Liga Portugal 226°12 km/h

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    TondelaTondela
    3–0
    Porto BPorto B
    The model's lean: 1 · Tondela (50%)Best value by the model: 2 · Porto B @ 5.11 (+16 %)

    Tondela – Porto B · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · Tondela 50%X 27%23% Porto B · 2

    Analysis: Tondela – Porto B

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Tondela and Porto B have faced off twice since 2023, with both encounters ending in a draw. While this small head-to-head sample gives us a glimpse of competitiveness, it's the current form and expected goals that shape the real narrative. The hosts are grappling with a slump, having lost three consecutive matches, and they'll need to break this pattern to capitalize on their 50% win probability.

    Tondela's tactical approach has often focused on controlling the game through possession, but their recent form suggests vulnerabilities, especially when transitioning from attack to defense. Porto B, despite being the underdogs with a 23% win probability, might exploit these gaps. Their style, often characterized by swift counter-attacks, could unsettle a home side desperate for a win.

    The model predicts a tight contest, with the most likely scorelines being 1-1 and 1-0. The expected goals tally leans towards Tondela at 1.46 against Porto B's 1.04, indicating a slight edge for the hosts in potential scoring opportunities. Yet, the over/under 2.5 goals is finely poised at 46%, suggesting a cautious approach to expecting a high-scoring affair. Both teams to score sits at an even 50%, reflecting the balance in attacking threats.

    In terms of a betting angle, there's value in backing the visitors at odds of 4.6 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet. The model sees a 5% edge here, which makes Porto B an intriguing underdog option. While Tondela might be slight favorites, the form book and these odds provide a compelling case for a potential upset.

    TondelaTondela
    Form WWLLL
    Key players
    • Joao MarcosFxG 0.40 · xT 0.03
    • CascavelRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.04
    • Joao AfonsoCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
    Porto BPorto B
    Form WWLWL
    Key players
    • Tiago AndradeLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.48
    • Trofim MelnichenkoFxG 0.41 · xT 0.05
    • Antonio RibeiroCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
    Final score
    3 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Tondela 50% · Draw 27% · Porto B 23%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - FC Porto BBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 16,83fair 18,55-9 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - TondelaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,76fair 9,50-39 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Tondela – Porto B

    Predicted score matrix

    Porto B →
    Tondela →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.6%
    0–18.2%
    0–24.4%
    0–31.5%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–011.6%
    1–112.8%
    1–26.5%
    1–32.2%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–08.8%
    2–19.1%
    2–24.7%
    2–31.6%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–04.3%
    3–14.4%
    3–22.3%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–02.2%
    4+–12.2%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-09%
    Expected goals
    1,46–1,04
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @1.92EV+1%
    Over 2,546%
    @2.00

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Tondela to win50%
    • Under 3.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    34%

    Fair odds

    2.96

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Tondela to win50%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Joseph Shaun Hodge to score20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Joseph Shaun Hodge to score20%
    • João Pedro Moreira Teixeira to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Porto B23% probability@5.11PinnacleEV+16%reference odds
    • 2 · Porto B23% probability@4.60BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
    • 2 · Porto B23% probability@4.60BetssonEV+5%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · TondelaX2 · Porto B
    Betsafe1.683.55
    EV+ 5%
    4.60
    Betsson1.683.55
    EV+ 5%
    4.60
    Nordicbet1.683.55
    EV+ 5%
    4.60
    Paddy Power1.753.504.00
    Pinnacle1.68
    EV+ 3%
    3.81
    EV+ 16%
    5.11

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 04:33

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    58 %53 %

    1.65 → 1.68

    X-1 %
    27 %22 %

    3.84 → 3.81

    2+5 %
    22 %17 %

    4.88 → 5.11

    Over 2,5+3 %
    53 %48 %

    1.86 → 1.92

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 03/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Tondela 0Draw 2Porto B 0
    Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 4)

    Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Tondela have lost 3 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Tondela
    Porto B
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Tondela (2–6)
    Porto B (2–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Tondela
    José María Pérez García: 149 passningar, xT 0.17GarcíaHugo Félix Sequeira: 140 passningar, xT 0.1SequeiraJosé Ricardo Avelar Ribeiro: 136 passningar, xT 0.83RibeiroRui Filipe Caetano Moura: 124 passningar, xT 0.33MouraJoao Afonso: 104 passningar, xT 0.18AfonsoCícero Clébson Alves Santana: 74 passningar, xT 0.15SantanaCascavel: 68 passningar, xT 0.14CascavelLucas Cañizares Conchello: 53 passningar, xT -0.01ConchelloHelder Tavares: 51 passningar, xT 0.11TavaresGastón Alejandro Novero: 49 passningar, xT 0.45NoveroBrayan Medina: 46 passningar, xT 0.03Medina
    Porto B
    Antonio Ribeiro: 123 passningar, xT 0.11RibeiroDinis Andrade Rodrigues: 122 passningar, xT 0.61RodriguesTiago Ferreira: 104 passningar, xT 0.04FerreiraJoão de Oliveira Afonso: 90 passningar, xT 0.06AfonsoTiago Gonçalves Silva: 78 passningar, xT -0.05SilvaMartim Cunha: 76 passningar, xT 0.17CunhaBernardo Pinto Lima: 65 passningar, xT 0.23LimaDominik Prpić: 64 passningar, xT 0.14PrpićLuis Gomes: 53 passningar, xT 0.12GomesMateus Souto Mide: 35 passningar, xT 0.41MideDuarte Lopes Cunha: 27 passningar, xT -0.29Cunha
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Tondela
    José María Pérez García: 149 passningar, xT 0.17GarcíaHugo Félix Sequeira: 140 passningar, xT 0.1SequeiraJosé Ricardo Avelar Ribeiro: 136 passningar, xT 0.83RibeiroRui Filipe Caetano Moura: 124 passningar, xT 0.33MouraJoao Afonso: 104 passningar, xT 0.18AfonsoCícero Clébson Alves Santana: 74 passningar, xT 0.15SantanaCascavel: 68 passningar, xT 0.14CascavelLucas Cañizares Conchello: 53 passningar, xT -0.01ConchelloHelder Tavares: 51 passningar, xT 0.11TavaresGastón Alejandro Novero: 49 passningar, xT 0.45NoveroBrayan Medina: 46 passningar, xT 0.03Medina
    Porto B
    Antonio Ribeiro: 123 passningar, xT 0.11RibeiroDinis Andrade Rodrigues: 122 passningar, xT 0.61RodriguesTiago Ferreira: 104 passningar, xT 0.04FerreiraJoão de Oliveira Afonso: 90 passningar, xT 0.06AfonsoTiago Gonçalves Silva: 78 passningar, xT -0.05SilvaMartim Cunha: 76 passningar, xT 0.17CunhaBernardo Pinto Lima: 65 passningar, xT 0.23LimaDominik Prpić: 64 passningar, xT 0.14PrpićLuis Gomes: 53 passningar, xT 0.12GomesMateus Souto Mide: 35 passningar, xT 0.41MideDuarte Lopes Cunha: 27 passningar, xT -0.29Cunha
    The goalkeepersLucas Cañizares Conchello (Tondela)João de Oliveira Afonso (Porto B)
    Saves810
    Save %73%63%
    xG prevented23%38%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Tondela
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Porto B
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Tondela vs Porto B according to our model?

    The model gives Tondela a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tondela 50%, draw 27%, Porto B 23%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.