Liga Portugal 219°18,3 mm21 km/h

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    FeirenseFeirense
    0–1
    Porto BPorto B
    The model's lean: 1 · Feirense (52%)

    Feirense – Porto B · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · Feirense 52%X 28%21% Porto B · 2

    Analysis: Feirense – Porto B

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Feirense's 52% win probability against Porto B tells a clear story: the hosts are favored, particularly in a fixture where they have a slight upper hand historically. While a four-match head-to-head record since 2023 is hardly comprehensive, it reflects a balanced but cautious pattern, with both teams securing a win and two draws each. The numbers suggest this could turn into a tight contest, with key elements pointing toward a low-scoring match.

    Expected goals further reinforce the narrative of a defensively inclined encounter. Feirense are projected to create 1.42 xG, while Porto B lag behind at 0.86 xG. These figures suggest that the home side should edge proceedings, yet the margin is slim, and a single goal could decide it. The most likely scorelines of 1-0 and a stalemate at 1-1 highlight the cautious nature of this matchup.

    With a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals, the market leans towards a game with few goals. Coupled with a 44% probability of both teams finding the net, it seems that defenses may just have the upper hand. The anticipated rainy conditions, with 19.0 mm of precipitation expected, might further suppress any attacking flair as both sides prioritize defensive solidity.

    In this context, Feirense's 52% chance of victory carries value at odds of 2.05, available with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. This represents a 6% edge over the market. For bettors with an eye for value, backing the hosts at these odds could be prudent. With the expected weather conditions already factored in, it seems the safe play aligns with backing Feirense to grind out a narrow win, perhaps 1-0. Such calculated bets, while not the most thrilling, often prove profitable in the long run.

    FeirenseFeirense
    Form WLDDL
    Key players
    • Antonio Leal MateosCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.05
    • Luiz Benmuyal ReisRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.25
    • Isaac Souza ValencaRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.16
    Porto BPorto B
    Form LWWWL
    Key players
    • Dinis Andrade RodriguesRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.36
    • Bernardo Pinto LimaCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
    • Dominik PrpićCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.15
    Final score
    0 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Feirense 52% · Draw 28% · Porto B 21%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - CD FeirenseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,71fair 10,92-20 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - FC Porto BBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 14,92fair 28,73-48 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Feirense – Porto B

    Predicted score matrix

    Porto B →
    Feirense →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.6%
    0–18.5%
    0–23.8%
    0–31.1%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–014.1%
    1–112.9%
    1–25.4%
    1–31.6%
    1–4+0.4%
    2
    2–010.3%
    2–18.9%
    2–23.8%
    2–31.1%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–04.9%
    3–14.2%
    3–21.8%
    3–30.5%
    3–4+0.1%
    4+
    4+–02.4%
    4+–12.0%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-014%
    2. 2.1-113%
    3. 3.0-011%
    4. 4.2-010%
    5. 5.2-19%
    Expected goals
    1,42–0,86
    Both teams to score
    44%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,560%
    @1.63
    Over 2,540%
    @2.27

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Feirense to win52%
    • Under 3.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    38%

    Fair odds

    2.63

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Feirense to win52%
    • Under 2.5 goals60%
    • José Ricardo Avelar Ribeiro to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score44%
    • Over 2.5 goals40%
    • José Ricardo Avelar Ribeiro to score22%
    • Daouda Doumbia to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Feirense52% probability@2.11PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
    • 1 · Feirense52% probability@2.05BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
    • 1 · Feirense52% probability@2.05BetssonEV+6%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · FeirenseX2 · Porto B
    Betsafe
    EV+ 6%
    2.05    		3.103.50
    Betsson
    EV+ 6%
    2.05    		3.103.50
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 6%
    2.05    		3.103.50
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 9%
    2.11    		3.263.66

