01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Sporting CP to win72%
- Over 1.5 goals87%
Primeira LigaEstádio dos Arcos, Vila do Conde18°0,3 mm16 km/h
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Rio AveLow block & direct0–4
Sporting CPPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Sporting CP (72%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 4.45 (+24 %)
Rio Ave – Sporting CP · Primeira Liga
1 · Rio Ave 11%X 17%72% Sporting CP · 2
17%
72%
Analysis: Rio Ave – Sporting CP
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Sporting CP's 37-match scoring streak in the league is a formidable foundation for any analysis of this clash. Not only are they unbeaten in their last eight, but their offensive prowess is consistently evident, averaging 1.9 expected goals per match. In stark contrast, Rio Ave struggles defensively, conceding on average 1.6 expected goals and scoring just 0.6 themselves. The visitors' high-press style seems poised to exploit these vulnerabilities.
Given the small head-to-head sample of just two matches since 2023, where Sporting CP have emerged victorious both times, it's more telling to focus on current form and metrics. Rio Ave's low defensive profile will likely find it difficult to withstand the relentless attack of Sporting, especially as the visitors have no issue finding the net, evident in their recent performances.
The expected goals model heavily favors Sporting with a 72% win probability. Most likely scorelines according to the numbers are 0-2, 0-3, and 1-2, all tilting towards an away victory. The model also anticipates a high-scoring affair, with a 68% probability for over 2.5 goals, though the rain might dampen that slightly — but not by much.
While the betting market heavily favors Sporting, the standout value lies in the over 4.5 goals market. With an estimated 28% probability and offered at odds of 3.95 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, this presents a rare 10% edge. For those keen on finding the overlooked angle, this could be the speculative shot worth taking amidst a match expected to be dominated by the visitors.
Rio AveForm LDLLW
League ranking xG #16xGA #12xT #15xP/match #14Points #9
Key players
- Jalen Aleix Miller BlesaFxG 0.13 · xT 0.06
- Tamble Ulisses Folgado MonteiroFxG 0.31 · xT 0.04
- Tamás NikitscherCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
Sporting CPForm WWDWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #6xP/match #5Points #2
Key players
- Luis SuarezFxG 0.47 · xT 0.00
- Fotis IoannidisFxG 1.65 · xT -0.09
- Sergi Altimira ClavellCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.01
Final score
0 – 4
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Rio Ave 11% · Draw 17% · Sporting CP 72%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Rio AveBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 37,97fair 35,98+6 %
MissMatch prediction: Rio Ave – Sporting CP
Predicted score matrix
Sporting CP →
Rio Ave →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.1%
0–17.6%
0–210.4%
0–39.2%
0–4+11.6%
1
1–02.4%
1–17.0%
1–29.0%
1–38.0%
1–4+10.1%
2
2–01.1%
2–13.0%
2–23.9%
2–33.5%
2–4+4.4%
3
3–00.3%
3–10.9%
3–21.1%
3–31.0%
3–4+1.3%
4+
4+–00.1%
4+–10.2%
4+–20.3%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-210%
- 2.0-39%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-38%
- 5.0-18%
Expected goals
0,87–2,66
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,50
110%
218%
321%
419%
5+28%
Under 2,532%
@2.22
Over 2,568%
@1.62EV+11%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Sporting CP to win72%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Geovany Tcherno Quenda to score35%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Geovany Tcherno Quenda to score35%
- Jakub Brabec to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 4.528% probability@4.45BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
- Over 4.528% probability@4.45BetssonEV+24%reference odds
- Over 4.528% probability@4.45NordicbetEV+24%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Rio Ave | X | 2 · Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 2% 9.70 | 4.55 | 1.31 |
| Betsson | 9.30 | 4.80 | 1.31 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 2% 9.70 | 4.55 | 1.31 |
| Pinnacle | 9.28 | EV+ 3% 5.94 | 1.31 |
Odds updated 28 Aug, 11:39
Odds movement
1+13 %
14 %9 %
8.20 → 9.28
X+1 %
19 %14 %
5.86 → 5.94
20 %
75 %70 %
1.30 → 1.31
Pinnacle · 17 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesRio Ave 0Draw 0Sporting CP 2
Goals: 1–8 (⌀ 4,5)
Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.
Key facts
- Sporting Lisboa are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.
- Sporting Lisboa have scored in 37 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Rio Ave
Sporting CP
Rio Ave (2–3)
Sporting CP (8–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Rio Ave
Sporting CP
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Rio Ave
Sporting CP
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Rio Ave | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 7 |
| xPoints | 2.8 | 6 |
| xG per match | 0.6 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 0.76 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.12 | 0.4 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Rio Ave | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.38 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 0.57 | 0.95 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 0.66 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Passes per match | 282 | 472 |
| Passes against per match | 399 | 323 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.4 | 33.8 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Rio Ave | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 3.7 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 5.7 | 3.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.6 |
| Other | Rio Ave | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Ennio van der Gouw (Rio Ave) | Rui Silva (Sporting CP) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 5 |
| Save % | 82% | 56% |
| xG prevented | 58% | 65% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Rio Ave vs Sporting CP according to our model?
The model gives Sporting CP a 72% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rio Ave 11%, draw 17%, Sporting CP 72%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.