01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Maritimo to win46%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
Primeira LigaEstádio dos Barreiros, Funchal21°11 km/h
Läs på svenska
MaritimoPossession control2–2
Academico ViseuCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Maritimo (46%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 11.50 (+32 %)
Maritimo – Academico Viseu · Primeira Liga
1 · Maritimo 46%X 29%26% Academico Viseu · 2
46%
29%
26%
Analysis: Maritimo – Academico Viseu
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Six points separate Maritimo and Academico Viseu in the league, a gap mirrored in their expected points as well. The hosts have shown a consistent edge across the board, particularly in xGA, conceding just 0.64 per match compared to the visitors' worrying 2.3. This defensive solidity suggests Maritimo should control the game's tempo with their possession-based style, pinning back a Viseu side that relies heavily on counter-attacks and crosses—a strategy that might struggle against Maritimo's compact defense.
Despite Maritimo's apparent superiority, the model assigns a 13% likelihood to a 1-1 draw, the most probable scoreline, signaling respect for Viseu's ability to snatch something from this game. The expected goals are close, Maritimo at 1.41 and Viseu at 1.13, hinting at a competitive fixture. However, the hosts' superior defensive numbers and home advantage keep them slightly ahead, with a 1-0 result also a plausible outcome. Lean under 2.5 goals at 53%, as Maritimo's defense could quell Viseu’s limited attacking firepower.
For those eyeing value, Betsafe offers a tempting 3.95 on Viseu, above the model's fair odds of 3.85. Though the edge is marginal, it underscores the unpredictable nature of football betting and the occasional room for calculated risk.
MaritimoForm WW
League ranking xG #9xGA #5xT #7xP/match #4Points #2
Key players
- Adrián Butzke BenavidesLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.19
- Mohamed Bouzaidi DiouriRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.08
- Martín Tejón FauliCAMxG 0.48 · xT 0.30
Academico ViseuForm DL
League ranking xG #15xGA #18xT #13xP/match #17Points #14
Key players
- Anthony CorreiaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
- Ricardo Alexandre Ribeiro VieiraRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.25
- Ruben PereiraCBxG 0.30 · xT 0.06
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Maritimo 46% · Draw 29% · Academico Viseu 26%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Academico ViseuBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 14,96fair 15,35-3 %
MissMatchresultat - MarítimoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,32fair 9,87-16 %
MissMatch prediction: Maritimo – Academico Viseu
Predicted score matrix
Academico Viseu →
Maritimo →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.2%
0–18.5%
0–25.0%
0–31.9%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–010.7%
1–112.9%
1–27.1%
1–32.7%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–07.9%
2–18.9%
2–25.0%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.7%
3–14.2%
3–22.4%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.8%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,41–1,13
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,553%
@1.70
Over 2,547%
@2.48EV+16%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Maritimo to win46%
- Under 2.5 goals53%
- Martín Tejón Fauli to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Martín Tejón Fauli to score28%
- Raphael Gregório Guzzo to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 4.511% probability@11.50Betfair ExchangeEV+32%reference odds
- Over 3.525% probability@4.80Betfair ExchangeEV+21%reference odds
- Over 2.547% probability@2.48Betfair ExchangeEV+16%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Maritimo | X | 2 · Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 2.12 | 3.30 | EV+ 8% 4.20 |
| Betsafe | 2.02 | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| Betsson | 2.02 | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| Nordicbet | 2.02 | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 3.41 | 3.89 |
Odds updated 22 Aug, 14:32
Odds movement
1+4 %
50 %45 %
1.97 → 2.05
X-2 %
31 %26 %
3.47 → 3.41
2+2 %
28 %23 %
3.83 → 3.89
Over 2,5+3 %
45 %40 %
2.15 → 2.22
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 20/08/2026 → 22/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Maritimo
Academico Viseu
Maritimo (3–1)
Academico Viseu (2–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Maritimo
Academico Viseu
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Maritimo
Academico Viseu
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Maritimo | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 1 |
| xPoints | 4 | 1 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| xGA per match | 0.64 | 2.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.34 | 0.04 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.07 | 0.48 |
| Playing style | Maritimo | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.33 | 0.3 |
| xT per match | 0.94 | 0.7 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 15 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 20 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 240 | 333 |
| Passes against per match | 491 | 350 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.8 | 30.1 |
| Long balls per match | 24 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Maritimo | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 1.5 | 3 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 5.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.82 | 0.58 |
| Other | Maritimo | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| The goalkeepers | Alfonso Pastor Vacas (Maritimo) | Ewerton Ferreira da Silva (Academico Viseu) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 7 | 9 |
| Save % | 88% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 94% | 60% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Maritimo vs Academico Viseu according to our model?
The model gives Maritimo a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Maritimo 46%, draw 29%, Academico Viseu 26%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.