Famalicão vs Maritimo: Prediction & Odds (16 Aug 2026)

Primeira Liga16 August 2026Estádio Municipal de Famalicão, Famalicão26°17 km/h

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FamalicãoCounter-attacks & crosses

MaritimoPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Famalicão (54%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.78 (+5 %)

1 · Famalicão 54%X 27%19% Maritimo · 2

54%

27%

19%

Analysis: Famalicão – Maritimo

Erik Lindberg · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Thirteen is the magic number for Famalicao, who are riding a wave of unbeaten form in the Primeira Liga. This kind of streak is no fluke, and it certainly doesn't come by accident. Famalicao are turning heads with their potent mix of counter-attacking football and aerial prowess, making them a formidable presence on the pitch. The model gives them a 54% chance of victory against Maritimo, underlining their superiority despite the points table suggesting otherwise.

Maritimo, meanwhile, boast a slight edge in both actual points (3) and expected points (2.1) over Famalicao’s respective 1 and 1.7. But these numbers can be deceptive. Famalicao's expected goals per match (1.4) outshine Maritimo's (1.1), suggesting a more dangerous attack, though Maritimo’s much tighter defense (0.51 xGA per match) hints they might just be able to keep things tighter at the back.

Famalicao’s likely game plan will involve absorbing pressure and striking swiftly on the counter, exploiting Maritimo’s penchant for possession-based play. This clash of styles could dictate the rhythm of the match, with Famalicao's defensive resilience tested against Maritimo’s control of the ball. With the model favoring a 1-0 Famalicao win as the most probable outcome (14%), the betting odds of the favored scoreline align well with the expected narrative.

The over/under 2.5 goals probability stands at 41%, with the odds of both teams scoring only slightly higher at 44%. Given this, a lower-scoring affair seems on the cards. The sharpest angle here might be a bet on under 2.5 goals, especially since the predicted scorelines and expected goals suggest a tight contest. Should you fancy a flutter, William Hill offers decent odds on under 2.5 goals, potentially capturing value in a match shaped up more by caution than flair.

Famalicão

Form WDDWD

League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #12xP/match #8Points #5

Key players

Marcos Vinicios Lopes MouraLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.08
Gil DiasRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.25
Gustavo SaRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.08

Maritimo

Form W

League ranking xG #10xGA #4xT #7xP/match #4Points #4

Key players

Paulo Henrique Rodrigues CabralLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.17
Igor JuliaoRWBxG 0.00 · xT -0.03
Romain CorreiaCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.01

Match prediction: Famalicão – Maritimo

Predicted score matrix

Maritimo →

Famalicão →

0–010.0%

0–17.6%

0–23.2%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.2%

1–014.4%

1–112.3%

1–24.9%

1–31.3%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.2%

2–19.1%

2–23.7%

2–31.0%

2–4+0.2%

3–05.6%

3–14.6%

3–21.9%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–03.0%

4+–12.4%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.1-112%
3.2-011%
4.0-010%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,52–0,82

Both teams to score

44%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,559%

@1.78EV+5%

Over 2,541%

@1.98

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Famalicão to win54%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Famalicão to win54%
Under 2.5 goals59%
Gil Bastião Dias to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score44%
Over 2.5 goals41%
Gil Bastião Dias to score29%
Raphael Gregório Guzzo to be booked27%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.559% probability@1.78BetsafeEV+5%
Under 2.559% probability@1.78BetssonEV+5%
Under 2.559% probability@1.78NordicbetEV+5%

Bookmaker	1 · Famalicão	X	2 · Maritimo
Betsafe	1.82	3.40	4.25
Betsson	1.82	3.40	4.25
Nordicbet	1.82	3.40	4.25

Odds updated 13 Aug, 14:36

Odds movement

1-3 %

53 %48 %

1.88 → 1.82

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.40 → 3.40

2+8 %

25 %20 %

3.95 → 4.25

Over 2,5+3 %

50 %45 %

1.92 → 1.98

Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 13/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Famalicao are unbeaten in their last 13 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Famalicão

Maritimo

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Famalicão (1–1)

Maritimo (1–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Famalicão

Maritimo

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Famalicão

Maritimo

The teams in numbers

Performance	Famalicão	Maritimo
Points	1	3
xPoints	1.7	2.1
xG per match	1.4	1.1
xGA per match	1	0.51
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0	0.4
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.14

Playing style	Famalicão	Maritimo
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.31
Field tilt	0.28	0.56
xT per match	0.51	1.1
xTA per match	1.6	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	15	24
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.15
Entries into the box per match	9	15
Entries into the box against	17	11
Pass completion %	0.79	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.66
Passes per match	387	249
Passes against per match	371	420
Switches of play per match	29.3	15.8
Long balls per match	27	22

Set pieces	Famalicão	Maritimo
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	6.3	2
Corners against per match	7.3	5.9
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.83

Other	Famalicão	Maritimo
Throw-in control	0.77	0.85

The goalkeepers	Lazar Carević (Famalicão)	Alfonso Pastor Vacas (Maritimo)
Saves	2	4
Save %	67%	100%
xG prevented	17%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Famalicão vs Maritimo according to our model?

The model gives Famalicão a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Famalicão 54%, draw 27%, Maritimo 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.