01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Estoril Praia to win51%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Primeira LigaEstádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril19°12 km/h
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Estoril PraiaPossession & high press0–2
Rio AveLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Estoril Praia (51%)
Estoril Praia – Rio Ave · Primeira Liga
1 · Estoril Praia 51%X 26%23% Rio Ave · 2
51%
26%
23%
Analysis: Estoril Praia – Rio Ave
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Estoril Praia's possession-heavy, high-pressing style meets Rio Ave's low defensive block, setting up a fascinating tactical clash. With a 51% win probability for the hosts, Estoril comes in as the market favorite, bolstered by a stronger statistical profile. Their expected goals of 1.70 far outstrip Rio Ave's 1.09, underscoring a potential edge for the home side in terms of offensive output.
Recent form hints at a slight but clear advantage for Estoril, with a head-to-head record since 2023 showing two wins, one draw, and one loss against Rio Ave. While that sample is small, the numbers still tilt in Estoril's favor. The expected goals against both show vulnerabilities, but Estoril's pressing game might capitalize more effectively on Rio Ave's defensive setup.
Most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 suggest a tight affair, with Estoril perhaps edging it. A 1-0 win for the hosts reflects their 10% likelihood of that outcome and aligns with the game’s tactical narrative. However, the probability of both teams scoring is slightly above half, hinting at some potential for goals on both sides, especially if Rio Ave can exploit counter-attacking opportunities.
The model leans towards Estoril, offering a potential value play at the bookmakers. With the over 2.5 goals market sitting at 53%, there’s a slight lean towards the over, although this is a tight call. Bet365's odds of 1.95 for Estoril Praia might just be the sharpest angle here, pointing to value in backing the home side to clinch it, albeit in what could be a nervy 90 minutes.
Estoril PraiaForm DDLDL
League ranking xG #14xGA #13xT #5xP/match #14Points #12
Key players
- Yanis Redha BegraouiFxG 0.24 · xT 0.20
- Andre LacximicantLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.05
- Joao CarvalhoLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.15
Rio AveForm DLDLL
League ranking xG #16xGA #14xT #15xP/match #15Points #17
Key players
- Tamás NikitscherCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.08
- Georgios LiavasRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.18
- Jalen Aleix Miller BlesaFxG 0.10 · xT -0.05
Final score
0 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Estoril Praia 51% · Draw 26% · Rio Ave 23%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - EstorilBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,24fair 6,91-10 %
MissMatchresultat - Rio AveBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 11,88fair 16,56-28 %
MissMatch prediction: Estoril Praia – Rio Ave
Predicted score matrix
Rio Ave →
Estoril Praia →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.4%
0–16.3%
0–23.7%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–010.1%
1–111.7%
1–26.2%
1–32.3%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.8%
2–19.7%
2–25.3%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–05.0%
3–15.5%
3–23.0%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–03.1%
4+–13.4%
4+–21.9%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-06%
Expected goals
1,70–1,09
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@1.98
Over 2,553%
@1.92EV+2%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Estoril Praia to win51%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Ricard Sánchez Sendra to score19%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Ricard Sánchez Sendra to score19%
- Nelson Ighodaro Abbey to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Estoril Praia51% probability@2.02PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
- Over 2.553% probability@1.92PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Estoril Praia | X | 2 · Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.92 | 3.45 | 3.70 |
| Betsson | 1.92 | 3.45 | 3.70 |
| Nordicbet | 1.92 | 3.45 | 3.70 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 4% 2.02 | 3.59 | 3.84 |
Odds updated 22 Aug, 16:31
Odds movement
1+6 %
50 %45 %
1.90 → 2.02
X-2 %
29 %24 %
3.68 → 3.59
2-1 %
28 %23 %
3.86 → 3.84
Over 2,5+7 %
54 %49 %
1.80 → 1.92
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 20/08/2026 → 22/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesEstoril Praia 2Draw 1Rio Ave 1
Goals: 9–5 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Estoril Praia
Rio Ave
Estoril Praia (1–3)
Rio Ave (0–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Estoril Praia
Rio Ave
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Estoril Praia
Rio Ave
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Estoril Praia | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 0 |
| xPoints | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 0.82 | 0.57 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Playing style | Estoril Praia | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.56 |
| xTA per match | 0.89 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 313 | 283 |
| Passes against per match | 402 | 413 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.6 | 24.3 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Estoril Praia | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 5.7 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 6.7 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.27 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.64 |
| Other | Estoril Praia | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.55 | 0.81 |
| The goalkeepers | Antef Tsoungui (Estoril Praia) | Ennio van der Gouw (Rio Ave) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 3 | 8 |
| Save % | 100% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 52% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Estoril Praia vs Rio Ave according to our model?
The model gives Estoril Praia a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Estoril Praia 51%, draw 26%, Rio Ave 23%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.