Liga Portugal 220°16 km/h

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    Porto BPorto B
    0–3
    PenafielPenafiel
    The model's lean: 2 · Penafiel (40%)

    Porto B – Penafiel · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · Porto B 31%X 29%40% Penafiel · 2

    Analysis: Porto B – Penafiel

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    TEXT:

    A balanced contest emerges as Porto B hosts Penafiel, with the model highlighting a subtle edge for the visitors. Penafiel's scoring streak in their last eight league matches contrasts with Porto B's mixed head-to-head results against them. The model assigns a 40% win probability to Penafiel, suggesting a slight advantage despite the tight expected goals tally of 1.22 to 1.21 in favor of the hosts.

    The most probable outcomes, with 1-1 and 1-0 at 13% and 10% respectively, underscore the match's potential to remain a close affair. Both teams are equally poised to find the net, with a 50% chance for both to score, yet the over 2.5 goals probability sits at only 44%. This scenario hints at a restrained goal count, aligning with Penafiel's ability to consistently score but not necessarily run away with matches.

    Porto B's past encounters with Penafiel show a slight edge with two wins out of four matches since 2023. However, given the small sample size, this head-to-head record holds less weight against the current form of both sides. Penafiel's recent offensive consistency could tip the scales, even as Porto B aims to leverage home advantage.

    Given the model's 40% win probability for the visitors, backing Penafiel presents a value angle. With the stats pointing towards a narrow victory or a draw, backing Penafiel aligns with the data-driven insight as they look to prolong their goal-scoring form.

    Porto BPorto B
    Form WWWLW
    Key players
    • Tiago AndradeLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.48
    • Trofim MelnichenkoFxG 0.55 · xT 0.08
    • Antonio RibeiroCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
    PenafielPenafiel
    Form WLWLW
    Key players
    • Joseph Thibaut SeryFxG 0.35 · xT 0.03
    • Raúl Toni Alcaina FenollosaFxG 0.31 · xT 0.05
    • Alejandro Carbonell VallésCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.04
    Final score
    0 – 3
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Porto B 31% · Draw 29% · Penafiel 40%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - FC Porto BBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 11,58fair 13,16-12 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - FC PenafielBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,21fair 13,44-39 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Porto B – Penafiel

    Predicted score matrix

    Penafiel →
    Porto B →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.1%
    0–110.2%
    0–26.4%
    0–32.6%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–010.3%
    1–113.4%
    1–27.9%
    1–33.2%
    1–4+1.2%
    2
    2–06.6%
    2–17.9%
    2–24.8%
    2–31.9%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–02.7%
    3–13.2%
    3–22.0%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–01.1%
    4+–11.3%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.0-110%
    4. 4.0-09%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,22–1,21
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,556%
    @1.75
    Over 2,544%
    @2.25

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Penafiel or draw (X2)64%
    • Under 3.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    50%

    Fair odds

    2.02

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Penafiel or draw (X2)64%
    • Under 2.5 goals56%
    • Raúl Toni Alcaina Fenollosa to score19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals44%
    • Bernardo Pinto Lima to score26%
    • João Pedro Moreira Teixeira to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Penafiel40% probability@2.80Paddy PowerEV+12%reference odds
    • Over 3.523% probability@4.50Paddy PowerEV+3%reference odds
    • X · Draw29% probability@3.47PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Porto BX2 · Penafiel
    Betsafe3.103.202.20
    Betsson3.103.202.20
    Nordicbet3.103.202.20
    Paddy Power2.403.00
    EV+ 12%
    2.80
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 1%
    3.30
    EV+ 1%
    3.47    		2.18

    Odds updated 30 Aug, 10:35

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Penafiel win since 25 August — the odds have shortened from 2.39 to 2.18 (−9%).

