Primeira LigaEstádio da Luz, Lissabon21°23 km/h

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    BenficaBenficaPossession & high press
    2–1
    Estoril PraiaEstoril PraiaPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Benfica (80%)Best value by the model: 2 · Estoril Praia @ 22.00 (+49 %)

    Benfica – Estoril Praia · Primeira Liga

    1 · Benfica 80%X 13%7% Estoril Praia · 2

    Analysis: Benfica – Estoril Praia

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Benfica's remarkable unbeaten streak of 51 league matches paints a clear picture of their dominance. Their attacking prowess is evident as they've found the back of the net in 16 consecutive games. The hosts boast an impressive 71% win rate in their home outings, making the Estádio da Luz a daunting place for any visitor. The numbers are stark and favor the home side heavily.

    The visitors, Estoril Praia, face a formidable task. They have only managed one point this season and their expected goals tally of 0.94 per match suggests they might struggle to penetrate a Benfica defense that concedes a mere 0.41 xGA per match. Historically, in the four head-to-head encounters since 2023, Benfica has come out on top each time, though the sample is small and less reliable than current form metrics.

    Benfica's style, characterized by possession dominance and a high press, is likely to suffocate any attempts by Estoril to build from the back, mirroring the visitors' own tactical approach but with arguably superior personnel. The match is expected to feature plenty of attacking action, with an over 2.5 goals probability set at 71%. Yet, Benfica's defensive solidity suggests that any chances of both teams scoring remain just slightly above a coin toss (56%).

    The model's most likely outcomes, a 2-0 or 3-0 Benfica win, align with the expectations set by the 80% win probability for the hosts. However, for those inclined towards high-risk, high-reward scenarios, the 16.0 odds on an Estoril Praia upset with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a tantalizing edge of 8%. While highly unlikely, chasing such odds could tempt the daring. Nevertheless, the smart money remains on a controlled Benfica victory, keeping faith in reliable, albeit less thrilling, returns.

    BenficaBenfica
    Form DDWDW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #1Points #7
    Key players
    • Vangelis PavlidisFxG 1.12 · xT 0.31
    • Gianluca PrestianniLWxG 0.56 · xT 0.53
    • Alexander BahRWBxG 0.24 · xT 0.27
    Estoril PraiaEstoril Praia
    Form DLDLL
    League ranking xG #14xGA #11xT #4xP/match #10Points #17
    Key players
    • Yanis Redha BegraouiFxG 0.27 · xT 0.12
    • Joao CarvalhoLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.12
    • Andre LacximicantLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.22
    Final score
    2 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Benfica 80% · Draw 13% · Estoril Praia 7%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - EstorilBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 64,25fair 34,13+88 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - BenficaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 2,99fair 3,44-13 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Benfica – Estoril Praia

    Predicted score matrix

    Estoril Praia →
    Benfica →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–02.8%
    0–12.1%
    0–21.1%
    0–30.3%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–06.9%
    1–16.6%
    1–22.9%
    1–30.9%
    1–4+0.2%
    2
    2–09.8%
    2–18.8%
    2–24.0%
    2–31.2%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–09.0%
    3–18.1%
    3–23.7%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–012.1%
    4+–110.9%
    4+–24.9%
    4+–31.5%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-010%
    2. 2.3-09%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.3-18%
    5. 5.1-07%
    Expected goals
    2,75–0,90
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,7
    Under 2,529%
    @3.55EV+4%
    Over 2,571%
    @1.37

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Benfica to win80%
    • Over 1.5 goals88%

    Combined probability

    69%

    Fair odds

    1.45

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Benfica to win80%
    • Over 2.5 goals71%
    • Vangelis Pavlidis to score41%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals71%
    • Vangelis Pavlidis to score41%
    • Jordan William Holsgrove to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Estoril Praia7% probability@22.00BetsafeEV+49%reference odds
    • 2 · Estoril Praia7% probability@22.00BetssonEV+49%reference odds
    • 2 · Estoril Praia7% probability@22.00NordicbetEV+49%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · BenficaX2 · Estoril Praia
    Bet3651.17
    EV+ 5%
    8.00    		13.00
    Betfair Exchange1.18
    EV+ 18%
    9.00
    EV+ 42%
    21.00
    Betsafe1.146.60
    EV+ 49%
    22.00
    Betsson1.146.60
    EV+ 49%
    22.00
    Nordicbet1.146.60
    EV+ 49%
    22.00
    Pinnacle1.13
    EV+ 24%
    9.41
    EV+ 38%
    20.37

    Odds updated 31 Aug, 11:35

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards the draw since 25 August — the odds have shortened from 10.37 to 9.41 (−9%).

