Primeira LigaEstádio da Luz, Lissabon27°7 km/h

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    BenficaBenficaPossession & high press
    vs
    Gil VicenteGil VicentePossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Benfica (80%)Best value by the model: 2 · Gil Vicente @ 22.00 (+61 %)

    Benfica – Gil Vicente · Primeira Liga

    1 · Benfica 80%X 13%7% Gil Vicente · 2

    Analysis: Benfica – Gil Vicente

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    Benfica have a commanding 80% probability of winning against Gil Vicente, according to the model. The Portuguese giants show no signs of slowing, boasting a remarkable streak of scoring in 18 consecutive league matches. With three straight wins and a 72% historical home win rate, the hosts are primed to showcase their dominance once more. Gil Vicente's 7% chance of victory speaks volumes about the uphill battle they face, despite their 1.4 xG per match.

    The expected goals further underscore the disparity. Benfica's 2.82 xG dwarfs the visitors' 0.80, suggesting a match heavily tilted in favor of the home side. While both teams employ a possession-based style, it's Benfica's high press that often turns control into lethal opportunities, evidenced by their consistent scoring record. The head-to-head record, although limited to four matches, favors the hosts with four straight victories over Gil Vicente.

    For bettors, the intriguing angle lies in the value offered on an unlikely Gil Vicente win. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all present odds of 16.0 for an away victory, against a model-assessed probability of 7%. This represents a 17% edge. While the most probable scoreline leans towards a 2-0 or 3-0 win for Benfica, value seekers might be tempted by the long odds on the visitors.

    BenficaBenfica
    Form WDWWW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #4
    Key players
    • Vangelis PavlidisFxG 0.75 · xT 0.20
    • Gianluca PrestianniLWxG 0.45 · xT 0.46
    • Clément Nicolas Laurent LengletCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.17
    Gil VicenteGil Vicente
    Form LWWDL
    League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #9xP/match #4Points #7
    Key players
    • Jonathan BuatuCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
    • Marvin ElimbiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.12
    • Héctor José Hernández MarreroFxG 1.00 · xT -0.03

    Match prediction: Benfica – Gil Vicente

    Predicted score matrix

    Gil Vicente →
    Benfica →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–02.8%
    0–12.0%
    0–20.9%
    0–30.2%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–07.3%
    1–16.2%
    1–22.4%
    1–30.7%
    1–4+0.2%
    2
    2–010.6%
    2–18.5%
    2–23.4%
    2–30.9%
    2–4+0.2%
    3
    3–010.0%
    3–18.0%
    3–23.2%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–014.0%
    4+–111.3%
    4+–24.5%
    4+–31.2%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-011%
    2. 2.3-010%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.3-18%
    5. 5.1-07%
    Expected goals
    2,82–0,80
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,6
    Under 2,530%
    @2.66
    Over 2,570%
    @1.53EV+7%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Benfica to win80%
    • Over 1.5 goals88%

    Combined probability

    71%

    Fair odds

    1.40

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Benfica to win80%
    • Over 2.5 goals70%
    • Vangelis Pavlidis to score36%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals70%
    • Vangelis Pavlidis to score36%
    • Facundo Agustín Cáseres to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Gil Vicente7% probability@22.00BetsafeEV+61%reference odds
    • 2 · Gil Vicente7% probability@22.00BetssonEV+61%reference odds
    • 2 · Gil Vicente7% probability@22.00NordicbetEV+61%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · BenficaX2 · Gil Vicente
    Betfair Exchange1.151.151.16
    Betsafe1.156.10
    EV+ 61%
    22.00
    Betsson1.156.10
    EV+ 61%
    22.00
    Nordicbet1.156.10
    EV+ 61%
    22.00
    Pinnacle1.15
    EV+ 0%
    7.76
    EV+ 20%
    16.40

    Odds updated 10 Sept, 05:09

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Benfica 4Draw 0Gil Vicente 0
    Goals: 12–3 (⌀ 3,8)

    Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Benfica come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    • Benfica have scored in 18 consecutive league matches.
    • Benfica win 72% of their home matches all-time (36 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Benfica
    Gil Vicente
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Benfica (14–3)
    Gil Vicente (3–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Benfica
    Tomas Araujo: 294 passningar, xT 0.56AraujoClément Nicolas Laurent Lenglet: 285 passningar, xT 0.67LengletSamuel Dahl: 238 passningar, xT 0.64DahlAlexander Bah: 183 passningar, xT 0.65BahEnzo Barrenechea: 150 passningar, xT 0.28BarrenecheaGianluca Prestianni: 141 passningar, xT 1.32PrestianniHeorhii Sudakov: 112 passningar, xT 0.19SudakovLeandro Barreiro: 108 passningar, xT 0.06BarreiroSamuel Soares: 93 passningar, xT 0.12SoaresJoão Maria Lobo Alves Palhares Costa Palhinha Gonçalves: 86 passningar, xT 0.07GonçalvesRafael Alexandre Fernandes Ferreira da Silva: 73 passningar, xT 0.08Silva
    Gil Vicente
    Jonathan Buatu: 234 passningar, xT 0.35BuatuMarvin Elimbi: 233 passningar, xT 0.45ElimbiRicardo de Sousa Esgaio: 199 passningar, xT 0.56EsgaioDiogo Prioste: 163 passningar, xT 0.53PriosteLucas Alexandre Galdino de Azevedo: 121 passningar, xT 0.08AzevedoFacundo Caseres: 114 passningar, xT 0.23CaseresAndreas Sejr Lausen: 93 passningar, xT -0.02LausenJosé Carlos Natário Ferreira: 86 passningar, xT 0.14FerreiraWeverson Moreira da Costa: 81 passningar, xT 0.16CostaJoelson Fernandes: 65 passningar, xT 0.35FernandesDavid Miguel Madeira Moreira: 63 passningar, xT 0.02Moreira
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Benfica
    Tomas Araujo: 294 passningar, xT 0.56AraujoClément Nicolas Laurent Lenglet: 285 passningar, xT 0.67LengletSamuel Dahl: 238 passningar, xT 0.64DahlAlexander Bah: 183 passningar, xT 0.65BahEnzo Barrenechea: 150 passningar, xT 0.28BarrenecheaGianluca Prestianni: 141 passningar, xT 1.32PrestianniHeorhii Sudakov: 112 passningar, xT 0.19SudakovLeandro Barreiro: 108 passningar, xT 0.06BarreiroSamuel Soares: 93 passningar, xT 0.12SoaresJoão Maria Lobo Alves Palhares Costa Palhinha Gonçalves: 86 passningar, xT 0.07GonçalvesRafael Alexandre Fernandes Ferreira da Silva: 73 passningar, xT 0.08Silva
    Gil Vicente
    Jonathan Buatu: 234 passningar, xT 0.35BuatuMarvin Elimbi: 233 passningar, xT 0.45ElimbiRicardo de Sousa Esgaio: 199 passningar, xT 0.56EsgaioDiogo Prioste: 163 passningar, xT 0.53PriosteLucas Alexandre Galdino de Azevedo: 121 passningar, xT 0.08AzevedoFacundo Caseres: 114 passningar, xT 0.23CaseresAndreas Sejr Lausen: 93 passningar, xT -0.02LausenJosé Carlos Natário Ferreira: 86 passningar, xT 0.14FerreiraWeverson Moreira da Costa: 81 passningar, xT 0.16CostaJoelson Fernandes: 65 passningar, xT 0.35FernandesDavid Miguel Madeira Moreira: 63 passningar, xT 0.02Moreira

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBenficaGil Vicente
    Points107
    xPoints9.68.1
    xG per match2.61.4
    xGA per match0.30.43
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.650.34
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.010.1
    Playing styleBenficaGil Vicente
    Build-up efficiency0.310.27
    Field tilt0.840.64
    xT per match1.80.81
    xTA per match0.320.55
    Won balls, offensive half3321
    Pressing intensity0.220.23
    Pressing efficiency0.270.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.24
    Entries into the box per match2711
    Entries into the box against69
    Pass completion %0.830.81
    Pass completion % under pressure0.760.76
    Passes per match507439
    Passes against per match263332
    Switches of play per match34.121.6
    Long balls per match3527
    Set piecesBenficaGil Vicente
    xG from free kicks0.070.03
    Corners per match6.84.5
    Corners against per match1.53.3
    xG per corner0.050.01
    xGA per corner against0.040
    First touch, offensive corners %0.410.44
    First touch, defensive corners %0.330.77
    OtherBenficaGil Vicente
    Throw-in control0.760.76
    The goalkeepersSamuel Soares (Benfica)Lucas Alexandre Galdino de Azevedo (Gil Vicente)
    Saves45
    Save %57%83%
    xG prevented36%83%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Benfica vs Gil Vicente according to our model?

    The model gives Benfica a 80% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Benfica 80%, draw 13%, Gil Vicente 7%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 70% and under at 30%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.