Liga Portugal 219°14 km/h

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    União de LeiriaUnião de Leiria
    2–0
    TondelaTondela
    The model's lean: 1 · União de Leiria (45%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.10 (+8 %)

    União de Leiria – Tondela · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · União de Leiria 45%X 27%28% Tondela · 2

    Analysis: União de Leiria – Tondela

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    A tight contest looms as União de Leiria hosts Tondela, with both sides well aware of the stakes. The model gives the home side a 45% chance of victory, signaling a slight edge in their favor. Despite the modest advantage, the most likely outcome remains a 1-1 draw at 12%, closely followed by a 1-0 win for the hosts at 10%. These scorelines hint at a game that might be decided by a single goal or a moment of defensive lapse, underscoring the importance of defensive control for both teams.

    Leiria's expected goals tally sits at 1.59, suggesting they will create more opportunities than the visitors, whose figure is 1.14. This aligns with the model's lean towards the hosts. However, Tondela can't be discounted, as their 28% win probability reflects a team capable of springing a surprise. The head-to-head record since 2023 is split, with each side having claimed a victory in their two encounters, a small sample size that tempers its relevance compared to current form and expected goals.

    The over/under 2.5 goals prediction is finely balanced at 51%, barely leaning towards the over. This, coupled with a 54% chance of both teams finding the net, suggests a match that could see goals from both sides, yet not in abundance. The expected tactical caution from both teams adds weight to the likelihood of a low-scoring affair, with defensive discipline likely playing a critical role in deciding the outcome.

    For those angling for value, the home win at odds of 2.4 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offers an attractive proposition. The model’s 45% probability against these odds presents an 8% edge, highlighting a potentially profitable opportunity for the risk-averse bettor who values stability over flashy, high-risk wagers.

    União de LeiriaUnião de Leiria
    Form LLDLL
    Key players
    • Juan MunozFxG 0.39 · xT 0.01
    • Marc BaroLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.23
    • Marcelo dos Santos FerreiraCBxG 0.37 · xT 0.07
    TondelaTondela
    Form LWWLL
    Key players
    • Joao MarcosFxG 0.44 · xT 0.03
    • CascavelRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.03
    • José María Pérez GarcíaLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
    Final score
    2 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: União de Leiria 45% · Draw 27% · Tondela 28%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - União de LeiriaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,82fair 7,82+0 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - TondelaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 11,20fair 14,98-25 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: União de Leiria – Tondela

    Predicted score matrix

    Tondela →
    União de Leiria →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.9%
    0–17.1%
    0–24.3%
    0–31.6%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–010.0%
    1–112.2%
    1–26.8%
    1–32.6%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–08.2%
    2–19.4%
    2–25.4%
    2–32.0%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–04.3%
    3–15.0%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–02.5%
    4+–12.8%
    4+–21.6%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,59–1,14
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,549%
    @1.79
    Over 2,551%
    @2.10EV+2%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • União de Leiria to win45%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.69

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • União de Leiria to win45%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Juan Muñoz Muñoz to score20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Juan Muñoz Muñoz to score20%
    • Daniel Borges da Silva to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 2.551% probability@2.10Paddy PowerEV+8%reference odds
    • Over 2.551% probability@2.05PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
    • 1 · União de Leiria45% probability@2.30Paddy PowerEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · União de LeiriaX2 · Tondela
    Betsafe2.183.153.15
    Betsson2.183.153.15
    Nordicbet2.183.153.15
    Paddy Power
    EV+ 4%
    2.30    		3.252.75
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 3%
    2.29    		3.373.17

    Odds updated 28 Aug, 10:29

    Odds movement

    1+5 %
    46 %41 %

    2.19 → 2.29

    X-1 %
    30 %25 %

    3.40 → 3.37

    2-1 %
    31 %26 %

    3.19 → 3.17

    Over 2,5+1 %
    49 %44 %

    2.02 → 2.05

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 26/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    União de Leiria 1Draw 0Tondela 1
    Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 3,5)

    Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    União de Leiria
    Tondela
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    União de Leiria (1–3)
    Tondela (2–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    União de Leiria
    Marcelo dos Santos Ferreira: 108 passningar, xT 0.13FerreiraVictor Rofino: 107 passningar, xT 0.21RofinoIbrahima Kalil Guirassy: 76 passningar, xT 0.07GuirassyMarc Baro: 62 passningar, xT 0.44BaroMiguel Ângelo Moreira Magalhães: 59 passningar, xT 0.4MagalhãesAlbert-Nicolas Lottin: 46 passningar, xT 0.16LottinJakob Odehnal: 40 passningar, xT 0.03OdehnalJuan Munoz: 25 passningar, xT 0.03MunozSamuel Ntanda-Lukisa: 22 passningar, xT -0.07Ntanda-LukisaDiogo Martins: 22 passningar, xT 0.07MartinsPablo Fernández Blanco: 19 passningar, xT -0.03Blanco
    Tondela
    Rui Filipe Caetano Moura: 98 passningar, xT 0.31MouraHugo Félix Sequeira: 88 passningar, xT 0.09SequeiraJosé María Pérez García: 84 passningar, xT 0.12GarcíaJosé Ricardo Avelar Ribeiro: 83 passningar, xT 0.49RibeiroCícero Clébson Alves Santana: 74 passningar, xT 0.15SantanaCascavel: 56 passningar, xT 0.07CascavelLucas Cañizares Conchello: 53 passningar, xT -0.01ConchelloJoao Afonso: 46 passningar, xT 0.09AfonsoBrayan Medina: 46 passningar, xT 0.03MedinaHelder Tavares: 36 passningar, xT 0.08TavaresChristian Marques: 34 passningar, xT 0.03Marques
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    União de Leiria
    Marcelo dos Santos Ferreira: 108 passningar, xT 0.13FerreiraVictor Rofino: 107 passningar, xT 0.21RofinoIbrahima Kalil Guirassy: 76 passningar, xT 0.07GuirassyMarc Baro: 62 passningar, xT 0.44BaroMiguel Ângelo Moreira Magalhães: 59 passningar, xT 0.4MagalhãesAlbert-Nicolas Lottin: 46 passningar, xT 0.16LottinJakob Odehnal: 40 passningar, xT 0.03OdehnalJuan Munoz: 25 passningar, xT 0.03MunozSamuel Ntanda-Lukisa: 22 passningar, xT -0.07Ntanda-LukisaDiogo Martins: 22 passningar, xT 0.07MartinsPablo Fernández Blanco: 19 passningar, xT -0.03Blanco
    Tondela
    Rui Filipe Caetano Moura: 98 passningar, xT 0.31MouraHugo Félix Sequeira: 88 passningar, xT 0.09SequeiraJosé María Pérez García: 84 passningar, xT 0.12GarcíaJosé Ricardo Avelar Ribeiro: 83 passningar, xT 0.49RibeiroCícero Clébson Alves Santana: 74 passningar, xT 0.15SantanaCascavel: 56 passningar, xT 0.07CascavelLucas Cañizares Conchello: 53 passningar, xT -0.01ConchelloJoao Afonso: 46 passningar, xT 0.09AfonsoBrayan Medina: 46 passningar, xT 0.03MedinaHelder Tavares: 36 passningar, xT 0.08TavaresChristian Marques: 34 passningar, xT 0.03Marques
    The goalkeepersJakob Odehnal (União de Leiria)Lucas Cañizares Conchello (Tondela)
    Saves78
    Save %70%73%
    xG prevented30%23%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    União de Leiria
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Tondela
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins União de Leiria vs Tondela according to our model?

    The model gives União de Leiria a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: União de Leiria 45%, draw 27%, Tondela 28%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.