Primeira LigaEstádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca24°11 km/h

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    AroucaAroucaBalanced & physical
    vs
    Santa ClaraSanta ClaraPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Arouca (40%)

    Arouca – Santa Clara · Primeira Liga

    1 · Arouca 40%X 32%28% Santa Clara · 2

    Analysis: Arouca – Santa Clara

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Arouca's balanced and physical style meets Santa Clara's possession control, setting the stage for a tactical battle where space and precision will be at a premium. The model gives the hosts a 40% chance of victory and highlights their potential to edge this contest. Despite this, the most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 14%, with a 1-0 win for the home side also in the mix at 12%.

    Santa Clara remain unbeaten in their last five league matches, showcasing a robust defense and efficient attack — reflected in their superior xG of 1.7 per match compared to Arouca's modest 0.95. The visitors have also been stingy at the back, conceding an xGA of just 0.7 per match, a clear edge over Arouca's more porous 1.4. While the head-to-head sample since 2023 is small, split evenly with one win each and two draws, Santa Clara's form and underlying numbers suggest they may hold a slight upper hand.

    That said, the betting landscape reveals value on the home side. The odds of 2.65 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet reflect a 7% edge on Arouca to win, according to the model's 40% likelihood. This makes a punt on the hosts potentially lucrative, despite Santa Clara's recent form.

    Goals seem likely to be in short supply, with the over 2.5 goals market priced at just 41% and both teams to score at 47%. A tight 1-1 or a narrow Arouca victory fits this narrative. But with the edge in betting value lying firmly with Arouca at home, it's a calculated risk worth considering, especially for those keen to capitalize on the odds discrepancy.

    AroucaArouca
    Form WWLWD
    League ranking xG #11xGA #10xT #8xP/match #10Points #5
    Key players
    • Ivan BarberoFxG 0.47 · xT -0.02
    • Taichi FukuiCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.01
    • Näis DjouahraLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.19
    Santa ClaraSanta Clara
    Form DWWDW
    League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #11xP/match #3Points #3
    Key players
    • Gonçalo Mendes PaciênciaFxG 0.94 · xT 0.04
    • Brenner Lucas Gonçalves SantosLWBxG 0.65 · xT 0.07
    • Pedro FerreiraCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.03

    Match prediction: Arouca – Santa Clara

    Predicted score matrix

    Santa Clara →
    Arouca →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.4%
    0–110.1%
    0–25.5%
    0–31.9%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–012.2%
    1–113.5%
    1–26.9%
    1–32.4%
    1–4+0.8%
    2
    2–07.9%
    2–18.3%
    2–24.3%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–03.3%
    3–13.5%
    3–21.8%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–01.4%
    4+–11.4%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.0-010%
    4. 4.0-110%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,26–1,05
    Both teams to score
    47%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,559%
    @1.64
    Over 2,541%
    @2.35

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Arouca or draw (1X)70%
    • Under 3.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.80

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Arouca or draw (1X)70%
    • Under 2.5 goals59%
    • Dylan Alexander Nandín Berrutti to score19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score47%
    • Over 2.5 goals41%
    • Gonçalo Mendes Paciência to score21%
    • Pedro Miguel Dinis Ferreira to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Arouca40% probability@2.78Betfair ExchangeEV+12%reference odds
    • 1 · Arouca40% probability@2.75PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
    • 1 · Arouca40% probability@2.52BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · AroucaX2 · Santa Clara
    Betfair Exchange
    EV+ 12%
    2.78
    EV+ 1%
    3.20    		2.72
    Betsafe
    EV+ 2%
    2.52    		3.102.80
    Betsson
    EV+ 2%
    2.52    		3.102.80
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 2%
    2.52    		3.102.80
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 11%
    2.75    		2.902.90

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 17:39

    Odds movement

    1-4 %
    37 %32 %

    2.86 → 2.75

    X-6 %
    34 %29 %

    3.10 → 2.90

    2+10 %
    37 %32 %

    2.63 → 2.90

    Over 2,5+2 %
    43 %38 %

    2.31 → 2.35

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Arouca 1Draw 2Santa Clara 1
    Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 1,8)

    Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Santa Clara are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Arouca
    Santa Clara
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Arouca (7–3)
    Santa Clara (9–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Arouca
    Jose Fontan: 356 passningar, xT 0.44FontanJavier Sánchez de Felipe: 234 passningar, xT 0.47FelipeTaichi Fukui: 226 passningar, xT 0.08FukuiIgnacio de Arruabarrena Fernández: 174 passningar, xT 0.07FernándezOrest Lebedenko: 172 passningar, xT 0.4LebedenkoTiago Esgaio: 150 passningar, xT 0.55EsgaioNäis Djouahra: 138 passningar, xT 0.61DjouahraEspen van Ee: 127 passningar, xT 0.03EePedro Santos: 72 passningar, xT 0.04SantosBoris Popović: 59 passningar, xT 0.04PopovićAlfonso Trezza: 48 passningar, xT 0.45Trezza
    Santa Clara
    Pedro Pacheco: 235 passningar, xT 0.34PachecoPedro Ferreira: 166 passningar, xT 0.11FerreiraEmanuel Moreira Fernandes: 154 passningar, xT 0.07FernandesDiogo dos Santos Cabral: 146 passningar, xT 0.15CabralGuilherme Kennedy Romão: 143 passningar, xT 0.48RomãoLucas Franca: 113 passningar, xT -0.02FrancaJosé Luís Rocha Tavares: 99 passningar, xT 0.18TavaresLucas Soares: 62 passningar, xT 0.17SoaresVinícius Lopes da Silva: 60 passningar, xT 0.62SilvaDani Borges: 60 passningar, xT -0.08BorgesTiago Miguel Hora Ribeiro: 58 passningar, xT 0.09Ribeiro
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Arouca
    Jose Fontan: 356 passningar, xT 0.44FontanJavier Sánchez de Felipe: 234 passningar, xT 0.47FelipeTaichi Fukui: 226 passningar, xT 0.08FukuiIgnacio de Arruabarrena Fernández: 174 passningar, xT 0.07FernándezOrest Lebedenko: 172 passningar, xT 0.4LebedenkoTiago Esgaio: 150 passningar, xT 0.55EsgaioNäis Djouahra: 138 passningar, xT 0.61DjouahraEspen van Ee: 127 passningar, xT 0.03EePedro Santos: 72 passningar, xT 0.04SantosBoris Popović: 59 passningar, xT 0.04PopovićAlfonso Trezza: 48 passningar, xT 0.45Trezza
    Santa Clara
    Pedro Pacheco: 235 passningar, xT 0.34PachecoPedro Ferreira: 166 passningar, xT 0.11FerreiraEmanuel Moreira Fernandes: 154 passningar, xT 0.07FernandesDiogo dos Santos Cabral: 146 passningar, xT 0.15CabralGuilherme Kennedy Romão: 143 passningar, xT 0.48RomãoLucas Franca: 113 passningar, xT -0.02FrancaJosé Luís Rocha Tavares: 99 passningar, xT 0.18TavaresLucas Soares: 62 passningar, xT 0.17SoaresVinícius Lopes da Silva: 60 passningar, xT 0.62SilvaDani Borges: 60 passningar, xT -0.08BorgesTiago Miguel Hora Ribeiro: 58 passningar, xT 0.09Ribeiro

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceAroucaSanta Clara
    Points1011
    xPoints6.210.5
    xG per match0.951.7
    xGA per match1.40.7
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.210.45
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.30.09
    Playing styleAroucaSanta Clara
    Build-up efficiency0.270.3
    Field tilt0.440.5
    xT per match0.850.77
    xTA per match1.20.69
    Won balls, offensive half1925
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.310.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.23
    Entries into the box per match711
    Entries into the box against1510
    Pass completion %0.80.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.760.68
    Passes per match398306
    Passes against per match409362
    Switches of play per match27.228.4
    Long balls per match3030
    Set piecesAroucaSanta Clara
    xG from free kicks00.05
    Corners per match2.63.8
    Corners against per match6.25.8
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against0.020.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.310.58
    First touch, defensive corners %0.840.55
    OtherAroucaSanta Clara
    Throw-in control0.810.65
    The goalkeepersIgnacio de Arruabarrena Fernández (Arouca)Lucas Franca (Santa Clara)
    Saves249
    Save %89%75%
    xG prevented84%31%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Arouca
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Santa Clara
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Arouca vs Santa Clara according to our model?

    The model gives Arouca a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Arouca 40%, draw 32%, Santa Clara 28%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.