Famalicão vs Sporting CP: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Primeira Liga13 September 2026Estádio Municipal de Famalicão, Famalicão25°10 km/h

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FamalicãoPossession & high press

Sporting CPPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Sporting CP (59%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.80 (+3 %)

1 · Famalicão 18%X 23%59% Sporting CP · 2

18%

23%

59%

Analysis: Famalicão – Sporting CP

Oscar Nilsson · 8 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Sporting CP have dominated the limited head-to-head contests against Famalicão with two wins since 2023. Although such a small sample doesn't tell the whole story, it mirrors the broader form of both sides. The visitors arrive on the back of four consecutive victories, having netted in an impressive 39 straight league games. That's a scoring streak that speaks volumes about their attacking prowess.

The hosts, meanwhile, have struggled to find their footing this season, with a less-than-stellar points tally of three. The xPoints—5.5 to Sporting's 10.9—underline the disparity in performance levels. Even more telling is the gap in expected goals, with Sporting CP nearly doubling the hosts at 2.1 compared to Famalicão's 0.98. Both teams favor a high press and possession style, which should make for an interesting tactical battle, but it appears unlikely to tilt the scales in Famalicão's favor.

With model probabilities giving Sporting a 59% chance of victory, the visitors are rightly favored in this clash. The most likely scorelines—1-1, 0-2, and 1-2—all point towards a competitive but ultimately lopsided affair in Sporting's favor. The numbers for over 2.5 goals sit at 57%, while both teams to score is at 54%, suggesting a decent chance of finding the net for both sides but with Sporting likely to outgun their hosts.

The sharpest betting angle here is the over 3.5 goals market. With a 35% chance rated by the model and odds of 3.05 at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there is a compelling 7% edge for over 3.5 goals. It's an opportunity for those keen on a high-reward punt, especially given Sporting's relentless scoring form.

Famalicão

Form DLLDD

League ranking xG #10xGA #8xT #13xP/match #11Points #14

Key players

Marcos Vinicios Lopes MouraFxG 0.24 · xT 0.16
Marcos PenaCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.00
Georgios KoutsiasFxG 0.45 · xT -0.04

Sporting CP

Form DWWWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #4xP/match #2Points #2

Key players

Luis SuarezFxG 0.70 · xT 0.07
Maxi AraujoLWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.06
Fotis IoannidisFxG 1.46 · xT -0.04

Match prediction: Famalicão – Sporting CP

Predicted score matrix

Sporting CP →

Famalicão →

0–05.3%

0–19.8%

0–210.1%

0–36.8%

0–4+5.4%

1–04.7%

1–110.2%

1–210.0%

1–36.7%

1–4+5.3%

2–02.4%

2–14.9%

2–24.9%

2–33.3%

2–4+2.6%

3–00.8%

3–11.6%

3–21.6%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.2%

4+–10.5%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.0-210%
3.1-210%
4.0-110%
5.0-37%

Expected goals

0,98–2,01

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.02

Over 2,557%

@1.80EV+2%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sporting CP to win59%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sporting CP to win59%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Sergi Altimira Clavell to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Sergi Altimira Clavell to score28%
Leonardo Javier Realpe Montaño to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.557% probability@1.80PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
Over 3.535% probability@2.95BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
Over 3.535% probability@2.95BetssonEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Famalicão	X	2 · Sporting CP
Betsafe	5.40	3.60	1.60
Betsson	5.40	3.60	1.60
Nordicbet	5.40	3.60	1.60
Pinnacle	4.77	EV+ 3% 4.40	1.61

Odds updated 10 Sept, 08:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Sporting CP win since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 1.69 to 1.61 (−5%).

1+16 %

24 %19 %

4.12 → 4.77

X0 %

24 %19 %

4.42 → 4.40

2-5 %

60 %55 %

1.69 → 1.61

Over 2,5+2 %

56 %51 %

1.76 → 1.80

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 09/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Famalicão 0Draw 0Sporting CP 2

Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

Sporting Lisboa come into this round on 4 straight wins.
Sporting Lisboa have scored in 39 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Famalicão

Sporting CP

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Famalicão (4–6)

Sporting CP (14–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Famalicão

Sporting CP

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Famalicão

Sporting CP

The teams in numbers

Performance	Famalicão	Sporting CP
Points	3	13
xPoints	5.5	10.9
xG per match	0.98	2.1
xGA per match	1	0.57
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.08	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.15

Playing style	Famalicão	Sporting CP
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.33
Field tilt	0.62	0.63
xT per match	0.71	1
xTA per match	0.81	0.47
Won balls, offensive half	25	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.24
Entries into the box per match	11	12
Entries into the box against	9	6
Pass completion %	0.8	0.84
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.8
Passes per match	455	520
Passes against per match	279	319
Switches of play per match	21.9	35.8
Long balls per match	25	36

Set pieces	Famalicão	Sporting CP
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.02
Corners per match	6.3	5.5
Corners against per match	3.5	2.5
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.46
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.67

Other	Famalicão	Sporting CP
Throw-in control	0.73	0.77

The goalkeepers	Lazar Carević (Famalicão)	Rui Silva (Sporting CP)
Saves	8	7
Save %	57%	64%
xG prevented	28%	67%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Famalicão vs Sporting CP according to our model?

The model gives Sporting CP a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Famalicão 18%, draw 23%, Sporting CP 59%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.