 42 passningar, xT 0.21Serrano
    The goalkeepersDiogo José de Nazaré e Jesus Ferreira (Benfica B)Adriel Vasconcelos Ramos (Torreense)
    Saves169
    Save %89%56%
    xG prevented55%30%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Benfica B
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Torreense
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Benfica B vs Torreense according to our model?

    The model gives Benfica B a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Benfica B 38%, draw 27%, Torreense 35%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    ChavesChaves
    1–4
    AcadémicaAcadémica
    1 41%X 28%2 30%
    The model missed the outcome
    PenafielPenafiel
    0–1
    PortimonensePortimonense
    1 40%X 29%2 31%
    The model missed the outcome
    VizelaVizela
    1–0
    União de LeiriaUnião de Leiria
    1 39%X 30%2 32%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.