Liga Portugal 224°10 km/h

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    FeirenseFeirense
    1–3
    Sporting CP BSporting CP B
    The model's lean: 1 · Feirense (46%)

    Feirense – Sporting CP B · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · Feirense 46%X 28%26% Sporting CP B · 2

    Analysis: Feirense – Sporting CP B

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Two encounters since 2023 show a small sample, but Feirense have yet to break Sporting CP B's grip, suffering defeats in both matches. However, the hosts enter this clash under a cloud, having lost their last three games, a stark contrast to the visitors' momentum from three consecutive victories. Despite their poor recent form, Feirense are favored by the model, predicted to snatch a narrow victory or at least a share of the spoils.

    Tactically, Feirense's struggles may stem from their inability to capitalize on possession and convert pressing into goals. Their expected goals stand at 1.30, slightly ahead of their opponents' 1.09, suggesting they might create more opportunities, yet their recent results hint at inefficiencies in finishing. Sporting CP B, brimming with confidence from their winning streak, will likely exploit spaces on the counter, using their speed on the flanks to unsettle Feirense's backline.

    The model suggests a tight contest with the slender margin for Feirense: 1-1 appears the most likely outcome (13%), followed by a 1-0 victory (12%). Both teams to score sits at 49%, aligning with the balanced xG readings, while the under 2.5 goals option is slightly favored at 57%, reflecting the expected cautiousness influenced by the recent form of both squads. This leans toward a low-scoring affair, especially given Feirense's need to regain composure at home.

    For bettors eyeing value, the home side is priced enticingly at 2.65 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates Feirense's chances at 46%, translating to a substantial 23% edge. This suggests that, despite their current woes, the hosts offer a potentially profitable angle, banking on them to edge this clash on home turf.

    FeirenseFeirense
    Form DDLLL
    Key players
    • Antonio Leal MateosCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
    • Samad PopoolaFxG 0.12 · xT 0.08
    • Luiz Benmuyal ReisRBxG 0.06 · xT 0.25
    Sporting CP BSporting CP B
    Form LDWWW
    Key players
    • Mauro Meireles CoutoRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.21
    • Rafael Ribeiro MotaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
    • Samuel Loureiro Carvalho JustoCAMxG 0.21 · xT -0.03
    Final score
    1 – 3
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Feirense 46% · Draw 28% · Sporting CP B 26%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - CD FeirenseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 10,96fair 11,88-8 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Feirense – Sporting CP B

    Predicted score matrix

    Sporting CP B →
    Feirense →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.5%
    0–19.6%
    0–25.4%
    0–32.0%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–011.5%
    1–113.4%
    1–27.1%
    1–32.6%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–07.7%
    2–18.4%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.7%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–03.4%
    3–13.7%
    3–22.0%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–01.5%
    4+–11.6%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.0-110%
    4. 4.0-010%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,30–1,09
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,557%
    @1.59
    Over 2,543%
    @2.39EV+2%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Feirense to win46%
    • Under 3.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    31%

    Fair odds

    3.22

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Feirense to win46%
    • Under 2.5 goals57%
    • José Ricardo Avelar Ribeiro to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals43%
    • Rafael Ferreira Nel to score24%
    • Daouda Doumbia to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Feirense46% probability@2.80PinnacleEV+30%reference odds
    • 1 · Feirense46% probability@2.65BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
    • 1 · Feirense46% probability@2.65BetssonEV+23%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · FeirenseX2 · Sporting CP B
    Betsafe
    EV+ 23%
    2.65    		3.002.62
    Betsson
    EV+ 23%
    2.65    		3.002.62
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 23%
    2.65    		3.002.62
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 30%
    2.80    		3.162.68

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:33

    Odds movement

    1+3 %
    37 %32 %

    2.72 → 2.80

    X+1 %
    33 %28 %

    3.13 → 3.16

    2+1 %
    38 %33 %

    2.66 → 2.68

    Over 2,5+1 %
    42 %37 %

    2.37 → 2.39

    Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Feirense 0Draw 0Sporting CP B 2
    Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 4)

    Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Feirense have lost 3 in a row.
    • Sporting CP U19 come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Feirense
    Sporting CP B
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Feirense (0–4)
    Sporting CP B (4–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Feirense
    Pedro Manuel da Mota Pinto: 298 passningar, xT 0.52PintoAntonio Leal Mateos: 243 passningar, xT 0.52MateosLuiz Benmuyal Reis: 200 passningar, xT 0.99ReisSamad Popoola: 130 passningar, xT 0.18PopoolaDiego Altube Suárez: 105 passningar, xT 0.08SuárezDiego Moreno Cledera: 102 passningar, xT 0.45ClederaAndre Lopes: 100 passningar, xT 0.36LopesIsaac Souza Valenca: 88 passningar, xT 0.28ValencaTiago Antunes: 55 passningar, xT 0.05AntunesGuilherme Mascarenhas Sousa Santos: 51 passningar, xT 0.06SantosGuilherme Meira Ferreira Alves: 46 passningar, xT 0.06Alves
    Sporting CP B
    Eduardo Manuel de Freitas Monteiro Ferreira Felicíssimo: 206 passningar, xT 0.3FelicíssimoRafael Ribeiro Mota: 149 passningar, xT 0.17MotaMateo Tanlongo: 96 passningar, xT 0.02TanlongoSamuel Loureiro Carvalho Justo: 77 passningar, xT -0.07JustoRodrigo Prata Deusdado Rodrigues: 73 passningar, xT 0.41RodriguesMauro Meireles Couto: 66 passningar, xT 0.37CoutoAtanásio Afonso Miranda Cunha: 66 passningar, xT 0.04CunhaGuilherme Meireles Pires: 63 passningar, xT 0.03PiresLucas Taibo Dominguez: 52 passningar, xT 0.06DominguezRodrigo Miguel Amores Dias: 50 passningar, xT 0.17DiasMicael Elias Silvestre Sanha: 39 passningar, xT 0.09Sanha
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Feirense
    Pedro Manuel da Mota Pinto: 298 passningar, xT 0.52PintoAntonio Leal Mateos: 243 passningar, xT 0.52MateosLuiz Benmuyal Reis: 200 passningar, xT 0.99ReisSamad Popoola: 130 passningar, xT 0.18PopoolaDiego Altube Suárez: 105 passningar, xT 0.08SuárezDiego Moreno Cledera: 102 passningar, xT 0.45ClederaAndre Lopes: 100 passningar, xT 0.36LopesIsaac Souza Valenca: 88 passningar, xT 0.28ValencaTiago Antunes: 55 passningar, xT 0.05AntunesGuilherme Mascarenhas Sousa Santos: 51 passningar, xT 0.06SantosGuilherme Meira Ferreira Alves: 46 passningar, xT 0.06Alves
    Sporting CP B
    Eduardo Manuel de Freitas Monteiro Ferreira Felicíssimo: 206 passningar, xT 0.3FelicíssimoRafael Ribeiro Mota: 149 passningar, xT 0.17MotaMateo Tanlongo: 96 passningar, xT 0.02TanlongoSamuel Loureiro Carvalho Justo: 77 passningar, xT -0.07JustoRodrigo Prata Deusdado Rodrigues: 73 passningar, xT 0.41RodriguesMauro Meireles Couto: 66 passningar, xT 0.37CoutoAtanásio Afonso Miranda Cunha: 66 passningar, xT 0.04CunhaGuilherme Meireles Pires: 63 passningar, xT 0.03PiresLucas Taibo Dominguez: 52 passningar, xT 0.06DominguezRodrigo Miguel Amores Dias: 50 passningar, xT 0.17DiasMicael Elias Silvestre Sanha: 39 passningar, xT 0.09Sanha
    The goalkeepersDiego Altube Suárez (Feirense)Guilherme Meireles Pires (Sporting CP B)
    Saves116
    Save %79%86%
    xG prevented36%42%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Feirense
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Sporting CP B
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Feirense vs Sporting CP B according to our model?

    The model gives Feirense a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Feirense 46%, draw 28%, Sporting CP B 26%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.