Liga Portugal 223°1,8 mm13 km/h

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    VizelaVizela
    1–0
    FelgueirasFelgueiras
    The model's lean: 1 · Vizela (39%)Best value by the model: 2 · Felgueiras @ 3.61 (+14 %)

    Vizela – Felgueiras · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · Vizela 39%X 30%31% Felgueiras · 2

    Analysis: Vizela – Felgueiras

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    Felgueiras 1932 come into this clash with a formidable streak, unbeaten in their last six league outings. This consistency has been their backbone, suggesting an ability to grind out results even when the odds aren’t heavily in their favor. But Vizela, with a 39% win probability, still hold the slight upper hand according to the model. The most anticipated scoreline, a 1-1 draw at 14%, speaks to the closeness expected in this encounter.

    The expected goals metric further underscores this tight matchup, with Vizela at 1.23 and Felgueiras 1932 at 1.10. Both teams hover around the same attacking potential, indicating a likely low-scoring affair. The projection of just 41% for over 2.5 goals reinforces a cautious outlook on the goal front. For bettors, this suggests a lean towards the under, with neither side showing a propensity for high-scoring games.

    In head-to-head terms, the teams are evenly matched over their last four meetings. With Vizela claiming one win and Felgueiras another, the small sample size doesn't tilt things decidedly in either direction. Such balance in their direct clashes hints at another potentially tight contest, but with recent form and league performance on Felgueiras’s side, they might feel slightly more confident heading into this game.

    The sharpest edge for bettors might lie in the value odds for an away win at 3.2, offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With the model giving Felgueiras a 31% chance to triumph, there's a slim yet tangible value in backing the visitors. While not a guarantee, this slight edge could be enticing for those looking to back an in-form side at favorable odds.

    VizelaVizela
    Form LWLDW
    Key players
    • Matías Rafael Lacava GonzálezFxG 0.36 · xT 0.17
    • Giovani BambaFxG 0.04 · xT 0.00
    • Jean Pierre RhynerCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.19
    FelgueirasFelgueiras
    Form WDDDW
    Key players
    • Mario Rivas ViondiFxG 0.37 · xT 0.07
    • Henrique Manuel Neiva de Almeida MartinsFxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
    • Lucas da Costa DuarteFxG 0.22 · xT 0.01
    Final score
    1 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Vizela 39% · Draw 30% · Felgueiras 31%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Felgueiras 1932Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 14,49fair 16,70-13 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - FC VizelaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,83fair 13,30-26 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Vizela – Felgueiras

    Predicted score matrix

    Felgueiras →
    Vizela →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.1%
    0–110.3%
    0–25.9%
    0–32.1%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–011.6%
    1–113.5%
    1–27.2%
    1–32.6%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–07.4%
    2–18.1%
    2–24.5%
    2–31.6%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–03.0%
    3–13.3%
    3–21.8%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–01.2%
    4+–11.3%
    4+–20.7%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.0-110%
    4. 4.0-010%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,23–1,10
    Both teams to score
    48%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,559%
    @1.52
    Over 2,541%
    @2.32

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Vizela or draw (1X)68%
    • Under 3.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    54%

    Fair odds

    1.86

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Vizela or draw (1X)68%
    • Under 2.5 goals59%
    • Heinz Robert Mörschel Moreno to score25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score48%
    • Over 2.5 goals41%
    • Heinz Robert Mörschel Moreno to score25%
    • Henrique Manuel Neiva de Almeida Martins to be booked26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Felgueiras31% probability@3.61PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
    • 2 · Felgueiras31% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
    • 2 · Felgueiras31% probability@3.20BetssonEV+1%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · VizelaX2 · Felgueiras
    Betsafe2.223.05
    EV+ 1%
    3.20
    Betsson2.223.05
    EV+ 1%
    3.20
    Nordicbet2.223.05
    EV+ 1%
    3.20
    Pinnacle2.302.98
    EV+ 14%
    3.61

