01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Farense or draw (1X)71%
- Under 3.5 goals81%
Liga Portugal 222°0,2 mm18 km/h
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Farense1–1
FelgueirasThe model's lean: 1 · Farense (38%)Best value by the model: 2 · Felgueiras @ 3.84 (+18 %)
Farense – Felgueiras · Liga Portugal 2
1 · Farense 38%X 31%31% Felgueiras · 2
38%
31%
31%
Analysis: Farense – Felgueiras
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Felgueiras have yet to lose to Farense in their short head-to-head history since 2023, recording two draws. However, with only two encounters between them, this data holds less weight compared to current form and expected goals. Farense are slightly favored here, with a 38% chance of victory as per the model, yet Felgueiras have a real shot at pulling off a surprise with their 31% win probability.
Farense's expected goals tally of 1.24 suggests they might edge the attack, yet the visitors are not far behind with an expected 1.01. This suggests a tightly contested game, likely to be decided by a single goal or possibly ending in a draw. The model's most likely scorelines reflect this balance: a 1-1 draw at 14% and a 1-0 win for the hosts at 13%, emphasizing the slim margins.
With only a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals, the data leans towards a low-scoring affair. The likelihood of both teams finding the net stands at 46%, supporting the hypothesis of a cautious game where defenses might take center stage. Given these numbers, a 1-1 draw or a narrow 1-0 victory for Farense seems plausible, but a goalless draw is also on the cards at 11%.
The sharpest angle for bettors lies with Felgueiras. Although the model gives them a 31% chance to win, odds of 3.6 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present an 11% edge. This makes backing the visitors a value play, suggesting that the market may be undervaluing their chances a tad. While it's no guarantee, this is where the real opportunity lies for those looking to exploit a market discrepancy.
FarenseForm WDLWW
Key players
- Fabijan BuntićFxG 0.00 · xT -0.58
- Cláudio Falcão SantosFxG 0.03 · xT -0.04
- Nermin ZolotićRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.50
FelgueirasForm LDWDD
Key players
- Mario Rivas ViondiFxG 0.39 · xT 0.14
- Henrique Manuel Neiva de Almeida MartinsFxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
- Michel CostaCAMxG 0.01 · xT 0.05
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Farense 38% · Draw 31% · Felgueiras 31%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Felgueiras 1932Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 15,47fair 20,39-24 %
MissMatchresultat - FarenseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,89fair 13,44-34 %
MissMatch prediction: Farense – Felgueiras
Predicted score matrix
Felgueiras →
Farense →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.9%
0–110.2%
0–25.3%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–012.7%
1–113.6%
1–26.6%
1–32.2%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–08.2%
2–18.2%
2–24.1%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–03.4%
3–13.4%
3–21.7%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–11.4%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.1-013%
- 3.0-011%
- 4.0-110%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,24–1,01
Both teams to score
46%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,2011%
123%
227%
320%
411%
5+8%
Under 2,561%
@1.60
Over 2,539%
@2.36
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Farense or draw (1X)71%
- Under 2.5 goals61%
- Balla Sangaré to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score46%
- Over 2.5 goals39%
- Balla Sangaré to score20%
- Henrique Manuel Neiva de Almeida Martins to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Felgueiras31% probability@3.84PinnacleEV+18%reference odds
- 2 · Felgueiras31% probability@3.60BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
- 2 · Felgueiras31% probability@3.60BetssonEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Farense | X | 2 · Felgueiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.05 | 3.00 | EV+ 11% 3.60 |
| Betsson | 2.05 | 3.00 | EV+ 11% 3.60 |
| Nordicbet | 2.05 | 3.00 | EV+ 11% 3.60 |
| Pinnacle | 2.12 | 3.14 | EV+ 18% 3.84 |
Odds updated 24 Aug, 05:15
Odds movement
1+1 %
47 %42 %
2.10 → 2.12
X+2 %
33 %28 %
3.09 → 3.14
2+2 %
27 %22 %
3.77 → 3.84
Over 2,5+2 %
43 %38 %
2.32 → 2.36
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 20/08/2026 → 24/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesFarense 0Draw 2Felgueiras 0
Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)
Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Farense
Felgueiras
Farense (5–2)
Felgueiras (1–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Farense
Felgueiras
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Farense
Felgueiras
| The goalkeepers | Fabijan Buntić (Farense) | Mateus Pasinato (Felgueiras) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 4 | 2 |
| Save % | 80% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 88% | 93% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Farense vs Felgueiras according to our model?
The model gives Farense a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Farense 38%, draw 31%, Felgueiras 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.