Chaves vs Feirense: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Liga Portugal 213 September 202624°6 km/h

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Chaves

Feirense

The model's lean: 1 · Chaves (41%)

1 · Chaves 41%X 30%29% Feirense · 2

41%

30%

29%

Analysis: Chaves – Feirense

Marcus Johansson · 8 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Feirense's recent struggles, marked by a three-game losing streak, set the stage for their clash against Chaves, where the hosts are slightly favored. Despite Chaves having only a modest head-to-head edge with one win in their last four meetings, the small sample size makes current form and expected goals more telling indicators. With a 41% probability of winning, the hosts are the model's lean, underscored by their expected goals figure of 1.30 compared to Feirense's 1.02.

Chaves's tactical approach, likely to involve pressing and exploiting the flanks, could capitalize on Feirense's vulnerabilities. The visitors, struggling to find cohesion and results, might focus on defensive solidity and quick transitions to counter. However, their recent form suggests they'll have difficulty breaking down a resolute Chaves defense.

The probabilities paint a picture of a low-scoring game; the most likely outcomes being 1-1 or 1-0. The over/under on goals leans towards the under, with only a 41% chance of seeing more than 2.5 goals. This aligns with both teams' recent scoring struggles and the expectation of a tightly contested battle.

Drawing on these dynamics, it's reasonable to expect a close affair, likely decided by a single goal or perhaps ending in a stalemate. With both teams to score sitting at 47%, the match could go either way on that front, but the overall scoring expectations still point to a cagey, tightly contested battle.

For those seeking value in this matchup, the data suggests that backing Chaves offers a favorable lean given Feirense's current struggles and the hosts' edge in underlying metrics, though no specific odds are provided to confirm value.

Chaves

Form LLWLL

Key players

Andre RodriguesRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.05
Leandro Santos do NascimentoRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.17
Marcos André de Menezes DinizLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.05

Feirense

Form DDLLL

Key players

Antonio Leal MateosCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
Samad PopoolaFxG 0.12 · xT 0.08
Luiz Benmuyal ReisRBxG 0.06 · xT 0.25

Match prediction: Chaves – Feirense

Predicted score matrix

Feirense →

Chaves →

0–010.1%

0–19.6%

0–25.1%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.6%

1–012.3%

1–113.4%

1–26.7%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.7%

2–08.3%

2–18.5%

2–24.3%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.5%

3–03.6%

3–13.7%

3–21.9%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.6%

4+–11.6%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.0-010%
4.0-110%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,30–1,02

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

320%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,559%

@1.66

Over 2,541%

@2.18

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Chaves or draw (1X)71%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Chaves or draw (1X)71%
Under 2.5 goals59%
Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals41%
Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno to score24%
Daouda Doumbia to be booked24%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Chaves	X	2 · Feirense
Betsafe	2.10	3.10	3.40
Betsson	2.10	3.10	3.40
Nordicbet	2.10	3.10	3.40
Pinnacle	2.14	3.23	3.48

Odds updated 9 Sept, 16:16

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Feirense win since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 4.12 to 3.48 (−16%).

1+12 %

51 %41 %

1.92 → 2.14

X-2 %

34 %24 %

3.30 → 3.23

2-16 %

30 %20 %

4.12 → 3.48

Over 2,5-5 %

47 %37 %

2.30 → 2.18

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 09/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Chaves 1Draw 2Feirense 1

Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

Key facts

Feirense have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Chaves

Feirense

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Chaves (1–3)

Feirense (0–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Chaves

Feirense

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Chaves

Feirense

The goalkeepers	João Nuno Figueiredo Valido (Chaves)	Diego Altube Suárez (Feirense)
Saves	3	11
Save %	50%	79%
xG prevented	42%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Chaves

Fixtures, form & tips

Feirense

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Chaves vs Feirense according to our model?

The model gives Chaves a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Chaves 41%, draw 30%, Feirense 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.