Chaves vs AVS: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Liga Portugal 223 August 202618°20 km/h

Chaves

AVS

The model's lean: 1 · Chaves (50%)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Chaves 50%X 28%22% AVS · 2

50%

28%

22%

Analysis: Chaves – AVS

Anna Karlsson · 18 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Chaves hold a 50% chance of claiming victory against Avs Futebol SAD, a statistic that speaks volumes about their dominance in this matchup. While Avs Futebol SAD may hope to defy the odds with a spirited performance, the numbers favor Chaves to secure the three points, most likely through a narrow win. The model's favorite scoreline is a 1-0 victory for Chaves, coming in at a 13% probability. This reflects a game likely to be dictated by fine margins.

Chaves have been adept at keeping their defensive unit organized, and their expected goals of 1.73 suggests they will carve out enough chances to find the back of the net. However, with Avs Futebol SAD's expected goals sitting at a modest 0.85, the visitors will need to exceed their usual offensive output to challenge the hosts. The small head-to-head sample means historical results carry little weight compared to current form and expected goals, which heavily favor Chaves.

47% for both over 2.5 goals and both teams to score points towards a cagey encounter with limited fireworks. The expectation is for a match that stays low-scoring, aligning with the 1-0 or 2-0 predictions. With neither team showing a clear inclination toward high-scoring affairs, a disciplined defensive approach could well define the day, particularly with Chaves playing at home.

Avs Futebol SAD will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat to turn the tide in their favor. The odds are stacked against them, with a mere 22% chance of victory, and their likelihood of finding the net doesn't inspire confidence. The cautious nature of the game's expected outcomes reflects a level of control that Chaves are likely to exert throughout the match.

For those scouring the betting markets, the sharpest angle lies with Chaves at 1.90 with Bet365. While no bet is ever without risk, this represents value given the model's strong lean towards a Chaves triumph. In a match with the potential to be decided by a solitary goal, backing the home side appears the savvy move.

Chaves

Form WLLWL

Key players

Roberto Porfírio Maximiano RodrigoFxG 0.41 · xT 0.03
Bruno RodriguesCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
Rui Filipe Caetano MouraRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.22

AVS

Form LD

Key players

Lazar RosićFxG 0.03 · xT 0.01
Matheus Cardoso FranciscoRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
Fernando Miguel Pereira AlmeidaFxG 0.08 · xT 0.02

Match prediction: Chaves – AVS

Predicted score matrix

AVS →

Chaves →

0–08.0%

0–16.1%

0–22.7%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–012.9%

1–111.5%

1–24.7%

1–31.3%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.4%

2–19.6%

2–24.1%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–06.6%

3–15.5%

3–22.3%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–04.2%

4+–13.5%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.1-111%
3.2-011%
4.2-110%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,73–0,85

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@1.78

Over 2,547%

@1.92

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Chaves to win50%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Chaves to win50%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Jorge Delgado Caballero to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Jorge Delgado Caballero to score25%
Jonatan Lucca to be booked22%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Chaves	X	2 · AVS
Betsafe	1.88	3.30	3.95
Betsson	1.88	3.30	3.95
Nordicbet	1.88	3.30	3.95

Odds updated 19 Aug, 03:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 18 August — the odds have shortened from 2.08 to 1.92 (−8%).

1-7 %

50 %45 %

2.02 → 1.88

X+2 %

31 %26 %

3.25 → 3.30

2+13 %

27 %22 %

3.50 → 3.95

Over 2,5-8 %

49 %44 %

2.08 → 1.92

Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 19/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Chaves

AVS

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Chaves (0–1)

AVS (1–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Chaves

AVS

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Chaves

AVS

The goalkeepers	João Nuno Figueiredo Valido (Chaves)	Daniel Rebollo Franco (AVS)
Saves	3	11
Save %	75%	85%
xG prevented	89%	81%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Chaves vs AVS according to our model?

The model gives Chaves a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Chaves 50%, draw 28%, AVS 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.