01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Chaves or draw (X2)68%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
Liga Portugal 2
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Sporting CP BPossession controlvs
ChavesPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Chaves (42%)
Sporting CP B – Chaves · Liga Portugal 2
1 · Sporting CP B 31%X 27%42% Chaves · 2
31%
27%
42%
Analysis: Sporting CP B – Chaves
Sofia Andersson · · How the predictions work
The model gives a solid 42% probability to Chaves walking away with three points against Sporting CP U19, and it's not just the numbers that suggest the visitors are perched for a win. Chaves holds a slim but telling three-point advantage in the standings and a robust 51.8 xPoints compared to Sporting CP U19's 40.7. These figures do more than hint; they nudge us toward expecting a resilient performance from Chaves in this clash.
Sporting CP U19's playing style of possession control might mirror Chaves', but the latter's slightly superior xG of 1.5 per match suggests they're more efficient at crafting and converting chances. Despite only a small sample of head-to-head encounters—just two matches—the historical edge leans Chaves' way, having secured a win and a draw. With Sporting CP U19 still searching for a breakthrough victory in this matchup, the psychological edge leans toward the visitors.
A close look at the numbers reveals that a 1-1 scoreline holds a 13% probability, the most likely result on paper. However, with Chaves more adept at keeping opponents at bay, reflected in their lower xGA of 1.1, the 0-1 scoreline (10% probability) is a tempting consideration. With the likelihood of both teams scoring sitting at 53%, but the over/under 2.5 goals split nearly down the middle, a low-scoring affair feels like the smart lean.
For the savvy punter, there's palpable value in backing Chaves with odds of 2.63 at Pinnacle, offering a 10% edge based on the model's 42% probability. This represents a prime opportunity, as the odds stack up favorably against the underlying statistics and recent form narratives. If you're looking to place a bet, that's where the sharp money might land.
Sporting CP BForm LLLLD
League ranking xG #14xGA #10xT #5xP/match #14Points #11
Key players
- Rafael Ferreira NelFxG 0.47 · xT 0.05
- Flávio Ferreira GonçalvesLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.13
- Rodrigo Duarte RibeiroFxG 0.44 · xT 0.09
ChavesForm LWLLW
League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #8xP/match #4Points #9
Key players
- Roberto Porfírio Maximiano RodrigoFxG 0.41 · xT 0.03
- Bruno RodriguesCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
- Rui Filipe Caetano MouraRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.22
Match prediction: Sporting CP B – Chaves
Predicted score matrix
Chaves →
Sporting CP B →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.9%
0–110.1%
0–27.2%
0–33.3%
0–4+1.6%
1
1–08.7%
1–112.9%
1–28.7%
1–34.0%
1–4+1.9%
2
2–05.4%
2–17.5%
2–25.2%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–02.2%
3–13.0%
3–22.1%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.2%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-29%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,20–1,38
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.86
Over 2,548%
@1.93
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Chaves or draw (X2)68%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Jorge Delgado Caballero to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Jorge Delgado Caballero to score26%
- Talysson Moreira Reis to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Chaves42% probability@2.77PinnacleEV+16%
- 2 · Chaves42% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+9%
- 2 · Chaves42% probability@2.62BetssonEV+9%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sporting CP B | X | 2 · Chaves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.58 | 3.15 | EV+ 9% 2.62 |
| Betsson | 2.58 | 3.15 | EV+ 9% 2.62 |
| Nordicbet | 2.58 | 3.15 | EV+ 9% 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.45 | 3.40 | EV+ 16% 2.77 |
Odds updated 12 Aug, 15:54
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Sporting CP B win since 9 August — the odds have shortened from 2.74 to 2.45 (−11%).
1-11 %
39 %34 %
2.74 → 2.45
X+2 %
30 %25 %
3.32 → 3.40
2+13 %
38 %33 %
2.45 → 2.77
Over 2,5+1 %
52 %47 %
1.90 → 1.93
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesSporting CP B 0Draw 1Chaves 1
Goals: 0–1 (⌀ 0,5)
Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.
Sporting CP B (41–33)
Chaves (42–40)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sporting CP B
Chaves
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sporting CP B
Chaves
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sporting CP B | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42 | 45 |
| xPoints | 40.7 | 51.8 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Sporting CP B | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| xT per match | 0.92 | 0.9 |
| xTA per match | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 366 | 339 |
| Passes against per match | 292 | 294 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.9 | 25.8 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Sporting CP B | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 4.7 | 4.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| Other | Sporting CP B | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Diego Callai Silva (Sporting CP B) | Josimar José Évora Dias (Chaves) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 63 | 44 |
| Save % | 72% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 36% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sporting CP B vs Chaves according to our model?
The model gives Chaves a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sporting CP B 31%, draw 27%, Chaves 42%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.