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 10:32

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    43 %38 %

    2.26 → 2.30

    X-4 %
    33 %28 %

    3.12 → 2.98

    2+9 %
    31 %26 %

    3.32 → 3.61

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Vizela 1Draw 2Felgueiras 1
    Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Felgueiras 1932 are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Vizela
    Felgueiras
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Vizela (4–2)
    Felgueiras (4–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Vizela
    Jean Pierre Rhyner: 180 passningar, xT 0.76RhynerMiguel Pires: 120 passningar, xT 0.08PiresAndrea Hristov: 108 passningar, xT 0.35HristovGiovani Bamba: 104 passningar, xT 0.05BambaBright Osuoha Godwin: 99 passningar, xT 0.51GodwinAntonio Gomis Alemañ: 94 passningar, xT -2.28AlemañJojo: 69 passningar, xT 0.33JojoÂngelo Pelegrinelli Neto: 51 passningar, xT 0.03NetoLuís Carlos da Rocha Rodrigues: 51 passningar, xT 0.19RodriguesMatías Rafael Lacava González: 49 passningar, xT 0.65GonzálezRodrigo Ramos: 46 passningar, xT 0.16Ramos
    Felgueiras
    Francisco Franca: 111 passningar, xT 0.48FrancaSamuel Oliveira Vivas Castro: 111 passningar, xT 0.18CastroFilipe Cruz: 99 passningar, xT 0.46CruzEduardo Silvino da Cruz: 96 passningar, xT 0.21CruzRolando António Pereira Rocha Almeida: 86 passningar, xT 0.3AlmeidaMateus Pasinato: 85 passningar, xT 0.09PasinatoRodrigo Santos Ribeiro: 76 passningar, xT 0.3RibeiroArmando Roberto Torres Lopes: 72 passningar, xT 0.28LopesMichel Costa: 69 passningar, xT 0.13CostaHenrique Manuel Neiva de Almeida Martins: 52 passningar, xT 0.12MartinsAfonso Freitas: 39 passningar, xT 0.3Freitas
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Vizela
    Jean Pierre Rhyner: 180 passningar, xT 0.76RhynerMiguel Pires: 120 passningar, xT 0.08PiresAndrea Hristov: 108 passningar, xT 0.35HristovGiovani Bamba: 104 passningar, xT 0.05BambaBright Osuoha Godwin: 99 passningar, xT 0.51GodwinAntonio Gomis Alemañ: 94 passningar, xT -2.28AlemañJojo: 69 passningar, xT 0.33JojoÂngelo Pelegrinelli Neto: 51 passningar, xT 0.03NetoLuís Carlos da Rocha Rodrigues: 51 passningar, xT 0.19RodriguesMatías Rafael Lacava González: 49 passningar, xT 0.65GonzálezRodrigo Ramos: 46 passningar, xT 0.16Ramos
    Felgueiras
    Francisco Franca: 111 passningar, xT 0.48FrancaSamuel Oliveira Vivas Castro: 111 passningar, xT 0.18CastroFilipe Cruz: 99 passningar, xT 0.46CruzEduardo Silvino da Cruz: 96 passningar, xT 0.21CruzRolando António Pereira Rocha Almeida: 86 passningar, xT 0.3AlmeidaMateus Pasinato: 85 passningar, xT 0.09PasinatoRodrigo Santos Ribeiro: 76 passningar, xT 0.3RibeiroArmando Roberto Torres Lopes: 72 passningar, xT 0.28LopesMichel Costa: 69 passningar, xT 0.13CostaHenrique Manuel Neiva de Almeida Martins: 52 passningar, xT 0.12MartinsAfonso Freitas: 39 passningar, xT 0.3Freitas
    The goalkeepersAntonio Gomis Alemañ (Vizela)Mateus Pasinato (Felgueiras)
    Saves1310
    Save %87%77%
    xG prevented45%86%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Vizela
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Felgueiras
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Vizela vs Felgueiras according to our model?

    The model gives Vizela a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vizela 39%, draw 30%, Felgueiras 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    VizelaVizela
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    União de LeiriaUnião de Leiria
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.