01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Casa Pia or draw (1X)65%
- Under 3.5 goals83%
Primeira LigaEstádio Pina Manique, Lissabon22°19 km/h
Läs på svenska
Casa PiaPossession control0–1
MoreirenseLow block & directThe model's lean: X (33%)
Casa Pia – Moreirense · Primeira Liga
1 · Casa Pia 33%X 33%33% Moreirense · 2
33%
33%
33%
Analysis: Casa Pia – Moreirense
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
A perfectly balanced match-up on paper, Casa Pia vs Moreirense offers an intriguing puzzle with both sides rated equally likely to win or draw. The numbers suggest a tight game, with the model giving each outcome — home win, away win, or draw — a 33% probability. Despite Casa Pia's recent three-match losing streak, the expected goals are nearly identical: 1.07 for the hosts and 1.08 for the visitors. This suggests neither side has a clear edge in attacking potency.
Casa Pia's playing style centers around possession control, contrasting sharply with Moreirense's low defensive block and direct attacking approach. Despite losing three consecutive matches, Casa Pia's xG within eight seconds of winning the ball (0.14) highlights their potential for quick transitions, though the practical impact remains limited because their overall xG is low. The small head-to-head sample since 2023, where the visitors have a slight edge with two wins, does little to sway this game towards a clear favorite.
With the model leaning towards a draw, the most likely scorelines reinforce the expectation of a low-scoring affair. A 1-1 draw appears most probable at 14%, followed closely by 1-0 outcomes for either side at 12%. The 36% chance of over 2.5 goals further indicates a game more likely to stay under the margin. The playing styles and defensive solidity of both teams also suggest a cautious encounter.
From a betting perspective, the value lies in backing Moreirense at odds of 3.05 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet, as the model rates them a 33% chance to win, offering a modest 1% edge. Given Casa Pia's poor form and the evenly matched nature of the clash, this angle presents the sharpest opportunity in a game that otherwise leans heavily towards a stalemate.
Casa PiaForm WDLLL
League ranking xG #17xGA #16xT #8xP/match #18Points #18
Key players
- David SousaCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
- João Pedro Goulart SilvaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
- Abdu ConteLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
MoreirenseForm WLDDL
League ranking xG #18xGA #10xT #16xP/match #17Points #16
Key players
- Nile Omari Mckenzie JohnFxG 0.04 · xT 0.01
- Gilberto BatistaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
- Francisco Miguel Teixeira DominguesLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
Final score
0 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Casa Pia 33% · Draw 33% · Moreirense 33%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Casa PiaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 12,64fair 18,26-31 %
MissMatchresultat - MoreirenseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 12,02fair 17,93-33 %
MissMatch prediction: Casa Pia – Moreirense
Predicted score matrix
Moreirense →
Casa Pia →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–012.0%
0–112.2%
0–26.8%
0–32.4%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–012.0%
1–113.9%
1–27.3%
1–32.6%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–06.7%
2–17.2%
2–23.9%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–02.4%
3–12.6%
3–21.4%
3–30.5%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–10.9%
4+–20.5%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.0-112%
- 3.1-012%
- 4.0-012%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,07–1,08
Both teams to score
44%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,2012%
124%
227%
319%
410%
5+
Under 2,564%
@1.52
Over 2,536%
@2.38
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Casa Pia or draw (1X)65%
- Under 2.5 goals64%
- Cassiano Dias Moreira to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score44%
- Over 2.5 goals36%
- Cassiano Dias Moreira to score24%
- Rafael Alexandre de Sousa Gancho de Brito to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw33% probability@3.14PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
- X · Draw33% probability@3.00BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
- X · Draw33% probability@3.00BetssonEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Casa Pia | X | 2 · Moreirense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.75 | EV+ 1% 3.00 | 2.62 |
| Betsson | 2.75 | EV+ 1% 3.00 | 2.62 |
| Nordicbet | 2.75 | EV+ 1% 3.00 | 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.85 | EV+ 5% 3.14 | 2.73 |
Odds updated 30 Aug, 11:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Moreirense win since 25 August — the odds have shortened from 3.53 to 2.73 (−23%).
1+33 %
49 %29 %
2.15 → 2.85
X-4 %
40 %20 %
3.28 → 3.14
2-23 %
41 %21 %
3.53 → 2.73
Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesCasa Pia 1Draw 1Moreirense 2
Goals: 7–7 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.
Key facts
- Casa Pia have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Casa Pia
Moreirense
Casa Pia (0–10)
Moreirense (2–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Casa Pia
Moreirense
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Casa Pia
Moreirense
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Casa Pia | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 1 |
| xPoints | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| Playing style | Casa Pia | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| Field tilt | 0.3 | 0.26 |
| xT per match | 0.91 | 0.49 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.62 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 5 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 349 | 340 |
| Passes against per match | 422 | 480 |
| Switches of play per match | 32.8 | 19.4 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 24 |
| Set pieces | Casa Pia | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| Corners against per match | 2.7 | 3.5 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.27 | 0.14 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| Other | Casa Pia | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| The goalkeepers | Andre Gomes (Casa Pia) | Andre Ferreira (Moreirense) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 7 | 4 |
| Save % | 44% | 44% |
| xG prevented | 24% | 19% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Casa Pia vs Moreirense according to our model?
The model sees a draw as the most likely outcome: Casa Pia 33%, draw 33%, Moreirense 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 36% and under at 64%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.