Moreirense vs Maritimo: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Primeira Liga13 September 2026Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos24°11 km/h

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MoreirenseLow block & direct

MaritimoPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Maritimo (36%)Soft draw

1 · Moreirense 36%X 28%36% Maritimo · 2

36%

28%

36%

Analysis: Moreirense – Maritimo

Erik Lindberg · 8 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Maritimo's possession control might be the key factor in this clash against Moreirense, whose low-defense and direct play style could struggle against the visitors' methodical approach. Both teams are evenly matched according to the probabilities, with each given a 36% chance of winning and a 28% likelihood for a draw. However, Maritimo's form and metrics suggest they carry a slight edge.

The visitors have accumulated more points (7) compared to the hosts' 4 and display superior expected points (7.0 vs. 3.9) and expected goals per match (0.91 vs. 0.56). Moreirense, on the other hand, is leaking goals with an xGA of 1.6 per match, significantly worse than Maritimo's 1.1. This defensive frailty could prove costly against a possession-based team.

Both form and expected goals support the same verdict. Likely scorelines offer a cautious nod towards a 1-1 draw at 13%, yet 0-1 in favor of the visitors is close behind at 11%. With a 51% chance for both teams to score, we are looking at a tight, cautious game where defenses might just hold sway.

The over 2.5 goals probability at 46% suggests a restrained approach to goal-scoring wagers. However, there's notable value in betting markets for those with an eye on potential volatility. Over 3.5 goals comes with a 24% model rating but is offered at 4.45 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet — an 8% edge. While not the likeliest outcome, the value exists for those willing to take a calculated risk. Ultimately, a narrow 0-1 victory for the visitors aligns with the numbers, leaning towards a low-scoring affair with the possibility of an unexpected goal surge drawing interest.

Moreirense

Form DDLWL

League ranking xG #16xGA #13xT #18xP/match #14Points #13

Key players

Nile Omari Mckenzie JohnFxG 0.03 · xT 0.03
Dinis PintoRWBxG 0.22 · xT 0.07
Francisco Miguel Teixeira DominguesLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07

Maritimo

Form WWDLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #9xT #12xP/match #8Points #8

Key players

Mohamed Bouzaidi DiouriRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
Paulo Henrique Rodrigues CabralLWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.13
Adrián Butzke BenavidesLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Moreirense – Maritimo

Predicted score matrix

Maritimo →

Moreirense →

0–08.5%

0–110.8%

0–27.6%

0–33.4%

0–4+1.6%

1–08.9%

1–113.1%

1–28.7%

1–33.9%

1–4+1.8%

2–05.3%

2–17.3%

2–25.0%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.0%

3–12.8%

3–21.9%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.7%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-09%
4.1-29%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

1,14–1,36

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.62

Over 2,546%

@2.30EV+5%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Maritimo or draw (X2)69%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Maritimo or draw (X2)69%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Raphael Gregório Guzzo to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Alan de Souza Guimarães to score28%
Vladan Danilović to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Maritimo36% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
2 · Maritimo36% probability@3.05BetssonEV+11%reference odds
2 · Maritimo36% probability@3.05NordicbetEV+11%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Moreirense	X	2 · Maritimo
Bet365	2.75	3.10	2.55
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 4% 2.92	3.20	2.62
Betsafe	2.35	3.00	EV+ 11% 3.05
Betsson	2.35	3.00	EV+ 11% 3.05
Nordicbet	2.35	3.00	EV+ 11% 3.05
Pinnacle	2.45	3.18	EV+ 10% 3.02

Odds updated 11 Sept, 12:26

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Moreirense win since 10 September — the odds have shortened from 2.72 to 2.45 (−10%).

1-10 %

39 %34 %

2.72 → 2.45

X0 %

32 %27 %

3.18 → 3.18

2+12 %

36 %31 %

2.70 → 3.02

Over 2,5-1 %

44 %39 %

2.32 → 2.30

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 10/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Moreirense

Maritimo

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Moreirense (4–8)

Maritimo (6–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Moreirense

Maritimo

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Moreirense

Maritimo

The teams in numbers

Performance	Moreirense	Maritimo
Points	4	7
xPoints	3.9	7
xG per match	0.56	0.91
xGA per match	1.6	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.09	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.47	0.16

Playing style	Moreirense	Maritimo
Build-up efficiency	0.24	0.31
Field tilt	0.22	0.37
xT per match	0.46	0.75
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	18	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.19
Entries into the box per match	5	10
Entries into the box against	16	13
Pass completion %	0.69	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.66
Passes per match	253	288
Passes against per match	451	419
Switches of play per match	14.5	29.4
Long balls per match	20	35

Set pieces	Moreirense	Maritimo
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.01
Corners per match	2.2	2.6
Corners against per match	5.2	4.5
xG per corner	0	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.07	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.11	0.46
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.7

Other	Moreirense	Maritimo
Throw-in control	0.72	0.72

The goalkeepers	Andre Ferreira (Moreirense)	Alfonso Pastor Vacas (Maritimo)
Saves	13	21
Save %	65%	72%
xG prevented	38%	38%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Moreirense

Fixtures, form & tips

Maritimo

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Moreirense vs Maritimo according to our model?

The model gives Maritimo a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Moreirense 36%, draw 28%, Maritimo 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.