Rio Ave vs Estrela da Amadora: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Primeira Liga13 September 2026Estádio dos Arcos, Vila do Conde21°7 km/h

Läs på svenska

Rio AveLow block & direct

Estrela da AmadoraCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Rio Ave (37%)

1 · Rio Ave 37%X 32%31% Estrela da Amadora · 2

37%

32%

31%

Analysis: Rio Ave – Estrela da Amadora

Marcus Johansson · 8 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The numbers set the stage for a tight encounter between Rio Ave and Estrela da Amadora. The visitors arrive with a strong unbeaten streak of six league matches, suggesting resilience and effective counter-attacking tactics. In contrast, the hosts, despite historically having the upper hand in this head-to-head matchup, have struggled this season, reflected in their low xG per match of just 0.54 compared to Estrela's 1.2.

Rio Ave's direct style may not be enough to break down Estrela's defensive setup, especially given the visitors' efficiency in minimizing expected goals against (1.5 xGA per match) compared to the hosts' vulnerable 1.8. This defensive solidity has been key to Estrela's recent form, propelling them ahead of Rio in both points and expected points.

While Rio Ave has managed to win three of their last four encounters against Estrela, the small sample size diminishes the weight of this head-to-head record. Current form and metrics clearly favor Estrela, who are likely to exploit Rio Ave's defensive weaknesses with their cross-heavy play and counter-attacking prowess.

The expected goals suggest a close contest, with a slight edge towards the home side, but the model's probabilities underline the potential for a draw, notably backed by a 5% value edge at odds of 3.3 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With a 44% chance for over 2.5 goals and a nearly even 49% for both teams to score, this match may well be a low-scoring affair, leaning towards a 1-1 draw.

In this context, the most compelling angle lies in the draw, buoyed by the model's assessment and the consistent odds across bookmakers. While the temptation might be to back the hosts based on historical outcomes, the tactical setup and current form suggest Estrela will leave with at least a point.

Rio Ave

Form LLWLL

League ranking xG #17xGA #14xT #17xP/match #15Points #15

Key players

Jalen Aleix Miller BlesaFxG 0.08 · xT 0.02
Tamble Ulisses Folgado MonteiroFxG 0.20 · xT 0.01
Andreas Richardos NtoiFxG 0.03 · xT 0.03

Estrela da Amadora

Form DDDWD

League ranking xG #8xGA #12xT #5xP/match #9Points #9

Key players

Leandro AntonettiFxG 0.43 · xT 0.08
Abraham MarcusRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.13
Stefan LekovićCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Rio Ave – Estrela da Amadora

Predicted score matrix

Estrela da Amadora →

Rio Ave →

0–09.2%

0–18.9%

0–24.9%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.6%

1–011.8%

1–113.2%

1–26.7%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.4%

2–18.8%

2–24.6%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–03.8%

3–14.0%

3–22.1%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.8%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.0-09%
4.0-19%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,37–1,05

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.75

Over 2,544%

@2.10

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Rio Ave or draw (1X)72%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Rio Ave or draw (1X)72%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Jalen Aleix Miller Blesa to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Jalen Aleix Miller Blesa to score21%
Oumar Jacky Ngom to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Rio Ave37% probability@2.84PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
X · Draw32% probability@3.25Bet365EV+4%reference odds
X · Draw32% probability@3.22PinnacleEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Rio Ave	X	2 · Estrela da Amadora
Bet365	EV+ 2% 2.75	EV+ 4% 3.25	2.50
Betsafe	EV+ 2% 2.75	EV+ 2% 3.20	2.45
Betsson	EV+ 2% 2.75	EV+ 2% 3.20	2.45
Nordicbet	EV+ 2% 2.75	EV+ 2% 3.20	2.45
Pinnacle	EV+ 6% 2.84	EV+ 3% 3.22	2.56

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:39

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Estrela da Amadora win since 11 September — the odds have shortened from 2.80 to 2.56 (−9%).

1+9 %

37 %32 %

2.60 → 2.84

X0 %

32 %27 %

3.22 → 3.22

2-9 %

38 %33 %

2.80 → 2.56

Over 2,50 %

48 %43 %

2.10 → 2.10

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 11/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Rio Ave 3Draw 0Estrela da Amadora 1

Goals: 6–3 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

CF Estrela Amadora are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rio Ave

Estrela da Amadora

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Rio Ave (2–11)

Estrela da Amadora (9–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rio Ave

Estrela da Amadora

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rio Ave

Estrela da Amadora

The teams in numbers

Performance	Rio Ave	Estrela da Amadora
Points	3	6
xPoints	4	5.2
xG per match	0.54	1.2
xGA per match	1.8	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.11

Playing style	Rio Ave	Estrela da Amadora
Build-up efficiency	0.26	0.27
Field tilt	0.34	0.46
xT per match	0.47	0.86
xTA per match	1.4	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	21	23
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.15	0.22
Entries into the box per match	6	11
Entries into the box against	15	12
Pass completion %	0.75	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.71
Passes per match	300	303
Passes against per match	446	349
Switches of play per match	23	30
Long balls per match	28	32

Set pieces	Rio Ave	Estrela da Amadora
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.01
Corners per match	3	3.3
Corners against per match	5.7	3.8
xG per corner	0.01	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.6

Other	Rio Ave	Estrela da Amadora
Throw-in control	0.66	0.7

The goalkeepers	Ennio van der Gouw (Rio Ave)	Leonardo Matias Baiersdorf Linck (Estrela da Amadora)
Saves	19	14
Save %	63%	70%
xG prevented	53%	45%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Rio Ave

Fixtures, form & tips

Estrela da Amadora

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rio Ave vs Estrela da Amadora according to our model?

The model gives Rio Ave a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rio Ave 37%, draw 32%, Estrela da Amadora 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.