    1+14 %
    36 %26 %

    2.90 → 3.30

    X+4 %
    33 %23 %

    3.33 → 3.47

    2-9 %
    46 %36 %

    2.39 → 2.18

    Over 2,50 %
    50 %40 %

    2.09 → 2.10

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Porto B 2Draw 1Penafiel 1
    Goals: 5–6 (⌀ 2,8)

    Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Penafiel have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Porto B
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Porto B (2–3)
    Penafiel (2–0)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Porto B
    Dinis Andrade Rodrigues: 66 passningar, xT 0.34RodriguesDominik Prpić: 64 passningar, xT 0.14PrpićJoão de Oliveira Afonso: 61 passningar, xT 0.04AfonsoLuis Gomes: 53 passningar, xT 0.12GomesMartim Cunha: 47 passningar, xT 0.11CunhaAntonio Ribeiro: 45 passningar, xT 0.07RibeiroTiago Ferreira: 43 passningar, xT -0.01FerreiraTiago Gonçalves Silva: 43 passningar, xT 0.01SilvaBernardo Pinto Lima: 38 passningar, xT 0.09LimaMateus Souto Mide: 28 passningar, xT 0.38MideDuarte Lopes Cunha: 18 passningar, xT -0.26Cunha
    Penafiel
    Adrián Hernández Hernández: 37 passningar, xT 0.06HernándezAlejandro Carbonell Vallés: 36 passningar, xT 0.02VallésJaime Sánchez Muñoz: 32 passningar, xT 0.03MuñozPedro Miguel Cunha Sá: 31 passningar, xT 0.02SáCláudio Moreira da Silva: 30 passningar, xT 0.07SilvaTeddy Alloh: 24 passningar, xT 0.04AllohMiguel Oliveira: 18 passningar, xT 0.06OliveiraJoão Gonçalo Teixeira Pinto: 17 passningar, xT 0.27PintoGoncalo Negrao: 11 passningar, xT 0.07NegraoAntonio David Álvarez Rey: 10 passningar, xT -0.03ReyMax Svensson Río: 10 passningar, xT -0.01Río
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Porto B
    Dinis Andrade Rodrigues: 66 passningar, xT 0.34RodriguesDominik Prpić: 64 passningar, xT 0.14PrpićJoão de Oliveira Afonso: 61 passningar, xT 0.04AfonsoLuis Gomes: 53 passningar, xT 0.12GomesMartim Cunha: 47 passningar, xT 0.11CunhaAntonio Ribeiro: 45 passningar, xT 0.07RibeiroTiago Ferreira: 43 passningar, xT -0.01FerreiraTiago Gonçalves Silva: 43 passningar, xT 0.01SilvaBernardo Pinto Lima: 38 passningar, xT 0.09LimaMateus Souto Mide: 28 passningar, xT 0.38MideDuarte Lopes Cunha: 18 passningar, xT -0.26Cunha
    Penafiel
    Adrián Hernández Hernández: 37 passningar, xT 0.06HernándezAlejandro Carbonell Vallés: 36 passningar, xT 0.02VallésJaime Sánchez Muñoz: 32 passningar, xT 0.03MuñozPedro Miguel Cunha Sá: 31 passningar, xT 0.02SáCláudio Moreira da Silva: 30 passningar, xT 0.07SilvaTeddy Alloh: 24 passningar, xT 0.04AllohMiguel Oliveira: 18 passningar, xT 0.06OliveiraJoão Gonçalo Teixeira Pinto: 17 passningar, xT 0.27PintoGoncalo Negrao: 11 passningar, xT 0.07NegraoAntonio David Álvarez Rey: 10 passningar, xT -0.03ReyMax Svensson Río: 10 passningar, xT -0.01Río
    The goalkeepersJoão de Oliveira Afonso (Porto B)Miguel Oliveira (Penafiel)
    Saves84
    Save %73%100%
    xG prevented72%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Porto B
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Penafiel
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Porto B vs Penafiel according to our model?

    The model gives Penafiel a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Porto B 31%, draw 29%, Penafiel 40%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    PortimonensePortimonense
    1 40%X 29%2 31%
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    VizelaVizela
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.