Liga Portugal 220°15 km/h

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    SP
    Sporting CP II
    2–1
    FarenseFarense
    The model's lean: 1 · Sporting CP II (39%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 5.00 (+16 %)

    Sporting CP II – Farense · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · Sporting CP II 39%X 31%30% Farense · 2

    Analysis: Sporting CP II – Farense

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT: A 39% chance. That's the probability of Sporting CP II claiming victory against Farense according to the model, signaling a lean towards the hosts. The expected goal tally also tilts in their favor: 1.44 to Farense’s 1.01. These figures suggest a narrow edge for Sporting CP II, yet the numbers also shout caution. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 13%, closely followed by a 1-0 win for the hosts at 12%.

    The over/under 2.5 goals market hangs in balance, with only a 44% chance of seeing the net ripple more than twice. With both teams to score sitting at a near-even 49%, this suggests a tight, possibly low-scoring affair. The recent form should weigh more than any head-to-head data given the limited sample size, reinforcing that the hosts may have a slight upper hand.

    From a betting perspective, the value lies with Sporting CP II. Offered at odds of 2.55 by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the model’s 39% win probability aligns perfectly with the bookmakers' price. Though the edge is nominal (0%), for those seeking a strategic play, backing the hosts stands as the sharpest angle in this matchup.

    Sporting CP II
    Form L
    FarenseFarense
    Form DLWWD
    Key players
    • André Miguel Arsénio CandeiasRWxG 0.61 · xT 0.02
    • Toni Herrero OlivaLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
    • Gonçalo Filipe Oliveira SilvaCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.03
    Final score
    2 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Sporting CP II 39% · Draw 31% · Farense 30%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - FarenseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 10,54fair 19,94-47 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Sporting CP II – Farense

    Predicted score matrix

    Farense →
    Sporting CP II →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.0%
    0–18.3%
    0–24.4%
    0–31.5%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–012.1%
    1–112.9%
    1–26.3%
    1–32.1%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–09.0%
    2–19.0%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–04.3%
    3–14.4%
    3–22.2%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.1%
    4+–12.2%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-09%
    5. 5.2-09%
    Expected goals
    1,44–1,01
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,556%
    @1.66
    Over 2,544%
    @2.50EV+11%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Sporting CP II or draw (1X)74%
    • Under 3.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.77

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Sporting CP II or draw (1X)74%
    • Under 2.5 goals56%
    • Guilherme Meireles Pires to score8%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals44%
    • Balla Sangaré to score22%
    • Jair Semedo Monteiro to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 3.523% probability@5.00Paddy PowerEV+16%reference odds
    • Over 2.544% probability@2.50Paddy PowerEV+11%reference odds
    • 1 · Sporting CP II39% probability@2.71PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Sporting CP IIX2 · Farense
    Betsafe
    EV+ 0%
    2.55    		3.052.65
    Betsson
    EV+ 0%
    2.55    		3.052.65
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 0%
    2.55    		3.052.65
    Paddy Power2.452.802.88
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 6%
    2.71    		3.132.79

    Odds updated 30 Aug, 06:31

    Odds movement

    1+3 %
    38 %33 %

    2.64 → 2.71

    X+1 %
    33 %28 %

    3.11 → 3.13

    2+1 %
    37 %32 %

    2.75 → 2.79

    Over 2,5+4 %
    46 %41 %

    2.16 → 2.25

    Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Farense
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Sporting CP II (0–2)
    Farense (6–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sporting CP II
    Eduardo Manuel de Freitas Monteiro Ferreira Felicíssimo: 58 passningar, xT 0.05FelicíssimoKauã Wellhington Oliveira Pinto: 57 passningar, xT 0.1PintoMateo Tanlongo: 43 passningar, xT 0.02TanlongoAtanásio Afonso Miranda Cunha: 38 passningar, xT 0.07CunhaRodrigo Miguel Amores Dias: 34 passningar, xT 0.12DiasRafael Ribeiro Mota: 25 passningar, xT 0.03MotaGuilherme Meireles Pires: 25 passningar, xT -0.01PiresSamuel Loureiro Carvalho Justo: 23 passningar, xT 0.06JustoMauro Meireles Couto: 20 passningar, xT 0.03CoutoMiguel Monteiro Alves: 18 passningar, xT 0.06AlvesRodrigo Prata Deusdado Rodrigues: 11 passningar, xT 0.04Rodrigues
    Farense
    Nermin Zolotić: 171 passningar, xT 1.42ZolotićGonçalo Filipe Oliveira Silva: 115 passningar, xT 0.07SilvaCarlos Alexandre Reis Pinto: 106 passningar, xT 0.41PintoToni Herrero Oliva: 90 passningar, xT 0.24OlivaCláudio Falcão Santos: 88 passningar, xT 0.04SantosMattheus de Andrade Gama de Oliveira: 88 passningar, xT -0.06OliveiraMiguel Pedro Miranda de Oliveira Menino: 75 passningar, xT 0.04MeninoFabijan Buntić: 50 passningar, xT -1.16BuntićAndré Miguel Arsénio Candeias: 38 passningar, xT 0.05CandeiasJoão Pedro Moreira Resende: 32 passningar, xT 0.26ResendeJoseph Nduquidi Diazongua Nfingui: 29 passningar, xT -0.01Nfingui
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sporting CP II
    Eduardo Manuel de Freitas Monteiro Ferreira Felicíssimo: 58 passningar, xT 0.05FelicíssimoKauã Wellhington Oliveira Pinto: 57 passningar, xT 0.1PintoMateo Tanlongo: 43 passningar, xT 0.02TanlongoAtanásio Afonso Miranda Cunha: 38 passningar, xT 0.07CunhaRodrigo Miguel Amores Dias: 34 passningar, xT 0.12DiasRafael Ribeiro Mota: 25 passningar, xT 0.03MotaGuilherme Meireles Pires: 25 passningar, xT -0.01PiresSamuel Loureiro Carvalho Justo: 23 passningar, xT 0.06JustoMauro Meireles Couto: 20 passningar, xT 0.03CoutoMiguel Monteiro Alves: 18 passningar, xT 0.06AlvesRodrigo Prata Deusdado Rodrigues: 11 passningar, xT 0.04Rodrigues
    Farense
    Nermin Zolotić: 171 passningar, xT 1.42ZolotićGonçalo Filipe Oliveira Silva: 115 passningar, xT 0.07SilvaCarlos Alexandre Reis Pinto: 106 passningar, xT 0.41PintoToni Herrero Oliva: 90 passningar, xT 0.24OlivaCláudio Falcão Santos: 88 passningar, xT 0.04SantosMattheus de Andrade Gama de Oliveira: 88 passningar, xT -0.06OliveiraMiguel Pedro Miranda de Oliveira Menino: 75 passningar, xT 0.04MeninoFabijan Buntić: 50 passningar, xT -1.16BuntićAndré Miguel Arsénio Candeias: 38 passningar, xT 0.05CandeiasJoão Pedro Moreira Resende: 32 passningar, xT 0.26ResendeJoseph Nduquidi Diazongua Nfingui: 29 passningar, xT -0.01Nfingui
    The goalkeepersGuilherme Meireles Pires (Sporting CP II)Fabijan Buntić (Farense)
    Saves16
    Save %33%75%
    xG prevented17%69%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Sporting CP II
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Farense
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Sporting CP II vs Farense according to our model?

    The model gives Sporting CP II a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sporting CP II 39%, draw 31%, Farense 30%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.