Liga Portugal 226°0,2 mm12 km/h

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    PenafielPenafiel
    4–1
    AcademicaAcademica
    The model's lean: 2 · Academica (37%)

    Penafiel – Academica · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · Penafiel 36%X 27%37% Academica · 2

    Analysis: Penafiel – Academica

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    A razor-thin margin separates the two sides, with Academica slightly favored by the model at 37% compared to Penafiel's 36%. The expected goals are nearly identical, at 1.25 for the hosts and 1.20 for the visitors. This statistical deadlock suggests a closely contested affair, with the most likely scorelines being 1-1, followed by narrow 1-0 wins for either team.

    Penafiel's current run of scoring in nine consecutive league matches underlines their attacking consistency. Yet, it's counterbalanced by Academica's almost equal probability of finding the net, resulting in a 50% chance for both teams to score. With only a 44% likelihood of surpassing 2.5 goals, a low-scoring encounter seems probable, further supported by the most favored outcomes.

    The standout opportunity lies in Academica's win odds. At 3.4 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a 25% edge according to the model's 37% win probability. This potential value makes Academica's odds an attractive proposition for those aligning with the model's lean, adding a sharp betting angle to a tightly poised matchup.

    PenafielPenafiel
    Form LWLWW
    Key players
    • Max Svensson RíoLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.07
    • João Gonçalo Teixeira PintoRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.19
    • Cláudio Moreira da SilvaLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.26
    AcademicaAcademica
    Form WWL
    Key players
    • Leandro Pereira Da SilvaFxG 0.05 · xT 0.06
    • Afonso RodriguesRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.02
    • Hélder Filipe Oliveira LopesLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.04
    Final score
    4 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Penafiel 36% · Draw 27% · Academica 37%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Academica de CoimbraBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 14,16fair 13,62+4 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - FC PenafielBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,63fair 12,49-31 %
    Hit

    Match prediction: Penafiel – Academica

    Predicted score matrix

    Academica →
    Penafiel →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.0%
    0–19.9%
    0–26.2%
    0–32.5%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–010.4%
    1–113.3%
    1–27.8%
    1–33.1%
    1–4+1.2%
    2
    2–06.8%
    2–18.1%
    2–24.9%
    2–31.9%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–02.8%
    3–13.4%
    3–22.0%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–01.2%
    4+–11.4%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.0-110%
    4. 4.0-09%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,25–1,20
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,556%
    @1.62
    Over 2,544%
    @2.33EV+4%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Academica or draw (X2)63%
    • Under 3.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.06

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Academica or draw (X2)63%
    • Under 2.5 goals56%
    • Afonso de Oliveira Rodrigues to score19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals44%
    • Raúl Toni Alcaina Fenollosa to score24%
    • Pedro Miguel Cunha Sá to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Academica37% probability@3.65PinnacleEV+35%reference odds
    • 2 · Academica37% probability@3.40BetsafeEV+25%reference odds
    • 2 · Academica37% probability@3.40BetssonEV+25%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · PenafielX2 · Academica
    Betsafe2.083.15
    EV+ 25%
    3.40
    Betsson2.083.15
    EV+ 25%
    3.40
    Nordicbet2.083.15
    EV+ 25%
    3.40
    Pinnacle2.163.21
    EV+ 35%
    3.65

