Liga Portugal 219°14 km/h

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    FelgueirasFelgueiras
    2–1
    ChavesChaves
    The model's lean: 1 · Felgueiras (43%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.68 (+2 %)

    Felgueiras – Chaves · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · Felgueiras 43%X 31%26% Chaves · 2

    Analysis: Felgueiras – Chaves

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    The head-to-head record between Felgueiras and Chaves since 2023 is tight but limited in scope, with the hosts having secured just one win while losing twice against their upcoming opponents. Despite this small sample size, it's Felgueiras' current league form that stands out. They are unbeaten in their last five league matches, a streak that suggests resilience and a capacity to grind out results, a critical factor when facing a Chaves side struggling for consistency.

    Felgueiras appear slightly favored by the model, which gives them a 43% chance of winning compared to Chaves' 26%. This aligns with the expected goals, which also lean in favor of the hosts at 1.24 to 1.03. The most likely scoreline, a 1-1 draw at 14%, reflects the cautious nature of this encounter. A 1-0 victory for Felgueiras follows closely behind at 12%, indicating a likely edge for the home team in a match projected to be tight and low-scoring.

    With an over 2.5 goals probability of just 39% and both teams to score sitting at 46%, this clash is anticipated to be a battle of attrition rather than a free-scoring affair. Felgueiras' robust form and the model's numbers suggest a controlled game plan aimed at maintaining their unbeaten run, potentially stifling Chaves’ attempts to find the net.

    The betting angle sharpens on Felgueiras' victory, which is priced appealingly at 2.20 with Bet365. Given their recent form and statistical advantage, backing the home side could present value. The blend of their unbeaten streak and the model's support makes Felgueiras a solid choice to edge this contest, likely by a 1-0 margin.

    FelgueirasFelgueiras
    Form DWDDD
    Key players
    • Mario Rivas ViondiFxG 0.37 · xT 0.11
    • Rolando António Pereira Rocha AlmeidaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
    • Henrique Manuel Neiva de Almeida MartinsFxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
    ChavesChaves
    Form WLLWL
    Key players
    • Roberto Porfírio Maximiano RodrigoFxG 0.23 · xT -0.01
    • Bruno RodriguesCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
    • Tiago Alexandre Almeida SimoesCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
    Final score
    2 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Felgueiras 43% · Draw 31% · Chaves 26%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - ChavesBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 13,01fair 19,45-33 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Felgueiras 1932Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,35fair 13,54-38 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Felgueiras – Chaves

    Predicted score matrix

    Chaves →
    Felgueiras →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.8%
    0–110.3%
    0–25.5%
    0–31.9%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–012.5%
    1–113.6%
    1–26.8%
    1–32.3%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–08.0%
    2–18.2%
    2–24.2%
    2–31.4%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–03.3%
    3–13.4%
    3–21.7%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–01.3%
    4+–11.4%
    4+–20.7%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.0-011%
    4. 4.0-110%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,24–1,03
    Both teams to score
    46%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,561%
    @1.68EV+2%
    Over 2,539%
    @2.38

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Felgueiras or draw (1X)70%
    • Under 3.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.78

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Felgueiras or draw (1X)70%
    • Under 2.5 goals61%
    • Lucas da Costa Duarte to score25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score46%
    • Over 2.5 goals39%
    • Lucas da Costa Duarte to score25%
    • Pedro Nuno Almeida Pinho to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.561% probability@1.68PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · FelgueirasX2 · Chaves
    Betsafe2.123.103.30
    Betsson2.123.103.30
    Nordicbet2.123.103.30
    Paddy Power2.203.003.10
    Pinnacle2.213.253.48

    Odds updated 30 Aug, 10:35

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Felgueiras win since 25 August — the odds have shortened from 2.36 to 2.21 (−6%).

