Casa Pia vs Porto: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Primeira Liga13 September 2026Estádio Pina Manique, Lissabon25°8 km/h

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Casa PiaLow block & direct

PortoPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Porto (70%)Best value by the model: 1 · Casa Pia @ 12.50 (+32 %)

1 · Casa Pia 11%X 19%70% Porto · 2

19%

70%

Analysis: Casa Pia – Porto

Anna Karlsson · 8 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Casa Pia's slim 11% chance of victory underscores their uphill battle against Porto, who dominate with a 70% likelihood of taking all three points. The visitors are riding a wave of momentum, boasting six consecutive wins and a remarkable streak of scoring in 31 straight league matches. Porto's playing style, focused on possession control, contrasts sharply with the hosts' leaky-defence, direct approach, aligning with an expected xG of 2.13 for Porto compared to 0.77 for Casa Pia.

Despite the small sample size of four head-to-head encounters since 2023, Porto's 3-1 record against the hosts complements their superior form this season. With the most likely scorelines being 0-2 and 0-1, the odds favor a low-scoring affair dominated by the visitors. The expectation of over 2.5 goals sits at 55%, yet both teams to score is less probable at 48%, hinting at a potential clean sheet for Porto.

While the betting model indicates a 21% value edge with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet on a Casa Pia win at odds of 11.5, the prudent play remains backing Porto. The numbers converge on a 0-2 finish, leaning slightly over 2.5 goals, with the visitors poised to extend their winning streak.

Casa Pia

Form LLLLD

League ranking xG #18xGA #15xT #7xP/match #18Points #18

Key players

João Pedro Goulart SilvaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
David SousaCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.05
Diogo Filipe Costa RochaFxG 0.12 · xT 0.26

Porto

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #7xT #2xP/match #6Points #1

Key players

William GomesRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.29
André Miguel Valente da SilvaFxG 0.52 · xT -0.13
Gabri VeigaCAMxG 0.38 · xT 0.21

Match prediction: Casa Pia – Porto

Predicted score matrix

Porto →

Casa Pia →

0–05.8%

0–111.5%

0–212.5%

0–38.9%

0–4+7.8%

1–04.0%

1–19.3%

1–29.6%

1–36.8%

1–4+6.0%

2–01.6%

2–13.5%

2–23.7%

2–32.6%

2–4+2.3%

3–00.4%

3–10.9%

3–20.9%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.6%

4+–00.1%

4+–10.2%

4+–20.2%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-212%
2.0-111%
3.1-210%
4.1-19%
5.0-39%

Expected goals

0,77–2,13

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

@2.08

Over 2,555%

@1.75

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Porto to win70%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Porto to win70%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Gabriel Veiga Novas to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Gabriel Veiga Novas to score28%
Silvi Clua Oya to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Casa Pia11% probability@12.50BetsafeEV+32%reference odds
1 · Casa Pia11% probability@12.50BetssonEV+32%reference odds
1 · Casa Pia11% probability@12.50NordicbetEV+32%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Casa Pia	X	2 · Porto
Betsafe	EV+ 32% 12.50	5.25	1.23
Betsson	EV+ 32% 12.50	5.25	1.23
Nordicbet	EV+ 32% 12.50	5.25	1.23
Pinnacle	EV+ 18% 11.13	EV+ 12% 5.88	1.24

Odds updated 11 Sept, 17:39

Odds movement

1+8 %

11 %6 %

10.31 → 11.13

X+8 %

19 %14 %

5.44 → 5.88

2-3 %

77 %72 %

1.28 → 1.24

Over 2,5-1 %

56 %51 %

1.77 → 1.75

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Casa Pia 1Draw 0Porto 3

Goals: 2–8 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Porto come into this round on 6 straight wins.
FC Porto have scored in 31 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Casa Pia

Porto

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Casa Pia (0–11)

Porto (11–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Casa Pia

Porto

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Casa Pia

Porto

The teams in numbers

Performance	Casa Pia	Porto
Points	1	15
xPoints	2.8	9.2
xG per match	0.42	2.2
xGA per match	1.8	0.98
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.13	0.35
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.5	0.33

Playing style	Casa Pia	Porto
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.31
Field tilt	0.36	0.63
xT per match	0.85	1.5
xTA per match	1.2	0.5
Won balls, offensive half	25	27
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.21
Entries into the box per match	12	19
Entries into the box against	15	6
Pass completion %	0.74	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.73
Passes per match	303	387
Passes against per match	379	317
Switches of play per match	30	21.3
Long balls per match	30	32

Set pieces	Casa Pia	Porto
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.07
Corners per match	4	6.9
Corners against per match	5.2	3.8
xG per corner	0.01	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.31
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.63

Other	Casa Pia	Porto
Throw-in control	0.71	0.79

The goalkeepers	Andre Gomes (Casa Pia)	Diogo Costa (Porto)
Saves	11	9
Save %	52%	90%
xG prevented	30%	85%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Casa Pia

Fixtures, form & tips

Porto

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Casa Pia vs Porto according to our model?

The model gives Porto a 70% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Casa Pia 11%, draw 19%, Porto 70%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.