Santa Clara vs Famalicão: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Primeira Liga23 August 2026Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada22°0,9 mm16 km/h

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Santa ClaraPossession control

FamalicãoCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Famalicão (37%)

1 · Santa Clara 32%X 31%37% Famalicão · 2

32%

31%

37%

Analysis: Santa Clara – Famalicão

Oscar Nilsson · 18 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The numbers frame a fascinating clash between Santa Clara and Famalicao in the Primeira Liga. With probabilities teetering in Famalicao's favor at 37%, compared to Santa Clara's 32%, the bookmakers and model lean towards an away victory. Yet, the margin is razor-thin, and the most probable outcomes—a 1-1 draw or a 0-0 stalemate—illustrate the tension.

Santa Clara has the edge in recent head-to-head matchups since 2023, albeit from a small sample of four games. Each team claimed victory twice, so no dominant pattern emerges from these encounters. However, Santa Clara's xG metrics present a robust case: 1.6 xG per match compared to Famalicao's 1.1, while also boasting a more resilient defense with an xGA of 0.93 against Famalicao's 1.1. On paper, Santa Clara has been more efficient, but football isn't played on spreadsheets alone.

Famalicao's style is built for counter-attacks and crossing, which may exploit any gaps left by Santa Clara's possession-focused approach. Yet, the expected goals tally is tightly contested: Santa Clara at 0.99 and Famalicao at 1.03, suggesting a potential low-scoring affair. Only 33% chances of over 2.5 goals hint at a likely grind, with the weather playing no role in this balance.

The sharpest betting angle lies in the value on Famalicao's win. With odds of 2.9 available at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the model sees an 8% edge for the away side. While Santa Clara's form and expected metrics suggest resilience, the market offers a compelling case for betting on Famalicao at these odds. In a game poised on a knife-edge, this is where smart money might land—on the outsider with calculated potential.

Santa Clara

Form DWLDW

League ranking xG #7xGA #6xT #17xP/match #3Points #7

Key players

Gonçalo Mendes PaciênciaFxG 1.25 · xT -0.06
Diogo dos Santos CabralRBxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
Sidney Alexssander Pena De LimaCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.04

Famalicão

Form DDWDL

League ranking xG #10xGA #8xT #8xP/match #12Points #15

Key players

Georgios KoutsiasFxG 0.44 · xT -0.07
Rodrigo PinheiroRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.31
Marcos Vinicios Lopes MouraLWxG 0.36 · xT -0.02

Match prediction: Santa Clara – Famalicão

Predicted score matrix

Famalicão →

Santa Clara →

0–013.8%

0–113.3%

0–27.0%

0–32.4%

0–4+0.8%

1–012.8%

1–113.9%

1–26.9%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.8%

2–06.5%

2–16.7%

2–23.4%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.4%

3–02.1%

3–12.2%

3–21.1%

3–30.4%

3–4+0.1%

4+–00.7%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.3%

4+–30.1%

4+–4+0.0%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-014%
3.0-113%
4.1-013%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

0,99–1,03

Both teams to score

41%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,0

014%

126%

227%

318%

49%

Under 2,567%

@1.52EV+2%

Over 2,533%

@2.42

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Famalicão or draw (X2)67%
Under 3.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Famalicão or draw (X2)67%
Under 2.5 goals67%
Georgios Koutsias to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score41%
Over 2.5 goals33%
Georgios Koutsias to score29%
Pedro Miguel Dinis Ferreira to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Famalicão37% probability@2.90BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
2 · Famalicão37% probability@2.90BetssonEV+8%reference odds
2 · Famalicão37% probability@2.90NordicbetEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Santa Clara	X	2 · Famalicão
Betsafe	2.45	3.00	EV+ 8% 2.90
Betsson	2.45	3.00	EV+ 8% 2.90
Nordicbet	2.45	3.00	EV+ 8% 2.90

Odds updated 18 Aug, 09:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Santa Clara win since 16 August — the odds have shortened from 2.80 to 2.45 (−12%).

1-12 %

40 %30 %

2.80 → 2.45

X+3 %

37 %27 %

2.92 → 3.00

2+11 %

38 %28 %

2.62 → 2.90

Over 2,5+2 %

44 %34 %

2.38 → 2.42

Betsson · 7 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Santa Clara 2Draw 0Famalicão 2

Goals: 4–6 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Santa Clara

Famalicão

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Santa Clara (3–2)

Famalicão (2–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Santa Clara

Famalicão

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Santa Clara

Famalicão

The teams in numbers

Performance	Santa Clara	Famalicão
Points	4	1
xPoints	4.1	2.5
xG per match	1.6	1.1
xGA per match	0.93	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.36	0
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.07	0.23

Playing style	Santa Clara	Famalicão
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.28
Field tilt	0.47	0.57
xT per match	0.4	0.88
xTA per match	0.86	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	21	20
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.19
Entries into the box per match	9	10
Entries into the box against	12	12
Pass completion %	0.73	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.64	0.78
Passes per match	283	477
Passes against per match	356	299
Switches of play per match	24.7	30
Long balls per match	26	28

Set pieces	Santa Clara	Famalicão
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	3	5.6
Corners against per match	4	4.1
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.67	0.27
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.5

Other	Santa Clara	Famalicão
Throw-in control	0.63	0.81

The goalkeepers	Lucas Franca (Santa Clara)	Lazar Carević (Famalicão)
Saves	3	4
Save %	60%	57%
xG prevented	19%	49%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Santa Clara vs Famalicão according to our model?

The model gives Famalicão a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Santa Clara 32%, draw 31%, Famalicão 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 33% and under at 67%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 41% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.