Primeira Liga

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    AlvercaAlvercaPossession control
    vs
    Estrela da AmadoraEstrela da AmadoraCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Alverca (46%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.70 (+5 %)

    Alverca – Estrela da Amadora · Primeira Liga

    1 · Alverca 46%X 28%26% Estrela da Amadora · 2

    Analysis: Alverca – Estrela da Amadora

    Erik Lindberg · · How the predictions work

    1.4 expected goals for Futebol Clube De Alverca versus a timid 0.82 for CF Estrela Amadora sets the stage for this weekend’s clash. This disparity not only underscores the home side’s offensive might but also calls attention to the visitors’ frailties. However, history throws a small wrench into the works: in two previous meetings since 2023, neither side has tasted victory, with both encounters ending in draws. While that may suggest a close contest, the sample size is too small to overshadow the current form and expected goals data.

    Futebol Clube De Alverca, with their possession-heavy style, seem well-poised to dictate the pace. Their attacking prowess is illuminated by an xG of 2.1 per match, which dwarfs Estrela Amadora's paltry 0.8. Yet, both teams show defensive vulnerabilities, with Alverca slightly better at capping chances against them at 2.5 xGA compared to Amadora's 2.6. The numbers suggest Alverca should edge this encounter, particularly with home-field advantage and a model probability of 46%.

    Despite the attacking intent, the likelihood for fireworks seems muted. With over 2.5 goals pegged at just 38%, combined with grim weather forecasts, the smart money leans towards a low-scoring affair. Pinnacle’s odds of 1.699 on under 2.5 reflect a strong value, a 5% edge against the model’s 62% likelihood. The weather’s potential to suppress goals is already baked into these figures, reinforcing the under as a savvy play.

    The most likely scoreline of 1-0, at 15%, dovetails neatly with the model’s lean towards Alverca. For the punters eyeing a home win, there’s a sliver of value there too. Pinnacle offers odds of 2.21, representing a slender but tangible 1% edge. While not a guarantee, Alverca’s control of possession and superior expected metrics make a compelling case. Expect a tight contest, but don’t bet against the home side claiming a narrow victory in the twilight of October.

    AlvercaAlverca
    Form WLDLL
    League ranking xG #5xGA #13xT #16xP/match #8Points #16
    Key players
    • Francisco Jorge Tavares OliveiraRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.07
    • Davy GuiCMxG 0.05 · xT -0.01
    • Bastien MeupiyouCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.00
    Estrela da AmadoraEstrela da Amadora
    Form LLDDD
    League ranking xG #11xGA #15xT #9xP/match #12Points #7
    Key players
    • Sidny CabralRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.24
    • Rodrigo PinhoFxG 0.51 · xT 0.03
    • Abraham MarcusRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.14

    Match prediction: Alverca – Estrela da Amadora

    Predicted score matrix

    Estrela da Amadora →
    Alverca →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–011.2%
    0–18.6%
    0–23.7%
    0–31.0%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–014.8%
    1–112.8%
    1–25.1%
    1–31.4%
    1–4+0.3%
    2
    2–010.6%
    2–18.7%
    2–23.6%
    2–31.0%
    2–4+0.2%
    3
    3–05.0%
    3–14.1%
    3–21.7%
    3–30.5%
    3–4+0.1%
    4+
    4+–02.4%
    4+–11.9%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-015%
    2. 2.1-113%
    3. 3.0-011%
    4. 4.2-011%
    5. 5.2-19%
    Expected goals
    1,40–0,82
    Both teams to score
    43%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,2
    Under 2,562%
    @1.70EV+2%
    Over 2,538%
    @2.16

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Alverca to win46%
    • Under 3.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    39%

    Fair odds

    2.56

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Alverca to win46%
    • Under 2.5 goals62%
    • Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos to score27%

    Combined probability

    7%

    Fair odds

    14.74

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score43%
    • Over 2.5 goals38%
    • Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos to score27%
    • Bernardo Schappo to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    2%

    Fair odds

    56.60

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.562% probability@1.70PinnacleEV+5%
    • Under 1.535% probability@2.95BetsafeEV+2%
    • Under 1.535% probability@2.95BetssonEV+2%
    Bookmaker1 · AlvercaX2 · Estrela da Amadora
    Betsafe2.183.153.35
    Betsson2.183.153.35
    Nordicbet2.183.153.35
    Pinnacle2.173.273.46

