01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Porto to win63%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Primeira LigaEstádio do Fontelo, Viseu18°11 km/h
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Academico ViseuPossession control0–3
PortoPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Porto (63%)Best value by the model: 1 · Academico Viseu @ 10.06 (+41 %)
Academico Viseu – Porto · Primeira Liga
1 · Academico Viseu 14%X 23%63% Porto · 2
14%
23%
63%
Analysis: Academico Viseu – Porto
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Four consecutive victories are propelling Porto into their clash against Academico Viseu, underscoring a stark contrast in form. As the visitors boast an impressive streak, having found the net in 29 consecutive league matches, their offensive prowess seems set to continue. Meanwhile, Viseu's struggles are evident, with just two points collected and an expected goals tally that mirrors their reality — a modest 0.95 per match. Porto's attacking and defensive metrics further highlight the gulf between the teams, as they average 2.2 expected goals while conceding only 1.2 per game.
Both teams prefer a possession-based approach, but Viseu's control rarely translates into productivity. Their expected goals against (2.0 per match) points to vulnerabilities that Porto is well-equipped to exploit. The model's 63% probability of a Porto victory aligns with their superior form and offensive capabilities. Given these dynamics, the most likely scorelines of 0-2, 1-2, and 1-1 reflect a match-up where Porto's attacking flair should dominate.
With a 59% chance of seeing over 2.5 goals, bettors might lean toward a more goal-laden scenario, especially as both teams have a 54% chance of scoring. However, Viseu's defensive frailties might be more pronounced than their potential to find the back of the net. Despite the slim possibility that Viseu could surprise, the betting market has identified significant value in backing the home team at odds of 9.7 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet — a 36% edge considering their meager 14% win probability.
In conclusion, while a Porto victory seems the most plausible outcome, the value offered on a Viseu upset is notable. The disparity in form suggests a 0-2 result in favor of Porto, which would in fact stay under 2.5 total goals.
Academico ViseuForm DLD
League ranking xG #13xGA #18xT #12xP/match #16Points #12
Key players
- Soufiane MesseguemFxG 0.06 · xT 0.01
- João Guilherme de Sousa CrispimRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.04
- Cihan KahramanRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
PortoForm LWWWW
League ranking xG #2xGA #8xT #2xP/match #8Points #2
Key players
- Gabri VeigaFxG 0.57 · xT 0.25
- Zaidu SanusiLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.13
- William GomesRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.36
Final score
0 – 3
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Academico Viseu 14% · Draw 23% · Porto 63%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Academico ViseuBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 49,24fair 24,91+98 %
MissMatchresultat - PortoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,00fair 4,91+2 %
MissMatch prediction: Academico Viseu – Porto
Predicted score matrix
Porto →
Academico Viseu →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.9%
0–19.5%
0–210.4%
0–37.4%
0–4+6.5%
1
1–04.1%
1–19.6%
1–29.9%
1–37.0%
1–4+6.1%
2
2–02.1%
2–14.4%
2–24.7%
2–33.3%
2–4+2.9%
3
3–00.7%
3–11.4%
3–21.5%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–00.2%
4+–10.4%
4+–20.4%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-210%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.0-110%
- 5.0-37%
Expected goals
0,95–2,13
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,541%
@2.05
Over 2,559%
@1.83EV+6%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Porto to win63%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Samuel Omorodion Aghehowa to score34%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Samuel Omorodion Aghehowa to score34%
- Nikolaos Michelis to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Academico Viseu14% probability@10.06PinnacleEV+41%reference odds
- 1 · Academico Viseu14% probability@9.70BetsafeEV+36%reference odds
- 1 · Academico Viseu14% probability@9.70BetssonEV+36%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Academico Viseu | X | 2 · Porto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 36% 9.70 | EV+ 7% 4.55 | 1.31 |
| Betsson | EV+ 36% 9.70 | EV+ 7% 4.55 | 1.31 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 36% 9.70 | EV+ 7% 4.55 | 1.31 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 41% 10.06 | EV+ 25% 5.31 | 1.33 |
Odds updated 29 Aug, 18:30
Odds movement
1+16 %
13 %8 %
8.64 → 10.06
X+5 %
20 %15 %
5.08 → 5.31
2-1 %
75 %70 %
1.33 → 1.33
Over 2,5+7 %
58 %53 %
1.71 → 1.83
Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- FC Porto come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- FC Porto have scored in 29 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Academico Viseu
Porto
Academico Viseu (4–5)
Porto (6–0)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Academico Viseu
Porto
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Academico Viseu
Porto
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Academico Viseu | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 2 | 9 |
| xPoints | 2.2 | 5.2 |
| xG per match | 0.95 | 2.2 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.34 | 0.54 |
| Playing style | Academico Viseu | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.32 | 0.58 |
| xT per match | 0.64 | 1.7 |
| xTA per match | 0.97 | 0.53 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 14 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 20 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 6 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 305 | 380 |
| Passes against per match | 333 | 329 |
| Switches of play per match | 31 | 20 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Academico Viseu | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 3.6 | 8.3 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 5.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.28 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.59 |
| Other | Academico Viseu | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.84 |
| The goalkeepers | Ewerton Ferreira da Silva (Academico Viseu) | Diogo Costa (Porto) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 11 | 7 |
| Save % | 69% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 47% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Academico Viseu vs Porto according to our model?
The model gives Porto a 63% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Academico Viseu 14%, draw 23%, Porto 63%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.