Primeira Liga

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    AlvercaAlvercaPossession control
    1–1
    Santa ClaraSanta ClaraLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 2 · Santa Clara (36%)

    Alverca – Santa Clara · Primeira Liga

    1 · Alverca 34%X 29%36% Santa Clara · 2

    Analysis: Alverca – Santa Clara

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Seven points for Santa Clara against just one for Alverca paints a clear picture of the visitors' superior form in this matchup. Despite the hosts' possession-oriented style, their struggles in converting possession into results are evident, not least in the xPoints gap. Santa Clara's low defensive line and direct approach have been more effective, supported further by a stout xGA of 0.89 per match compared to Alverca's troubling 2.0.

    The expected goals figures corroborate a lean towards a low-scoring affair, with both sides anticipated to find the net only sparingly, if at all. A 1-1 draw is the most likely outcome at 14%, yet a 1-0 victory for either side sits close behind. The model edges towards Santa Clara, but the difference is minuscule, suggesting a tight contest. The low 35% probability for over 2.5 goals underlines the expectation of a cautious encounter.

    Given Santa Clara's stronger form and more efficient playing style, they stand out as the model's lean in this closely matched fixture, though the margin over Alverca remains slim.

    AlvercaAlverca
    Form DLLDL
    League ranking xG #7xGA #17xT #14xP/match #9Points #15
    Key players
    • Francisco Jorge Tavares OliveiraRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.04
    • Ian Luccas Baroni BoettoCMxG 0.78 · xT 0.01
    • Isaac JamesLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.20
    Santa ClaraSanta Clara
    Form WLDWW
    League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #17xP/match #3Points #4
    Key players
    • Gonçalo Mendes PaciênciaFxG 1.19 · xT -0.03
    • Sidney Alexssander Pena De LimaCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
    • Diogo dos Santos CabralRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
    Final score
    1 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Alverca 34% · Draw 29% · Santa Clara 36%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - AlvercaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 11,73fair 18,26-36 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Santa ClaraBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 13,00fair 21,52-40 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Alverca – Santa Clara

    Predicted score matrix

    Santa Clara →
    Alverca →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–012.9%
    0–112.0%
    0–26.2%
    0–32.1%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–013.1%
    1–113.9%
    1–26.7%
    1–32.2%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–07.3%
    2–17.3%
    2–23.6%
    2–31.2%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–02.7%
    3–12.6%
    3–21.3%
    3–30.4%
    3–4+0.1%
    4+
    4+–00.9%
    4+–10.9%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.1%
    4+–4+0.0%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.1-013%
    3. 3.0-013%
    4. 4.0-112%
    5. 5.2-07%
    Expected goals
    1,09–1,00
    Both teams to score
    42%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,1
    Under 2,565%
    @1.52
    Over 2,535%
    @2.38

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Santa Clara or draw (X2)63%
    • Under 3.5 goals84%

    Combined probability

    54%

    Fair odds

    1.86

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Santa Clara or draw (X2)63%
    • Under 2.5 goals65%
    • Gustavo Klismahn Dimaraes Miranda to score15%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score42%
    • Over 2.5 goals35%
    • Rhaldney Norberto Simião Gomes to score23%
    • Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Santa Clara36% probability@3.33PinnacleEV+21%reference odds
    • 2 · Santa Clara36% probability@2.85BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
    • 2 · Santa Clara36% probability@2.85BetssonEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · AlvercaX2 · Santa Clara
    Betsafe2.552.92
    EV+ 4%
    2.85
    Betsson2.552.92
    EV+ 4%
    2.85
    Nordicbet2.552.92
    EV+ 4%
    2.85
    Pinnacle2.383.16
    EV+ 21%
    3.33

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 16:29

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Alverca win since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 3.23 to 2.38 (−26%).

