Penafiel vs Sporting CP B: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Liga Portugal 223 August 202619°23 km/h

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Penafiel

Sporting CP B

The model's lean: 1 · Penafiel (41%)

1 · Penafiel 41%X 28%31% Sporting CP B · 2

41%

28%

31%

Analysis: Penafiel – Sporting CP B

Anna Karlsson · 18 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

41% — that's the model's nod towards Penafiel, and it sets an intriguing stage as they face off against Sporting CP U19 in Liga Portugal 2. With Penafiel carrying a slight edge in terms of probabilities, the home side seems poised to capitalize on their advantage. The most likely outcomes float around a narrow margin, with a 1-1 draw leading the way at 13%, followed closely by a 1-0 home win at 10%.

Sporting CP U19, despite being a lively force in their own right, find themselves slightly edged out in this model's calculations. The expected goals metric tells its own story: Penafiel at 1.31 and Sporting CP U19 trailing at 1.18. This suggests a game that might hover around the razor's edge of low-scoring drama. A 45% chance for over 2.5 goals hints at a cagey affair, while a 51% likelihood of both teams finding the net points towards a tantalizing chess match on the pitch.

Penafiel's head-to-head record since 2023 — albeit a small sample of only two matches — could provide them with a psychological boost, having secured a win and a draw against this youthful Sporting side. Yet, such a limited sample size should be taken with a pinch of salt compared to the broader form and expected goals predictions. Sporting CP U19, youthful and unpredictable, have shown flashes of brilliance that could tilt the balance should complacency seep into the home camp.

When it comes to sharp wagering, the value bet is undeniable. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all pricing Penafiel at odds of 2.45, there's a slight but notable edge aligned with the model's 41% win probability for Penafiel, offering a 1% expected value. This slim margin might not seem earth-shattering, but in the tight world of betting, it's a nugget worth noting. Ultimately, envision a hard-fought 1-0 victory for Penafiel, with value firmly in the home side's corner.

Penafiel

Form LWLWL

Key players

Joseph Thibaut SeryFxG 0.35 · xT 0.03
Raúl Toni Alcaina FenollosaFxG 0.31 · xT 0.05
Alejandro Carbonell VallésCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.04

Sporting CP B

Form LLLDW

Key players

Rafael Ferreira NelFxG 0.47 · xT 0.05
Flávio Ferreira GonçalvesLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.13
Rodrigo Duarte RibeiroFxG 0.44 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Penafiel – Sporting CP B

Predicted score matrix

Sporting CP B →

Penafiel →

0–08.7%

0–19.4%

0–25.8%

0–32.3%

0–4+0.9%

1–010.5%

1–113.2%

1–27.6%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.1%

2–18.4%

2–25.0%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.7%

3–03.1%

3–13.7%

3–22.2%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.6%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.0-19%
4.0-09%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,31–1,18

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@1.62

Over 2,545%

@2.12

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Penafiel or draw (1X)67%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Penafiel or draw (1X)67%
Under 2.5 goals55%
José Manuel Albergaria Costa Leite to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals45%
José Manuel Albergaria Costa Leite to score33%
Samuel Loureiro Carvalho Justo to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Penafiel41% probability@2.45BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
1 · Penafiel41% probability@2.45BetssonEV+1%reference odds
1 · Penafiel41% probability@2.45NordicbetEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Penafiel	X	2 · Sporting CP B
Betsafe	EV+ 1% 2.45	3.10	2.72
Betsson	EV+ 1% 2.45	3.10	2.72
Nordicbet	EV+ 1% 2.45	3.10	2.72

Odds updated 18 Aug, 14:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

40 %35 %

2.42 → 2.45

X-3 %

32 %27 %

3.20 → 3.10

2-1 %

36 %31 %

2.75 → 2.72

Over 2,5+2 %

46 %41 %

2.08 → 2.12

Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Penafiel 1Draw 1Sporting CP B 0

Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sporting CP B

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sporting CP B (1–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sporting CP B

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sporting CP B

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Penafiel vs Sporting CP B according to our model?

The model gives Penafiel a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Penafiel 41%, draw 28%, Sporting CP B 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.