Liga Portugal 221°16 km/h

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    LeixõesLeixões
    3–1
    Amarante Futebol ClubeAmarante Futebol Clube
    The model's lean: 1 · Leixões (36%)Best value by the model: 2 · Amarante Futebol Clube @ 4.09 (+40 %)

    Leixões – Amarante Futebol Clube · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · Leixões 36%X 30%34% Amarante Futebol Clube · 2

    Analysis: Leixões – Amarante Futebol Clube

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    With the odds leaning slightly towards Leixões, the numbers paint a picture of a tightly contested match against Amarante Futebol Clube. The model gives a 36% chance to the hosts, a 30% probability for a draw, and a 34% likelihood for the visitors to snatch a win. The slim margins suggest a cagey affair, with the most likely scorelines being 1-1 (13%) and 1-0 to Leixões (11%).

    The expected goals tell a similar story of defensive solidity, with Leixões expected to net 1.24 and Amarante 1.15. This aligns with the forecast for under 2.5 goals, which stands at 57%. Both teams scoring is nearly a coin flip at 49%, indicating a balanced matchup where defenses might dictate the game.

    Leixões might edge it slightly based on form, but the historical head-to-head provides a limited sample which holds less weight in predictive power. Instead, the focus should be on the nuanced balance of expected goals and model probabilities. The visitors certainly have a chance, especially with the lack of overwhelming favor towards the hosts.

    Interestingly, there's a significant value proposition for those looking to back Amarante. Bookmakers Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer odds of 3.85 on an away victory, which the model rates as a 34% possibility. This presents a 32% edge, a tempting proposition for value hunters who thrive on calculated risks rather than gut feelings.

    Ultimately, while a 1-1 draw seems the most probable outcome, the real opportunity lies in the undervalued potential of an Amarante win at those odds. For those keen on finding value, backing the visitors with these odds looks like the sharpest angle amidst a backdrop of defensive cautiousness.

    LeixõesLeixões
    Form WLWLW
    Key players
    • Bryan Giovanni Róchez MejíaFxG 0.49 · xT 0.04
    • Simão Pedro Soares AzevedoLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.35
    • Cláudio Vítor Rodrigues AraújoCMxG 0.17 · xT 0.09
    Amarante Futebol ClubeAmarante Futebol Clube
    Form LLDW
    Key players
    • Abdoul Gaimal Faissal ZangreRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.19
    • Fernando de Lacerda GomesFxG 0.04 · xT -0.01
    • Feliciano MendesCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.17
    Final score
    3 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Leixões 36% · Draw 30% · Amarante Futebol Clube 34%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - AmaranteBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 16,17fair 15,05+7 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - LeixoesBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,37fair 13,04-43 %
    Hit

    Match prediction: Leixões – Amarante Futebol Clube

    Predicted score matrix

    Amarante Futebol Clube →
    Leixões →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.6%
    0–110.2%
    0–26.1%
    0–32.3%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–011.0%
    1–113.5%
    1–27.5%
    1–32.9%
    1–4+1.1%
    2
    2–07.0%
    2–18.1%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.8%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–02.9%
    3–13.3%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–01.2%
    4+–11.3%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.0-110%
    4. 4.0-010%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,24–1,15
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,557%
    @1.69
    Over 2,543%
    @2.20

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Leixões or draw (1X)66%
    • Under 3.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.92

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Leixões or draw (1X)66%
    • Under 2.5 goals57%
    • Bryan Giovanni Róchez Mejia to score29%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals43%
    • Bryan Giovanni Róchez Mejia to score29%
    • Joao Filipe da Costa Teixeira to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Amarante Futebol Clube34% probability@4.09PinnacleEV+40%reference odds
    • 2 · Amarante Futebol Clube34% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+35%reference odds
    • 2 · Amarante Futebol Clube34% probability@3.95BetssonEV+35%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · LeixõesX2 · Amarante Futebol Clube
    Betsafe1.883.30
    EV+ 35%
    3.95
    Betsson1.883.30
    EV+ 35%
    3.95
    Nordicbet1.883.30
    EV+ 35%
    3.95
    Pinnacle1.88
    EV+ 10%
    3.64
    EV+ 40%
    4.09