    1-26 %
    45 %25 %

    3.23 → 2.38

    X-2 %
    41 %21 %

    3.21 → 3.16

    2+44 %
    45 %25 %

    2.31 → 3.33

    Pinnacle · 17 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Alverca 0Draw 1Santa Clara 1
    Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Alverca
    Santa Clara
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Alverca (3–7)
    Santa Clara (4–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Alverca
    Yahya Bojang: 125 passningar, xT 0.08BojangSteven Baseya: 118 passningar, xT 0.19BaseyaNabil Zoubdi Touaizi: 92 passningar, xT 0.25TouaiziIsaac James: 91 passningar, xT 0.55JamesDavy Gui: 87 passningar, xT -0.09GuiBastien Meupiyou: 78 passningar, xT 0.15MeupiyouMatheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira: 57 passningar, xT 0.03OliveiraLucas Figueiredo dos Santos: 57 passningar, xT 0.11SantosIan Luccas Baroni Boetto: 56 passningar, xT 0.01BoettoFrancisco Edgar Chissumba Rodrigues: 33 passningar, xT 0.03RodriguesRayan Lucas Marques de Souza: 27 passningar, xT 0.38Souza
    Santa Clara
    Pedro Pacheco: 116 passningar, xT 0.11PachecoDiogo dos Santos Cabral: 107 passningar, xT 0.11CabralPedro Ferreira: 91 passningar, xT 0.01FerreiraGuilherme Kennedy Romão: 70 passningar, xT 0.21RomãoLucas Franca: 66 passningar, xT -0.02FrancaEmanuel Moreira Fernandes: 62 passningar, xT 0.02FernandesSidney Alexssander Pena De Lima: 53 passningar, xT 0.04LimaDani Borges: 47 passningar, xT -0.08BorgesJosé Luís Rocha Tavares: 34 passningar, xT 0.03TavaresLuiz Fernando Salles de Castro: 32 passningar, xT 0.26CastroVinícius Lopes da Silva: 22 passningar, xT 0.29Silva
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Alverca
    Yahya Bojang: 125 passningar, xT 0.08BojangSteven Baseya: 118 passningar, xT 0.19BaseyaNabil Zoubdi Touaizi: 92 passningar, xT 0.25TouaiziIsaac James: 91 passningar, xT 0.55JamesDavy Gui: 87 passningar, xT -0.09GuiBastien Meupiyou: 78 passningar, xT 0.15MeupiyouMatheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira: 57 passningar, xT 0.03OliveiraLucas Figueiredo dos Santos: 57 passningar, xT 0.11SantosIan Luccas Baroni Boetto: 56 passningar, xT 0.01BoettoFrancisco Edgar Chissumba Rodrigues: 33 passningar, xT 0.03RodriguesRayan Lucas Marques de Souza: 27 passningar, xT 0.38Souza
    Santa Clara
    Pedro Pacheco: 116 passningar, xT 0.11PachecoDiogo dos Santos Cabral: 107 passningar, xT 0.11CabralPedro Ferreira: 91 passningar, xT 0.01FerreiraGuilherme Kennedy Romão: 70 passningar, xT 0.21RomãoLucas Franca: 66 passningar, xT -0.02FrancaEmanuel Moreira Fernandes: 62 passningar, xT 0.02FernandesSidney Alexssander Pena De Lima: 53 passningar, xT 0.04LimaDani Borges: 47 passningar, xT -0.08BorgesJosé Luís Rocha Tavares: 34 passningar, xT 0.03TavaresLuiz Fernando Salles de Castro: 32 passningar, xT 0.26CastroVinícius Lopes da Silva: 22 passningar, xT 0.29Silva

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceAlvercaSanta Clara
    Points17
    xPoints3.36.6
    xG per match1.31.6
    xGA per match20.89
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.50.53
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.440.07
    Playing styleAlvercaSanta Clara
    Build-up efficiency0.290.3
    Field tilt0.410.41
    xT per match0.590.47
    xTA per match0.850.92
    Won balls, offensive half2424
    Pressing intensity0.210.21
    Pressing efficiency0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.190.21
    Entries into the box per match99
    Entries into the box against1212
    Pass completion %0.750.71
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.62
    Passes per match300260
    Passes against per match413406
    Switches of play per match19.823.9
    Long balls per match2426
    Set piecesAlvercaSanta Clara
    xG from free kicks0.020
    Corners per match52.3
    Corners against per match3.35.6
    xG per corner0.050.04
    xGA per corner against0.010.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.470.71
    First touch, defensive corners %0.80.59
    OtherAlvercaSanta Clara
    Throw-in control0.710.6
    The goalkeepersMatheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira (Alverca)Lucas Franca (Santa Clara)
    Saves126
    Save %67%75%
    xG prevented37%27%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Alverca
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Santa Clara
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Alverca vs Santa Clara according to our model?

    The model gives Santa Clara a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Alverca 34%, draw 29%, Santa Clara 36%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 35% and under at 65%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 42% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.