01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Arouca or draw (1X)68%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
Primeira LigaEstádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca26°0,3 mm12 km/h
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AroucaCounter-attacks & crosses4–0
MoreirenseLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Arouca (39%)Best value by the model: 2 · Moreirense @ 4.25 (+24 %)
Arouca – Moreirense · Primeira Liga
1 · Arouca 39%X 32%29% Moreirense · 2
39%
32%
29%
Analysis: Arouca – Moreirense
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Three wins on the bounce have Arouca surfing a wave of confidence as they host Moreirense, yet the undercurrents of this matchup suggest a more complex narrative. The bookmakers' model gives Arouca a 39% chance of victory, but the devil's in the detail: Moreirense's defensive solidity, allowing an xGA of just 1.0 per match, might just clip Arouca's attacking wings.
Arouca's penchant for counter-attacks and crosses will clash with Moreirense's low defensive block and direct play, a tactical dance that could stifle flow and favor a low-scoring game. Given the expected goals—1.30 for Arouca and 1.14 for Moreirense—the model slightly leans toward a home win. However, the 44% probability for over 2.5 goals makes clear that a goal-fest isn't on the cards.
While Arouca has met Moreirense four times since 2023, winning two and losing two, the small sample size tempers the weight of these encounters. In contrast, Arouca's recent form, collecting three points last round against just one for Moreirense, gives them a smidge of momentum. Yet, Moreirense's disciplined defense and the model's xPoints edge suggest a draw—most likely at 1-1—or a narrow away victory could unfold.
For the value seekers, the betting angles are compelling. Pinnacle's odds of 3.73 for a Moreirense victory carry a 9% edge, while also offering 3.25 for a draw with a 5% edge. Betsafe offers a marginally smaller edge on Moreirense at 3.55. While by no means a guarantee, these opportunities highlight where the smart money might land in a game that, on paper, is tightly contested.
AroucaForm LDWWW
League ranking xG #17xGA #18xT #18xP/match #18Points #5
Key players
- Taichi FukuiCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.09
- Pedro SantosCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
- Ivan BarberoFxG 0.37 · xT 0.03
MoreirenseForm LWLDD
League ranking xG #18xGA #9xT #17xP/match #14Points #12
Key players
- Gilberto BatistaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
- Francisco Miguel Teixeira DominguesLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
- Alexandre Duville-ParsemainFxG 0.11 · xT -0.01
Final score
4 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Arouca 39% · Draw 32% · Moreirense 29%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - MoreirenseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 16,45fair 15,26+8 %
MissMatchresultat - AroucaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,30fair 11,66-37 %
MissMatch prediction: Arouca – Moreirense
Predicted score matrix
Moreirense →
Arouca →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.1%
0–19.5%
0–25.6%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–011.0%
1–113.3%
1–27.3%
1–32.8%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–07.4%
2–18.4%
2–24.8%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.2%
3–13.7%
3–22.1%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–11.6%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-110%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,30–1,14
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
@1.71
Over 2,544%
@2.19
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Arouca or draw (1X)68%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- Iván Martínez Gonzálvez to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Iván Martínez Gonzálvez to score28%
- Espen van Ee to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Moreirense29% probability@4.25BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
- 2 · Moreirense29% probability@4.25BetssonEV+24%reference odds
- 2 · Moreirense29% probability@4.25NordicbetEV+24%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Arouca | X | 2 · Moreirense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.85 | EV+ 7% 3.30 | EV+ 24% 4.25 |
| Betsson | 1.85 | EV+ 7% 3.30 | EV+ 24% 4.25 |
| Nordicbet | 1.85 | EV+ 7% 3.30 | EV+ 24% 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.13 | EV+ 5% 3.25 | EV+ 9% 3.73 |
Odds updated 16 Aug, 16:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Arouca win since 10 August — the odds have shortened from 2.28 to 2.13 (−7%).
1-7 %
46 %41 %
2.28 → 2.13
X+2 %
32 %27 %
3.19 → 3.25
2+12 %
30 %25 %
3.32 → 3.73
Over 2,50 %
46 %41 %
2.18 → 2.19
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesArouca 2Draw 0Moreirense 2
Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.
Key facts
- Arouca come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Arouca
Moreirense
Arouca (1–0)
Moreirense (2–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Arouca
Moreirense
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Arouca
Moreirense
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Arouca | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 1 |
| xPoints | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| xG per match | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| xGA per match | 2.5 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.59 | 0.31 |
| Playing style | Arouca | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| Field tilt | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| xT per match | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| xTA per match | 1.9 | 0.35 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 16 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.41 |
| Entries into the box per match | 4 | 4 |
| Entries into the box against | 21 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 317 | 260 |
| Passes against per match | 460 | 511 |
| Switches of play per match | 30.7 | 19.4 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Arouca | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 2 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 1.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.25 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 1 | 1 |
| Other | Arouca | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| The goalkeepers | Jose Fontan (Arouca) | Andre Ferreira (Moreirense) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 4 | 2 |
| Save % | 100% | 50% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 35% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Arouca vs Moreirense according to our model?
The model gives Arouca a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Arouca 39%, draw 32%, Moreirense 29%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.