Moreirense vs Benfica: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Primeira Liga23 August 2026Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos18°22 km/h

MoreirenseLow block & direct

BenficaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Benfica (73%)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Moreirense 11%X 17%73% Benfica · 2

17%

73%

Analysis: Moreirense – Benfica

Marcus Johansson · 18 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Benfica's unbeaten run of 51 league matches is a formidable backdrop as they prepare to face Moreirense, and the numbers suggest this streak is unlikely to be snapped. With a 73% probability of victory, the model leans heavily towards Benfica continuing their dominance. Their ability to find the net in 16 consecutive league matches underscores their attacking prowess, an element Moreirense will struggle to counter given their low defensive profile.

Expected goals highlight a stark contrast: Moreirense's 0.78 against Benfica's 2.26. This disparity is echoed in the xG per match, where Moreirense languish at 0.43 compared to Benfica's impressive 3.2. This suggests a chasm in quality that Moreirense's direct style is unlikely to bridge. Furthermore, Moreirense’s defence, with an xGA of 1.3, may find it exceedingly difficult to contain a Benfica side that thrives on possession and high press.

Benfica. There, the name alone sends shivers down the spine of many a Primeira Liga opponent, and it's easy to see why. Despite the small head-to-head sample of four matches since 2023, where Moreirense have failed to secure a win, the broader league form and expected goals data carry more weight in this analysis. The playing styles promise a clash of philosophies, but Benfica's consistency and firepower are likely to prevail.

Weather conditions are not a factor here, so the expectation for goals remains unaffected. The model suggests a 59% chance for over 2.5 goals, aligning with the most likely scorelines of 0-2 or 1-2. Moreirense’s ability to score seems in doubt with a 49% chance of both teams finding the net, suggesting a clean sheet for Benfica, especially considering their defensive record of 0.41 xGA per match.

For those looking for value, consider Paddy Power's odds on a Benfica win at 1.62. Given Benfica's league form, scoring streak, and the statistical edge they hold, this presents a calculated opportunity rather than a mere punt. With a likely scoreline of 0-2, expect the points and the goals to head back to Lisbon.

Moreirense

Form WLDDL

League ranking xG #17xGA #10xT #16xP/match #16Points #11

Key players

Nile Omari Mckenzie JohnFxG 0.04 · xT 0.01
Gilberto BatistaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
Francisco Miguel Teixeira DominguesLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10

Benfica

Form DDWDW

League ranking xG #1xGA #3xT #1xP/match #1Points #4

Key players

Vangelis PavlidisFxG 1.12 · xT 0.31
Gianluca PrestianniLWxG 0.56 · xT 0.53
Alexander BahRWBxG 0.24 · xT 0.27

Match prediction: Moreirense – Benfica

Predicted score matrix

Benfica →

Moreirense →

0–05.0%

0–110.5%

0–212.2%

0–39.2%

0–4+8.8%

1–03.5%

1–18.7%

1–29.5%

1–37.2%

1–4+6.9%

2–01.5%

2–13.3%

2–23.7%

2–32.8%

2–4+2.7%

3–00.4%

3–10.9%

3–21.0%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.1%

4+–10.2%

4+–20.2%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-212%
2.0-111%
3.1-210%
4.0-39%
5.1-19%

Expected goals

0,78–2,26

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

–

Over 2,559%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Benfica to win73%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Benfica to win73%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Vangelis Pavlidis to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Vangelis Pavlidis to score35%
Gilberto Dambi Batista to be booked20%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Moreirense 0Draw 1Benfica 3

Goals: 4–12 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

Benfica are unbeaten in their last 51 league matches.
Benfica have scored in 16 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Moreirense

Benfica

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Moreirense (2–6)

Benfica (9–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Moreirense

Benfica

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Moreirense

Benfica

The teams in numbers

Performance	Moreirense	Benfica
Points	1	4
xPoints	1.4	5.2
xG per match	0.43	3.2
xGA per match	1.3	0.41
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0	0.79
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.51	0.01

Playing style	Moreirense	Benfica
Build-up efficiency	0.24	0.31
Field tilt	0.26	0.87
xT per match	0.49	2
xTA per match	0.62	0.42
Won balls, offensive half	20	38
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.26
Entries into the box per match	5	31
Entries into the box against	10	7
Pass completion %	0.75	0.84
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.78
Passes per match	341	513
Passes against per match	482	268
Switches of play per match	19.4	29.7
Long balls per match	24	33

Set pieces	Moreirense	Benfica
xG from free kicks	0.01	0
Corners per match	3.5	6.5
Corners against per match	3.5	1.5
xG per corner	0	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.14	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.71	0.33

Other	Moreirense	Benfica
Throw-in control	0.82	0.77

The goalkeepers	Andre Ferreira (Moreirense)	Samuel Soares (Benfica)
Saves	4	2
Save %	44%	50%
xG prevented	19%	39%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Moreirense vs Benfica according to our model?

The model gives Benfica a 73% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Moreirense 11%, draw 17%, Benfica 73%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.