Primeira LigaEstádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos20°13 km/h

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    Gil VicenteGil VicentePossession control
    vs
    Academico ViseuAcademico ViseuPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Gil Vicente (54%)

    Gil Vicente – Academico Viseu · Primeira Liga

    1 · Gil Vicente 54%X 27%19% Academico Viseu · 2

    Analysis: Gil Vicente – Academico Viseu

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Gil Vicente holds the upper hand against Academico Viseu, with a 54% probability of winning this clash. The hosts are not only ahead in the points tally with 7 compared to Viseu's 2, but they also dominate the expected points and goals statistics. The numbers suggest a robust advantage for Gil, particularly their defensive solidity, allowing just 0.46 expected goals against per match compared to Viseu’s leaky 1.8.

    Digging into the possible scorelines, the model highlights a 1-0 or 1-1 finish as the most probable outcomes, both sitting at 13%. This hints at a low-scoring affair, especially given that both teams prefer control through possession. With a meager 43% chance of seeing over 2.5 goals, the likelihood is a restrained match, certainly not a goal bonanza. The 46% chance for both teams to score further underscores a potential scarcity of goals.

    Form is clearly in Gil Vicente's favor. Their expected goals per match stand at 1.2 compared to Viseu's 0.87, suggesting the hosts have the offensive edge. Moreover, Gil's defense is significantly tighter, indicating that Viseu may struggle to find the net. The visitors' struggle is compounded by their low expected points tally of 2.9, reflecting their poor start to the season.

    The numbers suggest the home side should edge it, with a final scoreline likely settling around 1-0 or 2-0 in Gil's favor.

    Gil VicenteGil Vicente
    Form LLWWD
    League ranking xG #7xGA #3xT #16xP/match #4Points #6
    Key players
    • Jonathan BuatuCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
    • Marvin ElimbiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
    • Ricardo de Sousa EsgaioCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.13
    Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu
    Form DLDL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #17xT #12xP/match #17Points #15
    Key players
    • Cihan KahramanRWxG 0.04 · xT -0.01
    • Soufiane MesseguemFxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
    • Nikolaos MichelisCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04

    Match prediction: Gil Vicente – Academico Viseu

    Predicted score matrix

    Academico Viseu →
    Gil Vicente →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.6%
    0–18.0%
    0–23.8%
    0–31.1%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–013.3%
    1–112.7%
    1–25.6%
    1–31.7%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–010.1%
    2–19.1%
    2–24.1%
    2–31.2%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–05.0%
    3–14.5%
    3–22.0%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.6%
    4+–12.3%
    4+–21.0%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-013%
    2. 2.1-113%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.0-010%
    5. 5.2-19%
    Expected goals
    1,48–0,90
    Both teams to score
    46%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,557%
    @1.71
    Over 2,543%
    @2.15

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Gil Vicente to win54%
    • Under 3.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.67

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Gil Vicente to win54%
    • Under 2.5 goals57%
    • Santiago García González to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score46%
    • Over 2.5 goals43%
    • Santiago García González to score28%
    • Luís Manuel da Costa Silva to be booked27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Gil Vicente54% probability@1.91PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
    • 1 · Gil Vicente54% probability@1.88BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
    • 1 · Gil Vicente54% probability@1.88BetssonEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Gil VicenteX2 · Academico Viseu
    Betsafe
    EV+ 2%
    1.88    		3.304.10
    Betsson
    EV+ 2%
    1.88    		3.304.10
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 2%
    1.88    		3.304.10
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 4%
    1.91    		3.474.08