    Odds updated 13 Aug, 05:36

    Odds movement

    1-2 %
    46 %41 %

    2.21 → 2.17

    X+1 %
    32 %27 %

    3.24 → 3.27

    2+2 %
    30 %25 %

    3.40 → 3.46

    Over 2,50 %
    47 %42 %

    2.16 → 2.16

    Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Alverca 0Draw 2Estrela da Amadora 0
    Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Alverca
    Estrela da Amadora
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Alverca (0–2)
    Estrela da Amadora (2–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Alverca
    Steven Baseya: 41 passningar, xT 0.04BaseyaBastien Meupiyou: 40 passningar, xT 0.07MeupiyouDavy Gui: 34 passningar, xT -0.01GuiNabil Zoubdi Touaizi: 27 passningar, xT 0.09TouaiziIsaac James: 26 passningar, xT -0.01JamesYahya Bojang: 21 passningar, xT 0.02BojangIan Luccas Baroni Boetto: 20 passningar, xT -0.01BoettoMatheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira: 19 passningar, xT 0.02OliveiraLucas Figueiredo dos Santos: 14 passningar, xT 0.01SantosFrancisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira: 14 passningar, xT 0.04OliveiraFrancisco Edgar Chissumba Rodrigues: 8 passningar, xT 0.02Rodrigues
    Estrela da Amadora
    Bernardo Schappo: 33 passningar, xT 0.01SchappoLeonardo Matias Baiersdorf Linck: 30 passningar, xT 0.04LinckMax Scholze: 30 passningar, xT 0.03ScholzeLuan Patrick Wiedthäuper: 28 passningar, xT 0.04WiedthäuperRafa Soares: 26 passningar, xT 0.04SoaresEddy Gueladan Doué: 25 passningar, xT -0.02DouéSantiago Ferreira Serra: 22 passningar, xT -0.01SerraAbraham Marcus: 17 passningar, xT 0.03MarcusIanis Stoica: 15 passningar, xT 0StoicaLovro Zvonarek: 15 passningar, xT 0ZvonarekLeandro Antonetti: 12 passningar, xT 0.15Antonetti
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Alverca
    Steven Baseya: 41 passningar, xT 0.04BaseyaBastien Meupiyou: 40 passningar, xT 0.07MeupiyouDavy Gui: 34 passningar, xT -0.01GuiNabil Zoubdi Touaizi: 27 passningar, xT 0.09TouaiziIsaac James: 26 passningar, xT -0.01JamesYahya Bojang: 21 passningar, xT 0.02BojangIan Luccas Baroni Boetto: 20 passningar, xT -0.01BoettoMatheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira: 19 passningar, xT 0.02OliveiraLucas Figueiredo dos Santos: 14 passningar, xT 0.01SantosFrancisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira: 14 passningar, xT 0.04OliveiraFrancisco Edgar Chissumba Rodrigues: 8 passningar, xT 0.02Rodrigues
    Estrela da Amadora
    Bernardo Schappo: 33 passningar, xT 0.01SchappoLeonardo Matias Baiersdorf Linck: 30 passningar, xT 0.04LinckMax Scholze: 30 passningar, xT 0.03ScholzeLuan Patrick Wiedthäuper: 28 passningar, xT 0.04WiedthäuperRafa Soares: 26 passningar, xT 0.04SoaresEddy Gueladan Doué: 25 passningar, xT -0.02DouéSantiago Ferreira Serra: 22 passningar, xT -0.01SerraAbraham Marcus: 17 passningar, xT 0.03MarcusIanis Stoica: 15 passningar, xT 0StoicaLovro Zvonarek: 15 passningar, xT 0ZvonarekLeandro Antonetti: 12 passningar, xT 0.15Antonetti

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceAlvercaEstrela da Amadora
    Points01
    xPoints1.40.8
    xG per match2.10.8
    xGA per match2.52.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball1.30.04
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.350
    Playing styleAlvercaEstrela da Amadora
    Build-up efficiency0.290.27
    Field tilt0.270.38
    xT per match0.270.73
    xTA per match1.12.2
    Won balls, offensive half1723
    Pressing intensity0.210.25
    Pressing efficiency0.250.2
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.220.2
    Entries into the box per match78
    Entries into the box against1717
    Pass completion %0.750.72
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.6
    Passes per match278292
    Passes against per match347415
    Switches of play per match17.527.2
    Long balls per match2133
    Set piecesAlvercaEstrela da Amadora
    xG from free kicks00
    Corners per match8.85.2
    Corners against per match6.84.2
    xG per corner0.070.02
    xGA per corner against0.010.1
    First touch, offensive corners %0.440.2
    First touch, defensive corners %0.710.5
    OtherAlvercaEstrela da Amadora
    Throw-in control0.770.71
    The goalkeepersMatheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira (Alverca)Leonardo Matias Baiersdorf Linck (Estrela da Amadora)
    Saves26
    Save %50%100%
    xG prevented7%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Alverca vs Estrela da Amadora according to our model?

    The model gives Alverca a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Alverca 46%, draw 28%, Estrela da Amadora 26%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 15% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 38% and under at 62%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.