    1-6 %
    44 %39 %

    2.36 → 2.21

    X+4 %
    32 %27 %

    3.14 → 3.25

    2+12 %
    31 %26 %

    3.11 → 3.48

    Over 2,5+1 %
    46 %41 %

    2.19 → 2.21

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Felgueiras 1Draw 1Chaves 2
    Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Felgueiras 1932 are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Felgueiras
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Felgueiras (2–2)
    Chaves (0–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Felgueiras
    Samuel Oliveira Vivas Castro: 111 passningar, xT 0.18CastroFrancisco Franca: 85 passningar, xT 0.36FrancaEduardo Silvino da Cruz: 84 passningar, xT 0.19CruzFilipe Cruz: 77 passningar, xT 0.39CruzRodrigo Santos Ribeiro: 71 passningar, xT 0.29RibeiroMateus Pasinato: 69 passningar, xT 0.06PasinatoRolando António Pereira Rocha Almeida: 68 passningar, xT 0.13AlmeidaMichel Costa: 46 passningar, xT 0.08CostaHenrique Manuel Neiva de Almeida Martins: 44 passningar, xT 0.1MartinsArmando Roberto Torres Lopes: 40 passningar, xT 0.11LopesAfonso Freitas: 38 passningar, xT 0.3Freitas
    Chaves
    Bruno Rodrigues: 36 passningar, xT 0.09RodriguesTiago Alexandre Almeida Simoes: 35 passningar, xT 0.06SimoesJoão Nuno Figueiredo Valido: 30 passningar, xT 0.03ValidoFrancisco José Vilas Boas Pereira: 26 passningar, xT 0.03PereiraTalysson Moreira Reis: 24 passningar, xT 0.03ReisMamadou Tounkara: 19 passningar, xT 0TounkaraPedro Pelagio: 18 passningar, xT 0.15PelagioIvo Saúl Vázquez Serrano: 15 passningar, xT 0.35SerranoMarcos André de Menezes Diniz: 13 passningar, xT 0DinizLeandro Santos do Nascimento: 12 passningar, xT 0.01NascimentoRoberto Porfírio Maximiano Rodrigo: 8 passningar, xT -0.02Rodrigo
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Felgueiras
    Samuel Oliveira Vivas Castro: 111 passningar, xT 0.18CastroFrancisco Franca: 85 passningar, xT 0.36FrancaEduardo Silvino da Cruz: 84 passningar, xT 0.19CruzFilipe Cruz: 77 passningar, xT 0.39CruzRodrigo Santos Ribeiro: 71 passningar, xT 0.29RibeiroMateus Pasinato: 69 passningar, xT 0.06PasinatoRolando António Pereira Rocha Almeida: 68 passningar, xT 0.13AlmeidaMichel Costa: 46 passningar, xT 0.08CostaHenrique Manuel Neiva de Almeida Martins: 44 passningar, xT 0.1MartinsArmando Roberto Torres Lopes: 40 passningar, xT 0.11LopesAfonso Freitas: 38 passningar, xT 0.3Freitas
    Chaves
    Bruno Rodrigues: 36 passningar, xT 0.09RodriguesTiago Alexandre Almeida Simoes: 35 passningar, xT 0.06SimoesJoão Nuno Figueiredo Valido: 30 passningar, xT 0.03ValidoFrancisco José Vilas Boas Pereira: 26 passningar, xT 0.03PereiraTalysson Moreira Reis: 24 passningar, xT 0.03ReisMamadou Tounkara: 19 passningar, xT 0TounkaraPedro Pelagio: 18 passningar, xT 0.15PelagioIvo Saúl Vázquez Serrano: 15 passningar, xT 0.35SerranoMarcos André de Menezes Diniz: 13 passningar, xT 0DinizLeandro Santos do Nascimento: 12 passningar, xT 0.01NascimentoRoberto Porfírio Maximiano Rodrigo: 8 passningar, xT -0.02Rodrigo
    The goalkeepersMateus Pasinato (Felgueiras)João Nuno Figueiredo Valido (Chaves)
    Saves73
    Save %78%75%
    xG prevented92%89%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Felgueiras
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Chaves
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Felgueiras vs Chaves according to our model?

    The model gives Felgueiras a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Felgueiras 43%, draw 31%, Chaves 26%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    VizelaVizela
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.