Arouca vs Maritimo: Prediction & Odds (30 Aug 2026)

Primeira Liga30 August 2026Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca18°11 km/h

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AroucaBalanced & physical

2–1

MaritimoPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Arouca (42%)Best value by the model: 2 · Maritimo @ 3.72 (+9 %)

1 · Arouca 42%X 29%29% Maritimo · 2

42%

29%

Analysis: Arouca – Maritimo

Oscar Nilsson · 29 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

In a tight head-to-head matchup, history takes a backseat to form and expected goals when Arouca hosts Maritimo. With Arouca's balanced physicality meeting Maritimo's possession control, the clash promises to be finely poised. Each side's probability of victory sits at 29% for Maritimo and 42% for the hosts, suggesting a narrow edge for Arouca. The most likely outcomes are 1-1, 1-0, or a 0-1 finish, each reflecting the potential for a close affair.

Maritimo, despite their slight standing edge in points with seven to Arouca's six, also boasts superior underlying metrics. They lead in expected points and goals per game, posting 5.5 and 1.2 respectively compared to Arouca's 3.1 and 0.79. Defensively, Maritimo is solid with an expected goals against of 0.91, significantly better than Arouca's 1.7. These numbers suggest that Maritimo may have the upper hand in controlling play, despite the model's inclination towards Arouca.

The balance is echoed in expected goals, with Arouca at 1.37 and Maritimo at 1.34. The match is likely to hover around low scoring, yet the 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance for both sides finding the net leaves room for unpredictability. The numbers indicate a 1-1 draw as the most probable outcome, aligning with the evenly matched expected goals.

The sharp angle here lies in the potential for goals beyond the usual expectation. The over 3.5 goals market presents value at odds of 3.7 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates this outcome at 29%, providing a notable 6% edge. While not a guarantee, this angle is worth considering for those looking to capitalize on overlooked opportunities in what's otherwise a tightly contested fixture.

Arouca

Form WWWWL

League ranking xG #15xGA #13xT #11xP/match #11Points #5

Key players

Ivan BarberoFxG 0.42 · xT -0.01
Näis DjouahraLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.23
Taichi FukuiCAMxG 0.04 · xT 0.00

Maritimo

Form WWD

League ranking xG #9xGA #7xT #10xP/match #7Points #3

Key players

Adrián Butzke BenavidesLWxG 0.35 · xT 0.13
Mohamed Bouzaidi DiouriRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
Paulo Henrique Rodrigues CabralLWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.13

Final score

2 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Arouca 42% · Draw 29% · Maritimo 29%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - MarítimoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 12,55fair 10,56+19 %

Miss

Matchresultat - AroucaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,27fair 10,20-19 %

Miss

Match prediction: Arouca – Maritimo

Predicted score matrix

Maritimo →

Arouca →

0–07.0%

0–18.6%

0–26.0%

0–32.7%

0–4+1.2%

1–08.7%

1–112.6%

1–28.2%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.7%

2–06.2%

2–18.3%

2–25.6%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–02.8%

3–13.8%

3–22.6%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.8%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-09%
3.0-19%
4.2-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,37–1,34

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@1.78

Over 2,551%

@2.10EV+3%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Arouca or draw (1X)64%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Arouca or draw (1X)64%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Dylan Alexander Nandín Berrutti to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Dylan Alexander Nandín Berrutti to score21%
Raphael Gregório Guzzo to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Maritimo29% probability@3.72PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
Over 2.551% probability@2.10PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
Over 3.529% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Arouca	X	2 · Maritimo
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 5% 2.52	3.30	2.94
Betsafe	2.15	3.15	3.35
Betsson	2.15	3.15	3.35
Nordicbet	2.15	3.15	3.35
Pinnacle	2.11	3.39	EV+ 9% 3.72

Odds updated 29 Aug, 14:25

Odds movement

1-2 %

46 %41 %

2.15 → 2.11

X+3 %

31 %26 %

3.29 → 3.39

2+6 %

30 %25 %

3.52 → 3.72

Over 2,5-2 %

47 %42 %

2.15 → 2.10

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Arouca

Maritimo

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Arouca (5–2)

Maritimo (5–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Arouca

Maritimo

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Arouca

Maritimo

The teams in numbers

Performance	Arouca	Maritimo
Points	6	7
xPoints	3.1	5.5
xG per match	0.79	1.2
xGA per match	1.7	0.91
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.4	0.21

Playing style	Arouca	Maritimo
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.31
Field tilt	0.37	0.4
xT per match	0.65	0.82
xTA per match	1.5	0.99
Won balls, offensive half	17	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.19
Entries into the box per match	4	10
Entries into the box against	16	11
Pass completion %	0.8	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.66
Passes per match	377	260
Passes against per match	430	410
Switches of play per match	28.8	19.9
Long balls per match	33	24

Set pieces	Arouca	Maritimo
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	3	2.3
Corners against per match	6.8	5.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.57
First touch, defensive corners %	0.85	0.69

Other	Arouca	Maritimo
Throw-in control	0.77	0.72

The goalkeepers	Ignacio de Arruabarrena Fernández (Arouca)	Alfonso Pastor Vacas (Maritimo)
Saves	13	12
Save %	87%	80%
xG prevented	78%	56%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Arouca

Fixtures, form & tips

Maritimo

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Arouca vs Maritimo according to our model?

The model gives Arouca a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Arouca 42%, draw 29%, Maritimo 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.