Estrela da Amadora vs Braga: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Primeira Liga23 August 2026Estádio José Gomes, Amadora19°23 km/h

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Estrela da AmadoraCounter-attacks & crosses

BragaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Braga (63%)

1 · Estrela da Amadora 15%X 23%63% Braga · 2

15%

23%

63%

Analysis: Estrela da Amadora – Braga

Anna Karlsson · 18 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

SC Braga have been nothing short of a goal-scoring machine lately, lighting up the scoreboard in 20 consecutive league matches. This streak alone suggests an uphill battle for CF Estrela Amadora, who come into this clash with the odds starkly against them. The model paints a clear picture: SC Braga are the 63% favorites to take all three points, and it's difficult to argue with that assessment given their prolific attacking form.

CF Estrela Amadora might have the slight upper hand in points and xPoints this season, with a marginal edge of 2 to 1 in both categories, yet the deeper statistics reveal a different story. Their defensive vulnerabilities, evidenced by conceding an average of 2.0 expected goals against per match, expose them to a Braga side that thrives on possession and high press. SC Braga's expected goals of 1.82 suggest they are well-equipped to exploit this, making a 0-2 scoreline highly plausible.

The head-to-head record, albeit derived from a small sample of four matches since 2023, shows CF Estrela Amadora struggling to secure a victory, managing just three draws and one loss. Although CF Estrela Amadora’s counter-attacking and crossing strategy could occasionally pose threats, it seems unlikely to consistently pierce Braga’s well-organized defense, which has been remarkably stingy with only 0.24 expected goals against per match.

Despite the 50% model probability for over 2.5 goals, the weather conditions, if poor, could temper the goal count. Yet, given Braga's relentless scoring nature, a low-scoring game isn't a sure bet. The odds from Bet365 at 1.80 for SC Braga to win present value, as Braga’s offensive consistency and defensive solidity should see them through.

In essence, CF Estrela Amadora face a daunting task, and with Braga’s high press, a polished 0-2 victory for the visitors seems the most likely outcome. The sharp betting angle here centers on taking Braga to win at those favorable odds, aligning with the model's strong lean towards an away victory.

Estrela da Amadora

Form LDDDD

League ranking xG #12xGA #16xT #9xP/match #13Points #9

Key players

Leandro AntonettiFxG 0.48 · xT 0.09
Abraham MarcusRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.10
Stefan LekovićCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.03

Braga

Form LDDDD

League ranking xG #11xGA #1xT #18xP/match #5Points #13

Key players

Fran NavarroFxG 0.10 · xT 0.03
Demir Ege TıknazCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
Gabriel SilvaLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Estrela da Amadora – Braga

Predicted score matrix

Braga →

Estrela da Amadora →

0–07.3%

0–112.4%

0–211.5%

0–37.0%

0–4+4.8%

1–05.6%

1–111.0%

1–29.7%

1–35.9%

1–4+4.1%

2–02.5%

2–14.5%

2–24.1%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.7%

3–00.7%

3–11.3%

3–21.2%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.2%

4+–10.3%

4+–20.3%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-112%
2.0-212%
3.1-111%
4.1-210%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

0,84–1,82

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

–

Over 2,550%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Braga to win63%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Braga to win63%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Jean-Baptiste Gorby to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Jean-Baptiste Gorby to score28%
Robson Lucas Oliveira Botelho to be booked23%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Estrela da Amadora 0Draw 3Braga 1

Goals: 6–7 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

SC Braga have scored in 20 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Estrela da Amadora

Braga

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Estrela da Amadora (4–4)

Braga (2–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Estrela da Amadora

Braga

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Estrela da Amadora

Braga

The teams in numbers

Performance	Estrela da Amadora	Braga
Points	2	1
xPoints	2	1.9
xG per match	1	1
xGA per match	2	0.24
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.08	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.05	0

Playing style	Estrela da Amadora	Braga
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.29
Field tilt	0.43	0.84
xT per match	0.84	0.34
xTA per match	1.7	0.35
Won balls, offensive half	20	43
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.2
Entries into the box per match	9	14
Entries into the box against	15	4
Pass completion %	0.76	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.73
Passes per match	316	509
Passes against per match	343	258
Switches of play per match	32.5	19.3
Long balls per match	36	22

Set pieces	Estrela da Amadora	Braga
xG from free kicks	0.01	0
Corners per match	2.5	1.9
Corners against per match	3	3.9
xG per corner	0.02	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.08	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.2	0
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.75

Other	Estrela da Amadora	Braga
Throw-in control	0.79	0.81

The goalkeepers	Leonardo Matias Baiersdorf Linck (Estrela da Amadora)	Bernardo Caltabiano Parise Fontes (Braga)
Saves	9	2
Save %	82%	50%
xG prevented	61%	75%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Estrela da Amadora vs Braga according to our model?

The model gives Braga a 63% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Estrela da Amadora 15%, draw 23%, Braga 63%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.