    1+2 %
    87 %82 %

    1.10 → 1.13

    X-9 %
    13 %8 %

    10.37 → 9.41

    2+4 %
    8 %3 %

    19.56 → 20.37

    Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Benfica 4Draw 0Estoril Praia 0
    Goals: 11–3 (⌀ 3,5)

    Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Benfica are unbeaten in their last 51 league matches.
    • Benfica have scored in 16 consecutive league matches.
    • Benfica win 71% of their home matches all-time (35 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Benfica
    Estoril Praia
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Benfica (9–2)
    Estoril Praia (1–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Benfica
    Clément Nicolas Laurent Lenglet: 137 passningar, xT 0.46LengletAlexander Bah: 116 passningar, xT 0.39BahTomas Araujo: 114 passningar, xT 0.22AraujoSamuel Dahl: 113 passningar, xT 0.21DahlEnzo Barrenechea: 112 passningar, xT 0.14BarrenecheaGianluca Prestianni: 68 passningar, xT 0.75PrestianniLeandro Barreiro: 60 passningar, xT 0.07BarreiroHeorhii Sudakov: 53 passningar, xT -0.05SudakovSamuel Soares: 48 passningar, xT 0.05SoaresRafael Alexandre Fernandes Ferreira da Silva: 42 passningar, xT 0.08SilvaAndreas Schjelderup: 37 passningar, xT 0.23Schjelderup
    Estoril Praia
    Ismael Sierra Arnal: 185 passningar, xT 0.22ArnalFrancisco Reis Ferreira: 133 passningar, xT 0.25FerreiraFernando Medrano Gastañaga: 98 passningar, xT 0.17GastañagaJoao Carvalho: 72 passningar, xT 0.09CarvalhoRafik Guitane: 71 passningar, xT 0.44GuitaneJoel Robles: 68 passningar, xT 0.06RoblesAntef Tsoungui: 64 passningar, xT 0.02TsounguiRicard Sanchez: 58 passningar, xT 0.25SanchezTiago Brito: 40 passningar, xT 0.01BritoXeka: 39 passningar, xT 0.07XekaAndre Lacximicant: 36 passningar, xT 0.39Lacximicant
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Benfica
    Clément Nicolas Laurent Lenglet: 137 passningar, xT 0.46LengletAlexander Bah: 116 passningar, xT 0.39BahTomas Araujo: 114 passningar, xT 0.22AraujoSamuel Dahl: 113 passningar, xT 0.21DahlEnzo Barrenechea: 112 passningar, xT 0.14BarrenecheaGianluca Prestianni: 68 passningar, xT 0.75PrestianniLeandro Barreiro: 60 passningar, xT 0.07BarreiroHeorhii Sudakov: 53 passningar, xT -0.05SudakovSamuel Soares: 48 passningar, xT 0.05SoaresRafael Alexandre Fernandes Ferreira da Silva: 42 passningar, xT 0.08SilvaAndreas Schjelderup: 37 passningar, xT 0.23Schjelderup
    Estoril Praia
    Ismael Sierra Arnal: 185 passningar, xT 0.22ArnalFrancisco Reis Ferreira: 133 passningar, xT 0.25FerreiraFernando Medrano Gastañaga: 98 passningar, xT 0.17GastañagaJoao Carvalho: 72 passningar, xT 0.09CarvalhoRafik Guitane: 71 passningar, xT 0.44GuitaneJoel Robles: 68 passningar, xT 0.06RoblesAntef Tsoungui: 64 passningar, xT 0.02TsounguiRicard Sanchez: 58 passningar, xT 0.25SanchezTiago Brito: 40 passningar, xT 0.01BritoXeka: 39 passningar, xT 0.07XekaAndre Lacximicant: 36 passningar, xT 0.39Lacximicant

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBenficaEstoril Praia
    Points41
    xPoints5.23.3
    xG per match3.20.94
    xGA per match0.411.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.790.16
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.010.03
    Playing styleBenficaEstoril Praia
    Build-up efficiency0.310.29
    Field tilt0.870.56
    xT per match21.1
    xTA per match0.420.79
    Won balls, offensive half3826
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.270.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.24
    Entries into the box per match3112
    Entries into the box against79
    Pass completion %0.840.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.780.71
    Passes per match511331
    Passes against per match267361
    Switches of play per match29.623.6
    Long balls per match3327
    Set piecesBenficaEstoril Praia
    xG from free kicks00.01
    Corners per match6.55.8
    Corners against per match1.55.5
    xG per corner0.040.02
    xGA per corner against0.070.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.380.29
    First touch, defensive corners %0.330.62
    OtherBenficaEstoril Praia
    Throw-in control0.770.63
    The goalkeepersSamuel Soares (Benfica)Antef Tsoungui (Estoril Praia)
    Saves23
    Save %50%100%
    xG prevented39%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Benfica
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Estoril Praia
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Benfica vs Estoril Praia according to our model?

    The model gives Benfica a 80% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Benfica 80%, draw 13%, Estoril Praia 7%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 71% and under at 29%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Estrela da AmadoraEstrela da Amadora
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.