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    53 %48 %

    1.85 → 1.88

    X+2 %
    29 %24 %

    3.57 → 3.64

    2+2 %
    26 %21 %

    4.01 → 4.09

    Over 2,5+1 %
    46 %41 %

    2.17 → 2.20

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 03/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Leixões
    Amarante Futebol Clube
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Leixões (5–5)
    Amarante Futebol Clube (2–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Leixões
    Matheus de Mello Costa: 155 passningar, xT 0.12CostaAmadu Balde: 139 passningar, xT 0.03BaldeHugo Miguel Lourido Faria: 124 passningar, xT 0.1FariaCláudio Vítor Rodrigues Araújo: 111 passningar, xT 0.34AraújoLourenco Henriques: 98 passningar, xT 0.02HenriquesPaulo Sérgio Mota: 90 passningar, xT 0.3MotaRafael Avelino Pereira Pinto Barbosa: 85 passningar, xT 0.3BarbosaSimão Pedro Soares Azevedo: 62 passningar, xT 0.81AzevedoIgor Stefanovic: 52 passningar, xT 0.05StefanovicSalvador José Milhazes Agra: 51 passningar, xT 0.07AgraSerif Nhaga: 40 passningar, xT 0.02Nhaga
    Amarante Futebol Clube
    Feliciano Mendes: 131 passningar, xT 0.67MendesJose Antonio Doria Santos Campelo: 126 passningar, xT 0CampeloDiogo Miguel Pereira Costa: 113 passningar, xT 0.18CostaGonçalo Ferreira da Cunha: 104 passningar, xT 0.31CunhaJoao Ricardo Meireles Machado: 88 passningar, xT 0.43MachadoAbdoul Gaimal Faissal Zangre: 82 passningar, xT 0.4ZangreFernando de Lacerda Gomes: 79 passningar, xT -0.04GomesDiogo Guilhermino Babo Figueiredo: 78 passningar, xT -1.05FigueiredoLeandro Nogueira Ferreira: 45 passningar, xT 0.03FerreiraRodrigo Beirao da Veiga: 42 passningar, xT 0.15VeigaEdgar Melvin Andrade Costa: 36 passningar, xT -0.02Costa
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Leixões
    Matheus de Mello Costa: 155 passningar, xT 0.12CostaAmadu Balde: 139 passningar, xT 0.03BaldeHugo Miguel Lourido Faria: 124 passningar, xT 0.1FariaCláudio Vítor Rodrigues Araújo: 111 passningar, xT 0.34AraújoLourenco Henriques: 98 passningar, xT 0.02HenriquesPaulo Sérgio Mota: 90 passningar, xT 0.3MotaRafael Avelino Pereira Pinto Barbosa: 85 passningar, xT 0.3BarbosaSimão Pedro Soares Azevedo: 62 passningar, xT 0.81AzevedoIgor Stefanovic: 52 passningar, xT 0.05StefanovicSalvador José Milhazes Agra: 51 passningar, xT 0.07AgraSerif Nhaga: 40 passningar, xT 0.02Nhaga
    Amarante Futebol Clube
    Feliciano Mendes: 131 passningar, xT 0.67MendesJose Antonio Doria Santos Campelo: 126 passningar, xT 0CampeloDiogo Miguel Pereira Costa: 113 passningar, xT 0.18CostaGonçalo Ferreira da Cunha: 104 passningar, xT 0.31CunhaJoao Ricardo Meireles Machado: 88 passningar, xT 0.43MachadoAbdoul Gaimal Faissal Zangre: 82 passningar, xT 0.4ZangreFernando de Lacerda Gomes: 79 passningar, xT -0.04GomesDiogo Guilhermino Babo Figueiredo: 78 passningar, xT -1.05FigueiredoLeandro Nogueira Ferreira: 45 passningar, xT 0.03FerreiraRodrigo Beirao da Veiga: 42 passningar, xT 0.15VeigaEdgar Melvin Andrade Costa: 36 passningar, xT -0.02Costa
    The goalkeepersIgor Stefanovic (Leixões)Diogo Guilhermino Babo Figueiredo (Amarante Futebol Clube)
    Saves88
    Save %62%73%
    xG prevented42%34%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Leixões vs Amarante Futebol Clube according to our model?

    The model gives Leixões a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Leixões 36%, draw 30%, Amarante Futebol Clube 34%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.