Porto vs Arouca: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Primeira Liga23 August 2026Estádio do Dragão, Porto19°26 km/h

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PortoPossession control

AroucaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Porto (75%)Best value by the model: 2 · Arouca @ 14.50 (+35 %)

1 · Porto 75%X 16%9% Arouca · 2

75%

16%

Analysis: Porto – Arouca

Anna Karlsson · 18 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Four matches, four wins. Since 2023, FC Porto have held sway over Arouca, winning every encounter. Yet, facts favoring FC Porto don't necessarily paint the full picture. FC Porto enter this clash riding a wave of three straight victories and a remarkable 28-match scoring streak in the league. With a 75% probability of winning, the home side appears poised to continue their dominance.

Arouca, however, isn't to be dismissed lightly. They come in on a high, buoyed by four successive victories. While their playing style focuses on counter-attacks and crosses, Arouca's xG within eight seconds of winning the ball is notably higher than Porto's, suggesting potential for quick, opportunistic strikes. Yet, the expected goals tally of 0.71 for Arouca underscores the uphill battle they face against Porto's more robust defense.

FC Porto's grip on possession and relentless scoring track record makes a clean sheet victory plausible. With model probabilities heavily favoring them and their demonstrated ability to manage games at home, a 2-0 win, which is pegged at 13%, emerges as the most likely outcome. The over 2.5 goals metric leans slightly at 57%, but caution is warranted given the potential for rain or wind, which can suppress scoring.

Arouca's chance at an upset is slim, but the betting world offers a tantalizing prospect. With odds of 14.5 at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a notable 35% edge for those daring enough to back an Arouca surprise. While not a guarantee, the value is clear for the braver punters among us.

Porto

Form WLWWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #11xT #2xP/match #9Points #3

Key players

Gabri VeigaFxG 0.63 · xT 0.11
André Miguel Valente da SilvaFxG 0.65 · xT -0.06
William GomesRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.24

Arouca

Form DWWWW

League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #14xP/match #11Points #1

Key players

Näis DjouahraLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.35
Ivan BarberoRWxG 0.58 · xT 0.00
Taichi FukuiCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.00

Match prediction: Porto – Arouca

Predicted score matrix

Arouca →

Porto →

0–05.4%

0–13.4%

0–21.3%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–011.4%

1–18.5%

1–22.9%

1–30.7%

1–4+0.1%

2–013.1%

2–19.3%

2–23.3%

2–30.8%

2–4+0.2%

3–09.9%

3–17.0%

3–22.5%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.1%

4+–09.4%

4+–16.7%

4+–22.4%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-013%
2.1-011%
3.3-010%
4.2-19%
5.1-19%

Expected goals

2,25–0,71

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.28

Over 2,557%

@1.60

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Porto to win75%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Porto to win75%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Deniz Daniel Gül to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Deniz Daniel Gül to score31%
Tiago Alexandre de Sousa Esgaio to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Arouca9% probability@14.50BetsafeEV+35%reference odds
2 · Arouca9% probability@14.50BetssonEV+35%reference odds
2 · Arouca9% probability@14.50NordicbetEV+35%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Porto	X	2 · Arouca
Betsafe	1.21	5.70	EV+ 35% 14.50
Betsson	1.21	5.70	EV+ 35% 14.50
Nordicbet	1.21	5.70	EV+ 35% 14.50

Odds updated 18 Aug, 06:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

80 %75 %

1.19 → 1.21

X0 %

19 %14 %

5.70 → 5.70

20 %

9 %4 %

14.50 → 14.50

Over 2,5+1 %

62 %57 %

1.58 → 1.60

Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Porto 4Draw 0Arouca 0

Goals: 13–1 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Porto come into this round on 3 straight wins.
FC Porto have scored in 28 consecutive league matches.
Arouca come into this round on 4 straight wins.
FC Porto win 75% of their home matches all-time (52 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Porto

Arouca

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Porto (4–0)

Arouca (5–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Porto

Arouca

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Porto

Arouca

The teams in numbers

Performance	Porto	Arouca
Points	6	6
xPoints	3	2.5
xG per match	2.3	0.93
xGA per match	1.5	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.44
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.81	0.3

Playing style	Porto	Arouca
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.27
Field tilt	0.58	0.34
xT per match	1.6	0.62
xTA per match	0.44	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	26	16
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.28
Entries into the box per match	20	5
Entries into the box against	8	14
Pass completion %	0.79	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.75
Passes per match	367	384
Passes against per match	311	443
Switches of play per match	19.9	32.7
Long balls per match	33	39

Set pieces	Porto	Arouca
xG from free kicks	0.12	0
Corners per match	6.5	3.6
Corners against per match	7.5	4.1
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.05	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.31	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	1

Other	Porto	Arouca
Throw-in control	0.82	0.8

The goalkeepers	Diogo Costa (Porto)	Jose Fontan (Arouca)
Saves	6	5
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Porto vs Arouca according to our model?

The model gives Porto a 75% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Porto 75%, draw 16%, Arouca 9%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.