Primeira LigaEstádio da Madeira, Funchal22°7 km/h

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    NacionalNacionalPossession control
    2–3
    Estrela da AmadoraEstrela da AmadoraCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Nacional (47%)

    Nacional – Estrela da Amadora · Primeira Liga

    1 · Nacional 47%X 30%23% Estrela da Amadora · 2

    Analysis: Nacional – Estrela da Amadora

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    A pivotal figure looms large in the clash between Nacional and Estrela da Amadora: the 47% probability backing the home side. The model's lean toward Nacional is underscored by their superior expected goals (1.51 to 0.97), hinting at a match where the hosts control possession and dictate pace. Despite a small head-to-head sample since 2023 showing mixed results (1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses for Nacional), the current form and expected goals favor Nacional.

    The numbers paint a clear picture: a closely contested yet lean affair, with a 45% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance both teams score. Nacional's possession control is set against the visitors' counter-attacking style, which may limit Estrela's opportunities. The most likely scoreline predictions of 1-1 (13%) and 1-0 (12%) reflect this dynamic, lending a slight edge to a low-scoring outcome.

    For bettors, the value lies with the home side. Nacional's odds of 2.32 at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet provide a 9% edge, given the model's 47% probability. This makes backing the hosts a compelling proposition, with a likely scoreline of 1-0 or 2-0 in their favor.

    NacionalNacional
    Form LWDWL
    League ranking xG #8xGA #14xT #5xP/match #13Points #8
    Key players
    • Leonardo Rodrigues dos SantosCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.30
    • José Vitor Lima CardosoCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.17
    • Igor Matheus Liziero PereiraCMxG 0.29 · xT 0.03
    Estrela da AmadoraEstrela da Amadora
    Form LDDDD
    League ranking xG #11xGA #15xT #9xP/match #12Points #11
    Key players
    • Leandro AntonettiFxG 0.48 · xT 0.09
    • Abraham MarcusRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.10
    • Stefan LekovićCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.03
    Final score
    2 – 3
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Nacional 47% · Draw 30% · Estrela da Amadora 23%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - NacionalBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,07fair 9,08-11 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Estrela AmadoraBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 10,61fair 21,54-51 %
    Hit

    Match prediction: Nacional – Estrela da Amadora

    Predicted score matrix

    Estrela da Amadora →
    Nacional →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.7%
    0–17.7%
    0–23.9%
    0–31.3%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–012.2%
    1–112.6%
    1–26.0%
    1–31.9%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–09.5%
    2–19.3%
    2–24.5%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–04.8%
    3–14.7%
    3–22.3%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.5%
    4+–12.5%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.0-09%
    Expected goals
    1,51–0,97
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,555%
    @1.86EV+2%
    Over 2,545%
    @2.02

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Nacional to win47%
    • Under 3.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    36%

    Fair odds

    2.79

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Nacional to win47%
    • Under 2.5 goals55%
    • André Alexandre Carreira Sousa to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals45%
    • André Alexandre Carreira Sousa to score24%
    • Oumar Jacky Ngom to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Nacional47% probability@2.37PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
    • 1 · Nacional47% probability@2.32BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
    • 1 · Nacional47% probability@2.32BetssonEV+9%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · NacionalX2 · Estrela da Amadora
    Betsafe
    EV+ 9%
    2.32    		3.153.05
    Betsson
    EV+ 9%
    2.32    		3.153.05
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 9%
    2.32    		3.153.05
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 12%
    2.37    		3.313.20

    Odds updated 30 Aug, 11:35

    Odds movement

    1-3 %
    43 %38 %

    2.45 → 2.37

    X+3 %
    32 %27 %

    3.21 → 3.31

    2+7 %
    33 %28 %

    2.99 → 3.20

    Over 2,50 %
    50 %45 %

    2.03 → 2.02

    Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Nacional 1Draw 1Estrela da Amadora 2
    Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 1,8)

    Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Nacional
    Estrela da Amadora
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Nacional (4–3)
    Estrela da Amadora (4–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Nacional
    José Vitor Lima Cardoso: 173 passningar, xT 0.49CardosoLeonardo Rodrigues dos Santos: 169 passningar, xT 0.96SantosMatheus Dias: 126 passningar, xT 0.04DiasIgor Matheus Liziero Pereira: 104 passningar, xT 0.05PereiraWesley David de Oliveira Andrade: 85 passningar, xT 0.43AndradeFilipe Soares: 80 passningar, xT 0.16SoaresDaniel de Melo Araújo Júnior: 69 passningar, xT 0.09JúniorRenato Bellucci Marin: 61 passningar, xT 0.03MarinMarkus Gustav Jensen: 59 passningar, xT 0.05JensenMiguel Baeza: 41 passningar, xT 0.22BaezaPablo Ruan Messias Cardozo: 29 passningar, xT -0.05Cardozo
    Estrela da Amadora
    Luan Patrick Wiedthäuper: 92 passningar, xT 0.16WiedthäuperEddy Gueladan Doué: 64 passningar, xT 0.03DouéLeonardo Matias Baiersdorf Linck: 56 passningar, xT 0.04LinckRafa Soares: 55 passningar, xT 0.06SoaresStefan Leković: 50 passningar, xT 0.03LekovićMax Scholze: 49 passningar, xT 0.04ScholzeAbraham Marcus: 36 passningar, xT 0.19MarcusJefferson Encada: 33 passningar, xT 0.01EncadaBernardo Schappo: 33 passningar, xT 0.01SchappoIanis Stoica: 31 passningar, xT 0.08StoicaLovro Zvonarek: 30 passningar, xT 0.02Zvonarek
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Nacional
    José Vitor Lima Cardoso: 173 passningar, xT 0.49CardosoLeonardo Rodrigues dos Santos: 169 passningar, xT 0.96SantosMatheus Dias: 126 passningar, xT 0.04DiasIgor Matheus Liziero Pereira: 104 passningar, xT 0.05PereiraWesley David de Oliveira Andrade: 85 passningar, xT 0.43AndradeFilipe Soares: 80 passningar, xT 0.16SoaresDaniel de Melo Araújo Júnior: 69 passningar, xT 0.09JúniorRenato Bellucci Marin: 61 passningar, xT 0.03MarinMarkus Gustav Jensen: 59 passningar, xT 0.05JensenMiguel Baeza: 41 passningar, xT 0.22BaezaPablo Ruan Messias Cardozo: 29 passningar, xT -0.05Cardozo
    Estrela da Amadora
    Luan Patrick Wiedthäuper: 92 passningar, xT 0.16WiedthäuperEddy Gueladan Doué: 64 passningar, xT 0.03DouéLeonardo Matias Baiersdorf Linck: 56 passningar, xT 0.04LinckRafa Soares: 55 passningar, xT 0.06SoaresStefan Leković: 50 passningar, xT 0.03LekovićMax Scholze: 49 passningar, xT 0.04ScholzeAbraham Marcus: 36 passningar, xT 0.19MarcusJefferson Encada: 33 passningar, xT 0.01EncadaBernardo Schappo: 33 passningar, xT 0.01SchappoIanis Stoica: 31 passningar, xT 0.08StoicaLovro Zvonarek: 30 passningar, xT 0.02Zvonarek

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceNacionalEstrela da Amadora
    Points42
    xPoints2.92
    xG per match1.21
    xGA per match1.81.9
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.060.08
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.250.05
    Playing styleNacionalEstrela da Amadora
    Build-up efficiency0.310.27
    Field tilt0.530.43
    xT per match0.960.84
    xTA per match0.791.7
    Won balls, offensive half2720
    Pressing intensity0.230.25
    Pressing efficiency0.310.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.24
    Entries into the box per match119
    Entries into the box against1015
    Pass completion %0.770.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.68
    Passes per match350315
    Passes against per match296341
    Switches of play per match40.832.4
    Long balls per match3936
    Set piecesNacionalEstrela da Amadora
    xG from free kicks00.01
    Corners per match4.62.5
    Corners against per match3.93
    xG per corner0.040.02
    xGA per corner against0.030.08
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.2
    First touch, defensive corners %0.670.5
    OtherNacionalEstrela da Amadora
    Throw-in control0.670.79
    The goalkeepersRenato Bellucci Marin (Nacional)Leonardo Matias Baiersdorf Linck (Estrela da Amadora)
    Saves129
    Save %80%82%
    xG prevented72%61%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Nacional
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Estrela da Amadora
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Nacional vs Estrela da Amadora according to our model?

    The model gives Nacional a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nacional 47%, draw 30%, Estrela da Amadora 23%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.