Liga Portugal 224°16 km/h

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    PortimonensePortimonense
    0–2
    LeixõesLeixões
    The model's lean: 1 · Portimonense (38%)

    Portimonense – Leixões · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · Portimonense 38%X 29%32% Leixões · 2

    Analysis: Portimonense – Leixões

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Portimonense's recent head-to-head record against Leixões might seem alarming, with three consecutive losses since 2023. However, the deeper dive into form and expected goals presents a more optimistic picture for the hosts. The model paints Portimonense as slight favorites, with a 38% probability of victory, compared to Leixões's 32%. This tilt in favor of Portimonense suggests a potential shift in momentum, particularly given their expected goals edge of 1.36 to 1.22.

    The most likely scoreline scenarios reinforce a closely contested match, with a 1-1 draw emerging as the frontrunner at 13%. Yet, the 1-0 victory for Portimonense, sitting at 10%, hints that the hosts may just have the upper hand. Despite the previous losses, Portimonense's current form could be enough to edge them over the line, especially considering Leixões's modest away threat.

    Both teams to score is pegged at 53%, a reflection of their relatively balanced offensive capacities. However, the over 2.5 goals probability of 48% suggests a more cautious affair, likely dictated by tactical discipline rather than open play. The absence of weather factors ensures that the expected goals and leanings remain intact, with no external disruptions to consider.

    While the historical data might favor Leixões, a sample of just three matches isn't definitive. Instead, the form indicators and expected goals play a more significant role in forecasting the outcome. Portimonense's subtle advantage in these areas could very well translate into a narrow win, tipping the scales in their favor after a string of losses.

    For those eyeing value, the home win odds at 2.85 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a compelling opportunity. With a model-rated 38% probability, this bet offers a 9% edge. Focusing on the hosts not only aligns with model probabilities but taps into a promising betting angle.

    PortimonensePortimonense
    Form LWDWW
    Key players
    • Tamble Ulisses Folgado MonteiroFxG 0.58 · xT 0.00
    • Thauan LaraFxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
    • Danio Mamadi DjassiLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.15
    LeixõesLeixões
    Form LWLWL
    Key players
    • Bryan Giovanni Róchez MejíaFxG 0.29 · xT 0.05
    • Simão Pedro Soares AzevedoLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.35
    • Cláudio Vítor Rodrigues AraújoCMxG 0.15 · xT 0.09
    Final score
    0 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Portimonense 38% · Draw 29% · Leixões 32%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Portimonense SCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,46fair 10,52-10 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - LeixoesBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,07fair 13,01-30 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Portimonense – Leixões

    Predicted score matrix

    Leixões →
    Portimonense →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.0%
    0–18.9%
    0–25.6%
    0–32.3%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–010.0%
    1–113.0%
    1–27.7%
    1–33.1%
    1–4+1.2%
    2
    2–07.0%
    2–18.5%
    2–25.2%
    2–32.1%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–03.2%
    3–13.9%
    3–22.4%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–01.5%
    4+–11.8%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,36–1,22
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,552%
    @1.78
    Over 2,548%
    @2.10

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Portimonense or draw (1X)67%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    50%

    Fair odds

    2.02

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Portimonense or draw (1X)67%
    • Under 2.5 goals52%
    • Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals48%
    • Bryan Giovanni Róchez Mejia to score26%
    • João Vitor Xavier de Almeida to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Portimonense38% probability@2.81PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
    • 1 · Portimonense38% probability@2.65BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
    • 1 · Portimonense38% probability@2.65BetssonEV+1%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · PortimonenseX2 · Leixões
    Betsafe
    EV+ 1%
    2.65    		3.102.52
    Betsson
    EV+ 1%
    2.65    		3.102.52
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 1%
    2.65    		3.102.52
    Paddy Power2.453.102.63
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 7%
    2.81    		3.372.53

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 09:37

    Odds movement

    1+8 %
    37 %32 %

    2.61 → 2.81

    X+2 %
    31 %26 %

    3.30 → 3.37

    2-5 %
    40 %35 %

    2.65 → 2.53

    Over 2,5+1 %
    49 %44 %

    2.04 → 2.06

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 22/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    3 matches
    Portimonense 0Draw 0Leixões 3
    Goals: 1–7 (⌀ 2,7)

    Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Leixões
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Portimonense (2–0)
    Leixões (3–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Portimonense
    Samuel Neves Bengue: 70 passningar, xT 0.1BengueJarleysom Ferreira de Amurim: 59 passningar, xT 0.07AmurimMarlon Galvão Oliveira Júnior: 45 passningar, xT 0.1JúniorJoao Reis: 43 passningar, xT 0.5ReisJoão Vitor Xavier de Almeida: 42 passningar, xT 0.05AlmeidaJoão Diogo Pancadas Casimiro: 36 passningar, xT -0.02CasimiroTiago Filipe Prazeres Ferreira: 29 passningar, xT 0.17FerreiraEdney Henrique Santos da Silva: 27 passningar, xT 0.03SilvaDanio Mamadi Djassi: 22 passningar, xT 0DjassiEduardo dos Santos Haesler: 21 passningar, xT 0.03HaeslerYanis Franklin da Rocha: 14 passningar, xT 0.14Rocha
    Leixões
    Amadu Balde: 139 passningar, xT 0.03BaldeHugo Miguel Lourido Faria: 124 passningar, xT 0.1FariaMatheus de Mello Costa: 104 passningar, xT 0.09CostaCláudio Vítor Rodrigues Araújo: 88 passningar, xT 0.24AraújoPaulo Sérgio Mota: 72 passningar, xT 0.27MotaSimão Pedro Soares Azevedo: 62 passningar, xT 0.81AzevedoRafael Avelino Pereira Pinto Barbosa: 58 passningar, xT 0.3BarbosaIgor Stefanovic: 52 passningar, xT 0.05StefanovicLourenco Henriques: 51 passningar, xT 0.08HenriquesSalvador José Milhazes Agra: 41 passningar, xT 0.05AgraJosé Manuel Bica Reis: 25 passningar, xT -0.07Reis
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Portimonense
    Samuel Neves Bengue: 70 passningar, xT 0.1BengueJarleysom Ferreira de Amurim: 59 passningar, xT 0.07AmurimMarlon Galvão Oliveira Júnior: 45 passningar, xT 0.1JúniorJoao Reis: 43 passningar, xT 0.5ReisJoão Vitor Xavier de Almeida: 42 passningar, xT 0.05AlmeidaJoão Diogo Pancadas Casimiro: 36 passningar, xT -0.02CasimiroTiago Filipe Prazeres Ferreira: 29 passningar, xT 0.17FerreiraEdney Henrique Santos da Silva: 27 passningar, xT 0.03SilvaDanio Mamadi Djassi: 22 passningar, xT 0DjassiEduardo dos Santos Haesler: 21 passningar, xT 0.03HaeslerYanis Franklin da Rocha: 14 passningar, xT 0.14Rocha
    Leixões
    Amadu Balde: 139 passningar, xT 0.03BaldeHugo Miguel Lourido Faria: 124 passningar, xT 0.1FariaMatheus de Mello Costa: 104 passningar, xT 0.09CostaCláudio Vítor Rodrigues Araújo: 88 passningar, xT 0.24AraújoPaulo Sérgio Mota: 72 passningar, xT 0.27MotaSimão Pedro Soares Azevedo: 62 passningar, xT 0.81AzevedoRafael Avelino Pereira Pinto Barbosa: 58 passningar, xT 0.3BarbosaIgor Stefanovic: 52 passningar, xT 0.05StefanovicLourenco Henriques: 51 passningar, xT 0.08HenriquesSalvador José Milhazes Agra: 41 passningar, xT 0.05AgraJosé Manuel Bica Reis: 25 passningar, xT -0.07Reis
    The goalkeepersDanio Mamadi Djassi (Portimonense)Igor Stefanovic (Leixões)
    Saves18
    Save %100%62%
    xG prevented100%42%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Portimonense
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Leixões
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Portimonense vs Leixões according to our model?

    The model gives Portimonense a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Portimonense 38%, draw 29%, Leixões 32%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.