Alverca vs Braga: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Primeira Liga5 September 2026

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AlvercaPossession control

1–2

BragaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Braga (67%)

1 · Alverca 14%X 19%67% Braga · 2

14%

19%

67%

Analysis: Alverca – Braga

Sofia Andersson · 5 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

SC Braga's 67% win probability frames this match decisively in their favor. The visitors' recent form, unbeaten in five league outings, underscores their dominance. They're consistent scorers, having found the net in 21 consecutive league matches, suggesting that Alverca's defense, conceding an average of 1.8 expected goals per match, is in for a challenge. Despite Alverca's possession-based approach, the expected goals tilt distinctly towards Braga, 1.80 to 0.86.

The small head-to-head sample, just two encounters since 2023, aligns with Braga's superiority, both matches won by them. While the xPoints show a slight edge for Alverca, reality paints a different picture. Braga's high pressing style is likely to disrupt Alverca's control, leading to a probable scoreline of 0-1 or 0-2. The 50% chance of over 2.5 goals reflects potential volatility, yet the balance leans towards a more controlled, lower-scoring affair.

Betting angles highlight strong value on Braga's win across several bookmakers: Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer odds of 1.75, presenting a 17% edge based on the model's assessment. This makes backing Braga an intriguing proposition for those eyeing value in the market—precision and form converge on the visitors here.

Alverca

Form LLDLD

League ranking xG #9xGA #16xT #13xP/match #11Points #16

Key players

Francisco Jorge Tavares OliveiraRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.04
Lucas Figueiredo dos SantosCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.06
Isaac JamesCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.16

Braga

Form DDDDW

League ranking xG #13xGA #1xT #18xP/match #5Points #11

Key players

Demir Ege TıknazCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
Vitor CarvalhoCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Victor GomezRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.13

Final score

1 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Alverca 14% · Draw 19% · Braga 67%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Sporting BragaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,89fair 6,88+0 %

Miss

Matchresultat - AlvercaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 19,79fair 29,58-33 %

Miss

Match prediction: Alverca – Braga

Predicted score matrix

Braga →

Alverca →

0–07.3%

0–112.3%

0–211.3%

0–36.8%

0–4+4.6%

1–05.7%

1–111.1%

1–29.7%

1–35.9%

1–4+4.0%

2–02.6%

2–14.7%

2–24.2%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.7%

3–00.7%

3–11.3%

3–21.2%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.2%

4+–10.3%

4+–20.3%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-112%
2.0-211%
3.1-111%
4.1-210%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

0,86–1,80

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@1.72

Over 2,550%

@2.38EV+0%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Braga to win67%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Braga to win67%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Ricardo Jorge da Luz Horta to score39%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Ricardo Jorge da Luz Horta to score39%
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Braga67% probability@1.91Betfair ExchangeEV+27%reference odds
Over 2.550% probability@2.38PinnacleEV+18%reference odds
2 · Braga67% probability@1.77PinnacleEV+18%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Alverca	X	2 · Braga
Betfair Exchange	4.10	3.55	EV+ 27% 1.91
Betsafe	4.65	3.40	EV+ 17% 1.75
Betsson	4.65	3.40	EV+ 17% 1.75
Nordicbet	4.65	3.40	EV+ 17% 1.75
Pinnacle	5.12	3.56	EV+ 18% 1.77

Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:33

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 1 September — the odds have shortened from 1.85 to 1.62 (−13%).

1+16 %

25 %15 %

4.40 → 5.12

X-1 %

31 %21 %

3.61 → 3.56

2-2 %

59 %49 %

1.81 → 1.77

Over 2,5+21 %

50 %40 %

1.97 → 2.38

Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Alverca 0Draw 0Braga 2

Goals: 0–8 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

SC Braga are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
SC Braga have scored in 21 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Alverca

Braga

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Alverca (4–8)

Braga (3–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Alverca

Braga

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Alverca

Braga

The teams in numbers

Performance	Alverca	Braga
Points	2	4
xPoints	4.2	3.9
xG per match	1.1	0.85
xGA per match	1.8	0.23
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.41	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.34	0.05

Playing style	Alverca	Braga
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.29
Field tilt	0.44	0.81
xT per match	0.55	0.41
xTA per match	0.8	0.34
Won balls, offensive half	23	37
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.25
Entries into the box per match	9	12
Entries into the box against	11	4
Pass completion %	0.75	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.72
Passes per match	296	458
Passes against per match	382	283
Switches of play per match	20.1	16.2
Long balls per match	24	20

Set pieces	Alverca	Braga
xG from free kicks	0.02	0
Corners per match	6.2	2
Corners against per match	3.5	3
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0
First touch, defensive corners %	0.71	0.67

Other	Alverca	Braga
Throw-in control	0.68	0.73

The goalkeepers	Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira (Alverca)	Bernardo Caltabiano Parise Fontes (Braga)
Saves	14	4
Save %	67%	67%
xG prevented	34%	79%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Alverca

Fixtures, form & tips

Braga

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Alverca vs Braga according to our model?

The model gives Braga a 67% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Alverca 14%, draw 19%, Braga 67%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.