01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Torreense or draw (X2)65%
- Under 3.5 goals83%
Liga Portugal 218°11 km/h
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Lusitânia2–2
TorreenseThe model's lean: 2 · Torreense (39%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 11.00 (+30 %)
Lusitânia – Torreense · Liga Portugal 2
1 · Lusitânia 31%X 30%39% Torreense · 2
31%
30%
39%
Analysis: Lusitânia – Torreense
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
The model gives Torreense a slight edge with a 39% chance of winning, while Lusitânia sits at a 31% probability. A fine margin indeed, reflective of their expected goals: 1.09 for the hosts against 1.08 for the visitors. The numbers suggest a tightly contested affair, with the most likely scorelines being 1-1 and either team nicking a 1-0 win. With only one head-to-head meeting since 2023, where Lusitânia claimed victory, the sample is too small to overshadow current form.
Goals might be scarce. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at just 37%, while both teams to score is at 44%. The expectation of a low-scoring match aligns with the betting value identified: under 1.5 goals at odds of 3.15 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model sees a 36% chance for this outcome, creating a 13% value edge. It's a sharp angle if you're inclined towards a conservative punt.
In a match where margins are razor-thin, leaning towards a 1-0 result for either team seems prudent. Yet, the real edge lies in the under 1.5 goals market — a value opportunity not to be overlooked.
LusitâniaForm WLLDW
Key players
- Arsénio Martins Lafuente NunesCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.03
- Francisco MachadoLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
- Diogo Filipe Eusébio PauloCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.01
TorreenseForm WDWWL
Key players
- Ianique dos Santos TavaresCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.33
- Mohamed Ali DiadieLWxG 0.00 · xT 0.66
- Javi VazquezLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.01
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Lusitânia 31% · Draw 30% · Torreense 39%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - TorreenseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,85fair 17,98-56 %
MissMatch prediction: Lusitânia – Torreense
Predicted score matrix
Torreense →
Lusitânia →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–011.8%
0–111.9%
0–26.6%
0–32.4%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–012.1%
1–113.8%
1–27.2%
1–32.6%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–06.8%
2–17.3%
2–24.0%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–02.5%
3–12.7%
3–21.4%
3–30.5%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–10.9%
4+–20.5%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.0-112%
- 4.0-012%
- 5.2-17%
Expected goals
1,09–1,08
Both teams to score
44%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,2012%
124%
227%
319%
411%
5+
Under 2,563%
@1.80EV+14%
Over 2,537%
@2.20
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Torreense or draw (X2)65%
- Under 2.5 goals63%
- André Filipe Encarnação Simões to score17%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score44%
- Over 2.5 goals37%
- Miguel Angelo Marques Pinto Pereira to score27%
- Fábio Miguel Jesus Carvalho to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.512% probability@11.00Betfair ExchangeEV+30%reference odds
- Under 1.536% probability@3.45Betfair ExchangeEV+24%reference odds
- Under 2.563% probability@1.80Betfair ExchangeEV+14%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lusitânia | X | 2 · Torreense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | EV+ 3% 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.46 |
| Betsafe | 3.10 | 3.15 | 2.22 |
| Betsson | 3.10 | 3.15 | 2.22 |
| Nordicbet | 3.10 | 3.15 | 2.22 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 11% 3.58 | 3.26 | 2.18 |
Odds updated 22 Aug, 18:31
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Torreense win since 20 August — the odds have shortened from 2.31 to 2.18 (−6%).
1+13 %
31 %26 %
3.16 → 3.58
X+3 %
32 %27 %
3.18 → 3.26
2-6 %
45 %40 %
2.31 → 2.18
Over 2,5+1 %
48 %43 %
2.06 → 2.09
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 20/08/2026 → 22/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesLusitânia 1Draw 0Torreense 0
Goals: 1–0 (⌀ 1)
Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lusitânia
Torreense
Lusitânia (1–0)
Torreense (1–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lusitânia
Torreense
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lusitânia
Torreense
| The goalkeepers | Vitor Hugo Batista Araujo de Mendonca (Lusitânia) | Adriel Vasconcelos Ramos (Torreense) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 4 | 3 |
| Save % | 100% | 60% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 28% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lusitânia vs Torreense according to our model?
The model gives Torreense a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lusitânia 31%, draw 30%, Torreense 39%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 37% and under at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.