01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Famalicão to win48%
- Under 3.5 goals79%
Primeira LigaEstádio Municipal de Famalicão, Famalicão21°13 km/h
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FamalicãoPossession & high pressvs
Gil VicentePossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Famalicão (48%)
Famalicão – Gil Vicente · Primeira Liga
1 · Famalicão 48%X 29%24% Gil Vicente · 2
48%
29%
24%
Analysis: Famalicão – Gil Vicente
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Famalicão enters this clash against Gil Vicente with a 48% probability of securing victory, according to the model, yet both teams share a penchant for possession-based football. Despite the hosts' slight statistical edge, the visitors hold a more favorable xG of 1.5 per match, suggesting that they might pose a significant threat in front of goal. However, Famalicão's high press might disrupt Gil Vicente's control and lead to crucial turnovers.
A closer look at the most likely scorelines indicates an evenly matched contest, with both 1-0 to Famalicão and a 1-1 draw sitting at 13% probability. The small four-game head-to-head sample tilts toward a balanced outcome, but the form and expected goals data clearly favor Gil Vicente. Their superior defensive metrics, particularly an xGA of 0.53, could stifle Famalicão's attempts to capitalize on possession.
The over/under on 2.5 goals stands at 42%, hinting at a lower-scoring match, while the likelihood of both teams scoring is just under half at 46%. Given the hosts' slim win probability and Gil Vicente's defensive robustness, a 1-1 draw seems plausible.
FamalicãoForm DWDLL
League ranking xG #12xGA #9xT #7xP/match #15Points #14
Key players
- Georgios KoutsiasFxG 0.39 · xT -0.06
- Rodrigo PinheiroRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.26
- Marcos Vinicios Lopes MouraLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.22
Gil VicenteForm DLLWW
League ranking xG #6xGA #3xT #13xP/match #2Points #6
Key players
- Héctor José Hernández MarreroFxG 1.93 · xT 0.00
- Jonathan BuatuCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.12
- Facundo CaseresCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.17
Match prediction: Famalicão – Gil Vicente
Predicted score matrix
Gil Vicente →
Famalicão →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.0%
0–18.7%
0–24.3%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–013.1%
1–113.1%
1–26.0%
1–31.9%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–09.4%
2–18.9%
2–24.2%
2–31.3%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–04.4%
3–14.1%
3–22.0%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–02.1%
4+–12.0%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-013%
- 2.1-113%
- 3.0-010%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.2-19%
Expected goals
1,40–0,94
Both teams to score
46%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3010%
122%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,558%
@1.63
Over 2,542%
@2.28
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Famalicão to win48%
- Under 2.5 goals58%
- Simon Tom Elisor to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score46%
- Over 2.5 goals42%
- Simon Tom Elisor to score28%
- Facundo Agustín Cáseres to be booked27%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Famalicão48% probability@2.21PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Famalicão48% probability@2.15BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
- 1 · Famalicão48% probability@2.15BetssonEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Famalicão | X | 2 · Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 2% 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.35 |
| Betsson | EV+ 2% 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.35 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 2% 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.35 |
| Paddy Power | 1.90 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 5% 2.21 | 3.13 | 3.54 |
Odds updated 28 Aug, 20:37
Odds movement
1+7 %
47 %42 %
2.06 → 2.21
X-4 %
32 %27 %
3.26 → 3.13
2-6 %
28 %23 %
3.78 → 3.54
Over 2,5+1 %
44 %39 %
2.26 → 2.28
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesFamalicão 1Draw 2Gil Vicente 1
Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Famalicão
Gil Vicente
Famalicão (2–4)
Gil Vicente (3–0)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Famalicão
Gil Vicente
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Famalicão
Gil Vicente
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Famalicão | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 6 |
| xPoints | 2.8 | 4.5 |
| xG per match | 0.98 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 0.53 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.02 | 0.24 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.44 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | Famalicão | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| Field tilt | 0.6 | 0.62 |
| xT per match | 0.93 | 0.61 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.78 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 13 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.79 | 0.8 |
| Passes per match | 489 | 445 |
| Passes against per match | 271 | 284 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.2 | 22.1 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Famalicão | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 6.8 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per match | 3.1 | 3 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.07 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.35 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.5 |
| Other | Famalicão | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.8 |
| The goalkeepers | Lazar Carević (Famalicão) | Lucas Alexandre Galdino de Azevedo (Gil Vicente) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 5 | 4 |
| Save % | 56% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 30% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Famalicão vs Gil Vicente according to our model?
The model gives Famalicão a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Famalicão 48%, draw 29%, Gil Vicente 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.