Maritimo vs Benfica: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Primeira Liga5 September 2026Estádio dos Barreiros, Funchal22°9 km/h

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MaritimoPossession control

0–3

BenficaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Benfica (74%)Best value by the model: 1 · Maritimo @ 13.59 (+53 %)

1 · Maritimo 11%X 15%74% Benfica · 2

15%

74%

Analysis: Maritimo – Benfica

Erik Lindberg · 5 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT (corrected):

Fifty-two matches without a loss: that's the imposing shadow Benfica casts over Maritimo as they prepare for their Primeira Liga clash. The visitors' relentless form and ability to find the net consistently—having scored in 17 consecutive league games—sets a daunting stage. It's clear this isn't about whether Benfica will score, but rather how many they'll put past the hosts.

The model's prediction aligns with Benfica's dominance, giving them a 74% chance of victory. Maritimo's modest 11% probability is mirrored by their lower xG of 1.1 compared to Benfica's intimidating 3.0. When these figures reflect expected goals, it's not just about the quantity but the quality of opportunities the visitors are likely to create. Their aggressive press and possession game could easily unravel Maritimo's defensive setup.

The model's most likely scorelines point to outcomes like 0-2 or 1-2, each at 10%. These leanings support a result favoring Benfica, and Benfica's clear edge in xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball (0.84 vs Maritimo's 0.19) further underlines how quickly they can turn turnovers into scoring chances. With 65% of the model's scenarios hitting over 2.5 goals, the scales tip towards an open game, despite both teams' contrasting styles.

Despite being underdogs, the home side offers intriguing value. Odds of 12.5 from Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a 41% value edge for those willing to bet on a huge upset. However, for those adhering to sound analysis, the combination of Benfica's form and xGA of just 0.36 suggests Maritimo will struggle to breach their defense.

In conclusion, the numbers point to a 2-0 Benfica victory, satisfying both the over 2.5 goals expectation and their defensive prowess. While betting on Maritimo might offer theoretical value, aligning with Benfica's undeniable strength seems the prudent choice.

Maritimo

Form WWDL

League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #9xP/match #8Points #7

Key players

Mohamed Bouzaidi DiouriRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
Adrián Butzke BenavidesLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.15
Martín Tejón FauliCAMxG 0.33 · xT 0.19

Benfica

Form DWDWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #1Points #5

Key players

Vangelis PavlidisFxG 0.94 · xT 0.18
Alexander BahRWBxG 0.17 · xT 0.27
Gianluca PrestianniLWxG 0.54 · xT 0.45

Final score

0 – 3

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Maritimo 11% · Draw 15% · Benfica 74%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - MarítimoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 45,10fair 24,20+86 %

Miss

Matchresultat - BenficaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,95fair 4,17-5 %

Miss

Match prediction: Maritimo – Benfica

Predicted score matrix

Benfica →

Maritimo →

0–03.8%

0–18.2%

0–29.9%

0–37.7%

0–4+7.8%

1–03.3%

1–18.5%

1–29.7%

1–37.6%

1–4+7.7%

2–01.7%

2–14.1%

2–24.8%

2–33.7%

2–4+3.8%

3–00.6%

3–11.3%

3–21.6%

3–31.2%

3–4+1.2%

4+–00.2%

4+–10.4%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-210%
2.1-210%
3.1-19%
4.0-18%
5.0-38%

Expected goals

0,98–2,34

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,535%

@2.38

Over 2,565%

@1.52

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Benfica to win74%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Benfica to win74%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Vangelis Pavlidis to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Vangelis Pavlidis to score28%
Raphael Gregório Guzzo to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Maritimo11% probability@13.59PinnacleEV+53%reference odds
1 · Maritimo11% probability@12.50BetsafeEV+41%reference odds
1 · Maritimo11% probability@12.50BetssonEV+41%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Maritimo	X	2 · Benfica
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 24% 11.00	5.70	1.28
Betsafe	EV+ 41% 12.50	4.80	1.26
Betsson	EV+ 41% 12.50	4.80	1.26
Nordicbet	EV+ 41% 12.50	4.80	1.26
Pinnacle	EV+ 53% 13.59	EV+ 8% 7.16	1.20

Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:33

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Benfica win since 1 September — the odds have shortened from 1.25 to 1.20 (−4%).

1+29 %

13 %3 %

10.50 → 13.59

X+19 %

20 %10 %

6.03 → 7.16

2-4 %

82 %72 %

1.25 → 1.20

Pinnacle · 18 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Benfica are unbeaten in their last 52 league matches.
Benfica have scored in 17 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Maritimo

Benfica

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Maritimo (6–5)

Benfica (11–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Maritimo

Benfica

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Maritimo

Benfica

The teams in numbers

Performance	Maritimo	Benfica
Points	7	7
xPoints	6.4	7.5
xG per match	1.1	3
xGA per match	1.1	0.36
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.84
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.01

Playing style	Maritimo	Benfica
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.41	0.85
xT per match	0.87	1.9
xTA per match	1.1	0.35
Won balls, offensive half	27	35
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.26
Entries into the box per match	11	28
Entries into the box against	11	5
Pass completion %	0.74	0.84
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.77
Passes per match	291	525
Passes against per match	412	260
Switches of play per match	29.6	34.8
Long balls per match	36	36

Set pieces	Maritimo	Benfica
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.03
Corners per match	2.5	7.4
Corners against per match	4.4	1
xG per corner	0.05	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.72	0.33

Other	Maritimo	Benfica
Throw-in control	0.77	0.75

The goalkeepers	Alfonso Pastor Vacas (Maritimo)	Samuel Soares (Benfica)
Saves	17	3
Save %	77%	50%
xG prevented	47%	35%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Maritimo

Fixtures, form & tips

Benfica

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Maritimo vs Benfica according to our model?

The model gives Benfica a 74% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Maritimo 11%, draw 15%, Benfica 74%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.