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 02:33

    Odds movement

    10 %
    46 %41 %

    2.15 → 2.16

    X+3 %
    32 %27 %

    3.12 → 3.21

    2+6 %
    29 %24 %

    3.45 → 3.65

    Over 2,5+3 %
    44 %39 %

    2.27 → 2.33

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 03/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Penafiel have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Penafiel
    Academica
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Penafiel (5–0)
    Academica (3–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Penafiel
    Jaime Sánchez Muñoz: 79 passningar, xT 0.16MuñozCláudio Moreira da Silva: 77 passningar, xT 0.38SilvaAdrián Hernández Hernández: 72 passningar, xT 0.07HernándezAlejandro Carbonell Vallés: 72 passningar, xT 0.04VallésPedro Miguel Cunha Sá: 60 passningar, xT -0.02SáGoncalo Negrao: 42 passningar, xT 0.43NegraoTeddy Alloh: 42 passningar, xT 0.06AllohMiguel Oliveira: 38 passningar, xT 0.06OliveiraJoão Gonçalo Teixeira Pinto: 30 passningar, xT 0.27PintoAntonio David Álvarez Rey: 15 passningar, xT 0.15ReyMax Svensson Río: 14 passningar, xT 0.01Río
    Academica
    Ricardo Jorge Martins Teixeira: 113 passningar, xT 0.24TeixeiraLeandro Pereira Da Silva: 109 passningar, xT 0.17SilvaGabriel Miranda Rodrigues: 92 passningar, xT 0.23RodriguesCarlos Reinaldo Moreira Alves: 59 passningar, xT 0.09AlvesHélder Filipe Oliveira Lopes: 42 passningar, xT 0.1LopesJean Carlos Sinisterra Angulo: 37 passningar, xT 0.07AnguloCarlos Eduardo Ferreira Batista: 28 passningar, xT 0.05BatistaAlioune Badara Mané: 28 passningar, xT 0.09ManéAfonso Rodrigues: 28 passningar, xT 0.04RodriguesMarcos Paulo: 26 passningar, xT -0.02PauloEdson Rodrigues Farias: 24 passningar, xT 0.03Farias
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Penafiel
    Jaime Sánchez Muñoz: 79 passningar, xT 0.16MuñozCláudio Moreira da Silva: 77 passningar, xT 0.38SilvaAdrián Hernández Hernández: 72 passningar, xT 0.07HernándezAlejandro Carbonell Vallés: 72 passningar, xT 0.04VallésPedro Miguel Cunha Sá: 60 passningar, xT -0.02SáGoncalo Negrao: 42 passningar, xT 0.43NegraoTeddy Alloh: 42 passningar, xT 0.06AllohMiguel Oliveira: 38 passningar, xT 0.06OliveiraJoão Gonçalo Teixeira Pinto: 30 passningar, xT 0.27PintoAntonio David Álvarez Rey: 15 passningar, xT 0.15ReyMax Svensson Río: 14 passningar, xT 0.01Río
    Academica
    Ricardo Jorge Martins Teixeira: 113 passningar, xT 0.24TeixeiraLeandro Pereira Da Silva: 109 passningar, xT 0.17SilvaGabriel Miranda Rodrigues: 92 passningar, xT 0.23RodriguesCarlos Reinaldo Moreira Alves: 59 passningar, xT 0.09AlvesHélder Filipe Oliveira Lopes: 42 passningar, xT 0.1LopesJean Carlos Sinisterra Angulo: 37 passningar, xT 0.07AnguloCarlos Eduardo Ferreira Batista: 28 passningar, xT 0.05BatistaAlioune Badara Mané: 28 passningar, xT 0.09ManéAfonso Rodrigues: 28 passningar, xT 0.04RodriguesMarcos Paulo: 26 passningar, xT -0.02PauloEdson Rodrigues Farias: 24 passningar, xT 0.03Farias
    The goalkeepersMiguel Oliveira (Penafiel)Carlos Reinaldo Moreira Alves (Academica)
    Saves88
    Save %100%100%
    xG prevented100%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Penafiel
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Academica
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Penafiel vs Academica according to our model?

    The model gives Academica a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Penafiel 36%, draw 27%, Academica 37%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    1 41%X 28%2 30%
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    PenafielPenafiel
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    PortimonensePortimonense
    1 40%X 29%2 31%
    The model missed the outcome
    VizelaVizela
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    União de LeiriaUnião de Leiria
    1 39%X 30%2 32%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.