Liga Portugal 223°13 km/h

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    PortimonensePortimonense
    2–0
    VizelaVizela
    The model's lean: 2 · Vizela (39%)Best value by the model: 1 · Portimonense @ 3.43 (+7 %)

    Portimonense – Vizela · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · Portimonense 31%X 30%39% Vizela · 2

    Analysis: Portimonense – Vizela

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Three head-to-head draws since the start of 2023 might suggest a level playing field between Portimonense SC and Vizela, but the model tells a different story. Vizela's 39% chance of victory, the highest of any outcome, suggests they're better positioned to take three points. While the head-to-head results have been deadlocked, this small sample size doesn't reflect the current dynamics of both squads.

    Vizela steps onto the pitch with a slight edge in expected goals at 1.35 compared to Portimonense SC's 1.15. This suggests that Vizela not only creates more opportunities but also possesses the firepower to capitalize on them. Although the most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw at 13%, the next likeliest, a 0-1 win for Vizela at 11%, underscores the potential for the visitors to nick a victory.

    Portimonense SC, meanwhile, finds an intriguing angle with the value offered by bookmakers. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all present odds of 3.35 for a home win, which the model considers a 4% edge. While it's a risky proposition given the model's preference for Vizela, the value is undeniable for those looking to back an underdog at home.

    Weather conditions aren't mentioned, so we assess the match under typical circumstances. Despite a modest 46% chance for over 2.5 goals, the slender margins in expected goals make a low-scoring affair plausible. The probabilities suggest aligning with a 1-0 or 0-1 outcome.

    Vizela's higher win probability and marginally superior expected goals knock them into the favourite's chair, but punters sniffing for value will notice the 31% home win chance. The savvy bettor might just be tempted by those tasty odds on Portimonense SC, but it's Vizela that carries the model's backing for three points.

    PortimonensePortimonense
    Form LLWDW
    Key players
    • Tamble Ulisses Folgado MonteiroFxG 0.58 · xT 0.00
    • Thauan LaraFxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
    • Danio Mamadi DjassiLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.15
    VizelaVizela
    Form WDWLW
    Key players
    • Mohamed Aiman Moukhliss AgmirCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
    • Manuel Garrido ÁlvarezFxG 0.36 · xT 0.00
    • Thio Natanaël Amos NtollaLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.15
    Final score
    2 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Portimonense 31% · Draw 30% · Vizela 39%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - FC VizelaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,46fair 10,81-12 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Portimonense SCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 10,62fair 14,79-28 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Portimonense – Vizela

    Predicted score matrix

    Vizela →
    Portimonense →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.6%
    0–110.7%
    0–27.5%
    0–33.4%
    0–4+1.5%
    1
    1–09.1%
    1–113.1%
    1–28.6%
    1–33.9%
    1–4+1.8%
    2
    2–05.4%
    2–17.3%
    2–24.9%
    2–32.2%
    2–4+1.0%
    3
    3–02.1%
    3–12.8%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–00.8%
    4+–11.0%
    4+–20.7%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.1-29%
    5. 5.0-09%
    Expected goals
    1,15–1,35
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @1.79
    Over 2,546%
    @2.10

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Vizela or draw (X2)69%
    • Under 3.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.93

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Vizela or draw (X2)69%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Yassin Enzo Fortuné to score20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Welinton Júnior Ferreira dos Santos to score21%
    • João Diogo Pancadas Casimiro to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Portimonense31% probability@3.43PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · PortimonenseX2 · Vizela
    Betsafe2.803.002.45
    Betsson2.803.002.45
    Nordicbet2.803.002.45
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 7%
    3.43    		3.282.19

    Odds updated 16 Aug, 09:35

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Vizela win since 9 August — the odds have shortened from 2.72 to 2.19 (−19%).

    1+32 %
    41 %21 %

    2.59 → 3.43

    X+2 %
    39 %19 %

    3.22 → 3.28

    2-19 %
    50 %30 %

    2.72 → 2.19

    Over 2,5+1 %
    57 %37 %

    2.01 → 2.04

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    3 matches
    Portimonense 0Draw 3Vizela 0
    Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Vizela
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Vizela (1–0)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Vizela
    Jean Pierre Rhyner: 45 passningar, xT 0.08RhynerBright Osuoha Godwin: 38 passningar, xT 0.15GodwinLuís Carlos da Rocha Rodrigues: 32 passningar, xT 0.07RodriguesAlfred Lenin Caicedo Mina: 31 passningar, xT 0.09MinaMiguel Pires: 30 passningar, xT 0.04PiresAntonio Gomis Alemañ: 24 passningar, xT 0.01AlemañThio Natanaël Amos Ntolla: 21 passningar, xT 0.2NtollaAngel Bastunov: 18 passningar, xT -0.11BastunovGiovani Bamba: 18 passningar, xT 0BambaMatías Rafael Lacava González: 14 passningar, xT 0.16GonzálezRodrigo Ramos: 9 passningar, xT 0.1Ramos
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Vizela
    Jean Pierre Rhyner: 45 passningar, xT 0.08RhynerBright Osuoha Godwin: 38 passningar, xT 0.15GodwinLuís Carlos da Rocha Rodrigues: 32 passningar, xT 0.07RodriguesAlfred Lenin Caicedo Mina: 31 passningar, xT 0.09MinaMiguel Pires: 30 passningar, xT 0.04PiresAntonio Gomis Alemañ: 24 passningar, xT 0.01AlemañThio Natanaël Amos Ntolla: 21 passningar, xT 0.2NtollaAngel Bastunov: 18 passningar, xT -0.11BastunovGiovani Bamba: 18 passningar, xT 0BambaMatías Rafael Lacava González: 14 passningar, xT 0.16GonzálezRodrigo Ramos: 9 passningar, xT 0.1Ramos
    The goalkeepersPortimonenseAntonio Gomis Alemañ (Vizela)
    Saves–3
    Save %–100%
    xG prevented–100%
    Claims–0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Portimonense
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Vizela
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Portimonense vs Vizela according to our model?

    The model gives Vizela a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Portimonense 31%, draw 30%, Vizela 39%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    ChavesChaves
    1–4
    AcadémicaAcadémica
    1 41%X 28%2 30%
    The model missed the outcome
    PenafielPenafiel
    0–1
    PortimonensePortimonense
    1 40%X 29%2 31%
    The model missed the outcome
    VizelaVizela
    1–0
    União de LeiriaUnião de Leiria
    1 39%X 30%2 32%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.