    Odds updated 4 Sept, 12:29

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    53 %48 %

    1.88 → 1.91

    X0 %
    30 %25 %

    3.46 → 3.47

    2-3 %
    25 %20 %

    4.22 → 4.08

    Over 2,5+2 %
    48 %43 %

    2.10 → 2.15

    Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Gil Vicente
    Academico Viseu
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Gil Vicente (3–0)
    Academico Viseu (4–8)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Gil Vicente
    Marvin Elimbi: 184 passningar, xT 0.3ElimbiJonathan Buatu: 162 passningar, xT 0.27BuatuRicardo de Sousa Esgaio: 159 passningar, xT 0.35EsgaioFacundo Caseres: 114 passningar, xT 0.23CaseresLucas Alexandre Galdino de Azevedo: 94 passningar, xT 0.06AzevedoDiogo Prioste: 79 passningar, xT 0.18PriosteWeverson Moreira da Costa: 73 passningar, xT 0.15CostaSanti Garcia: 60 passningar, xT -0.11GarciaAndreas Sejr Lausen: 54 passningar, xT -0.05LausenJosé Carlos Natário Ferreira: 53 passningar, xT 0.12FerreiraGil Pinto Martins: 49 passningar, xT -0.05Martins
    Academico Viseu
    Anthony Correia: 201 passningar, xT 0.38CorreiaNikolaos Michelis: 156 passningar, xT 0.09MichelisRicardo Alexandre Ribeiro Vieira: 151 passningar, xT 0.7VieiraEwerton Ferreira da Silva: 130 passningar, xT 0.03SilvaAlejandro García Mestanza: 83 passningar, xT 0.17MestanzaRuben Pereira: 73 passningar, xT 0.09PereiraCihan Kahraman: 70 passningar, xT -0.05KahramanGustavo Abreu Costa: 68 passningar, xT 0.08CostaJoão Guilherme de Sousa Crispim: 66 passningar, xT -0.03CrispimSoufiane Messeguem: 58 passningar, xT 0.43MesseguemPedro Henrique Barcelos Silva: 57 passningar, xT 0.11Silva
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Gil Vicente
    Marvin Elimbi: 184 passningar, xT 0.3ElimbiJonathan Buatu: 162 passningar, xT 0.27BuatuRicardo de Sousa Esgaio: 159 passningar, xT 0.35EsgaioFacundo Caseres: 114 passningar, xT 0.23CaseresLucas Alexandre Galdino de Azevedo: 94 passningar, xT 0.06AzevedoDiogo Prioste: 79 passningar, xT 0.18PriosteWeverson Moreira da Costa: 73 passningar, xT 0.15CostaSanti Garcia: 60 passningar, xT -0.11GarciaAndreas Sejr Lausen: 54 passningar, xT -0.05LausenJosé Carlos Natário Ferreira: 53 passningar, xT 0.12FerreiraGil Pinto Martins: 49 passningar, xT -0.05Martins
    Academico Viseu
    Anthony Correia: 201 passningar, xT 0.38CorreiaNikolaos Michelis: 156 passningar, xT 0.09MichelisRicardo Alexandre Ribeiro Vieira: 151 passningar, xT 0.7VieiraEwerton Ferreira da Silva: 130 passningar, xT 0.03SilvaAlejandro García Mestanza: 83 passningar, xT 0.17MestanzaRuben Pereira: 73 passningar, xT 0.09PereiraCihan Kahraman: 70 passningar, xT -0.05KahramanGustavo Abreu Costa: 68 passningar, xT 0.08CostaJoão Guilherme de Sousa Crispim: 66 passningar, xT -0.03CrispimSoufiane Messeguem: 58 passningar, xT 0.43MesseguemPedro Henrique Barcelos Silva: 57 passningar, xT 0.11Silva

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceGil VicenteAcademico Viseu
    Points72
    xPoints62.9
    xG per match1.20.87
    xGA per match0.461.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.190.15
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.120.28
    Playing styleGil VicenteAcademico Viseu
    Build-up efficiency0.270.29
    Field tilt0.540.37
    xT per match0.510.61
    xTA per match0.650.92
    Won balls, offensive half1416
    Pressing intensity0.210.25
    Pressing efficiency0.260.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.210.25
    Entries into the box per match710
    Entries into the box against1015
    Pass completion %0.810.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.790.77
    Passes per match412339
    Passes against per match337328
    Switches of play per match19.434.5
    Long balls per match2837
    Set piecesGil VicenteAcademico Viseu
    xG from free kicks0.030.08
    Corners per match3.72.9
    Corners against per match44.2
    xG per corner00.04
    xGA per corner against00.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.360.5
    First touch, defensive corners %0.750.47
    OtherGil VicenteAcademico Viseu
    Throw-in control0.760.68
    The goalkeepersLucas Alexandre Galdino de Azevedo (Gil Vicente)Ewerton Ferreira da Silva (Academico Viseu)
    Saves512
    Save %100%60%
    xG prevented100%37%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Gil Vicente vs Academico Viseu according to our model?

    The model gives Gil Vicente a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gil Vicente 54%, draw 27%, Academico Viseu 19%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.