    Odds updated 24 Aug, 05:15

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    47 %42 %

    2.09 → 2.11

    X+1 %
    32 %27 %

    3.22 → 3.26

    2+1 %
    28 %23 %

    3.62 → 3.66

    Over 2,5+1 %
    44 %39 %

    2.25 → 2.27

    Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 20/08/2026 → 24/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Feirense 1Draw 2Porto B 1
    Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 1)

    Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Feirense
    Porto B
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Feirense (0–1)
    Porto B (1–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Feirense
    Pedro Manuel da Mota Pinto: 139 passningar, xT 0.31PintoAntonio Leal Mateos: 106 passningar, xT 0.28MateosLuiz Benmuyal Reis: 100 passningar, xT 0.53ReisAndre Lopes: 79 passningar, xT 0.18LopesGuilherme Mascarenhas Sousa Santos: 51 passningar, xT 0.06SantosDiego Altube Suárez: 49 passningar, xT 0.05SuárezIsaac Souza Valenca: 46 passningar, xT 0.17ValencaTiago Antunes: 43 passningar, xT 0.04AntunesSamad Popoola: 42 passningar, xT 0.06PopoolaDaniel Ballesteros Fernández: 30 passningar, xT 0.3FernándezDiego Moreno Cledera: 28 passningar, xT 0.21Cledera
    Porto B
    Dominik Prpić: 64 passningar, xT 0.14PrpićLuis Gomes: 53 passningar, xT 0.12GomesDinis Andrade Rodrigues: 35 passningar, xT 0.36RodriguesJoão de Oliveira Afonso: 31 passningar, xT 0.02AfonsoBernardo Pinto Lima: 25 passningar, xT 0.06LimaMartim Cunha: 23 passningar, xT 0.06CunhaTiago Gonçalves Silva: 17 passningar, xT 0.01SilvaMateus Souto Mide: 14 passningar, xT 0.03MideJoao Teixeira: 10 passningar, xT 0.03TeixeiraGonçalo Santos Sousa: 9 passningar, xT 0.01SousaDuarte Lopes Cunha: 8 passningar, xT 0Cunha
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Feirense
    Pedro Manuel da Mota Pinto: 139 passningar, xT 0.31PintoAntonio Leal Mateos: 106 passningar, xT 0.28MateosLuiz Benmuyal Reis: 100 passningar, xT 0.53ReisAndre Lopes: 79 passningar, xT 0.18LopesGuilherme Mascarenhas Sousa Santos: 51 passningar, xT 0.06SantosDiego Altube Suárez: 49 passningar, xT 0.05SuárezIsaac Souza Valenca: 46 passningar, xT 0.17ValencaTiago Antunes: 43 passningar, xT 0.04AntunesSamad Popoola: 42 passningar, xT 0.06PopoolaDaniel Ballesteros Fernández: 30 passningar, xT 0.3FernándezDiego Moreno Cledera: 28 passningar, xT 0.21Cledera
    Porto B
    Dominik Prpić: 64 passningar, xT 0.14PrpićLuis Gomes: 53 passningar, xT 0.12GomesDinis Andrade Rodrigues: 35 passningar, xT 0.36RodriguesJoão de Oliveira Afonso: 31 passningar, xT 0.02AfonsoBernardo Pinto Lima: 25 passningar, xT 0.06LimaMartim Cunha: 23 passningar, xT 0.06CunhaTiago Gonçalves Silva: 17 passningar, xT 0.01SilvaMateus Souto Mide: 14 passningar, xT 0.03MideJoao Teixeira: 10 passningar, xT 0.03TeixeiraGonçalo Santos Sousa: 9 passningar, xT 0.01SousaDuarte Lopes Cunha: 8 passningar, xT 0Cunha
    The goalkeepersDiego Altube Suárez (Feirense)João de Oliveira Afonso (Porto B)
    Saves37
    Save %75%70%
    xG prevented55%71%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Feirense
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Porto B
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Feirense vs Porto B according to our model?

    The model gives Feirense a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Feirense 52%, draw 28%, Porto B 21%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.