Primeira LigaEstádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada24°9,1 mm15 km/h

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    Santa ClaraSanta ClaraPossession control
    4–0
    Rio AveRio AveLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Santa Clara (50%)

    Santa Clara – Rio Ave · Primeira Liga

    1 · Santa Clara 50%X 31%19% Rio Ave · 2

    Analysis: Santa Clara – Rio Ave

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    The head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Rio Ave paints a picture of balance, with both teams securing a win each and two draws in their last four encounters since 2023. However, the small sample size suggests caution in relying solely on these results. Instead, the current form and expected goals offer a clearer lens for this Primeira Liga clash. The hosts have accumulated more points (8) and boast a superior xPoints tally (8.4) compared to Rio Ave's meager 3 points and 3.4 xPoints.

    Santa Clara's approach centers around possession control, a style that should dominate against Rio Ave's low block and direct counter-attacks. This tactical battle is likely to unfold with Santa Clara dictating the pace, while the visitors will aim to absorb pressure and strike on the break. Despite the potential for a tactical stalemate, the expectation leans towards Santa Clara's strategy overcoming Rio Ave's defensive posture.

    The expected goals further underline Santa Clara's advantage, with an anticipated 1.42 goals per match compared to Rio Ave's 0.89. The probability of a low-scoring affair is reflected in the most likely scorelines, with 1-0 and 1-1 both emerging as plausible outcomes. The rain, with 8.9 mm expected, could also suppress goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with the under 2.5 goals probability of 59%.

    While the model's lean towards Santa Clara is evident, the sharpest betting angle lies in the draw offered at odds of 3.3 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The 31% probability assigned by the model translates into a 2% value edge, making it a tempting option for those seeking potential value in a match where the outcome could hinge on fine margins.

    Santa ClaraSanta Clara
    Form LDWWD
    League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #15xP/match #2Points #4
    Key players
    • Gonçalo Mendes PaciênciaFxG 0.92 · xT -0.03
    • Diogo dos Santos CabralRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
    • Pedro PachecoCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.04
    Rio AveRio Ave
    Form DLLWL
    League ranking xG #16xGA #13xT #14xP/match #16Points #13
    Key players
    • Jalen Aleix Miller BlesaFxG 0.10 · xT 0.02
    • Tamás NikitscherCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.02
    • Tamble Ulisses Folgado MonteiroFxG 0.24 · xT 0.02
    Final score
    4 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Santa Clara 50% · Draw 31% · Rio Ave 19%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Santa ClaraBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,05fair 10,65-15 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Rio AveBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 18,47fair 26,39-30 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Santa Clara – Rio Ave

    Predicted score matrix

    Rio Ave →
    Santa Clara →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.2%
    0–18.4%
    0–23.9%
    0–31.2%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–013.6%
    1–112.9%
    1–25.6%
    1–31.7%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–010.0%
    2–18.9%
    2–24.0%
    2–31.2%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–04.7%
    3–14.2%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.3%
    4+–12.1%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-014%
    2. 2.1-113%
    3. 3.0-010%
    4. 4.2-010%
    5. 5.2-19%
    Expected goals
    1,42–0,89
    Both teams to score
    45%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,559%
    @1.61
    Over 2,541%
    @2.40

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Santa Clara to win50%
    • Under 3.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.68

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Santa Clara to win50%
    • Under 2.5 goals59%
    • Gustavo Klismahn Dimaraes Miranda to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score45%
    • Over 2.5 goals41%
    • Gustavo Klismahn Dimaraes Miranda to score22%
    • Pedro Miguel Dinis Ferreira to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    Bookmaker1 · Santa ClaraX2 · Rio Ave
    Betsafe1.983.103.95
    Betsson1.983.103.95
    Nordicbet1.983.103.95
    Pinnacle1.973.204.57

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards the draw since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 3.48 to 3.20 (−8%).

    1+10 %
    56 %46 %

    1.79 → 1.97

    X-8 %
    33 %23 %

    3.48 → 3.20

    2-3 %
    25 %15 %

    4.72 → 4.57

    Over 2,5+8 %
    47 %37 %

    2.23 → 2.40

    Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Santa Clara 1Draw 2Rio Ave 1
    Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 1,8)

    Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Santa Clara
    Rio Ave
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Santa Clara (5–3)
    Rio Ave (2–7)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Santa Clara
    Pedro Pacheco: 163 passningar, xT 0.15PachecoDiogo dos Santos Cabral: 146 passningar, xT 0.15CabralPedro Ferreira: 125 passningar, xT 0.05FerreiraEmanuel Moreira Fernandes: 101 passningar, xT 0.06FernandesGuilherme Kennedy Romão: 98 passningar, xT 0.24RomãoLucas Franca: 91 passningar, xT -0.02FrancaJosé Luís Rocha Tavares: 53 passningar, xT 0.1TavaresSidney Alexssander Pena De Lima: 53 passningar, xT 0.04LimaDani Borges: 47 passningar, xT -0.08BorgesLuiz Fernando Salles de Castro: 39 passningar, xT 0.25CastroVinícius Lopes da Silva: 33 passningar, xT 0.24Silva
    Rio Ave
    Francisco Petrasso: 155 passningar, xT 0.1PetrassoGeorgios Liavas: 144 passningar, xT 0.58LiavasEnnio van der Gouw: 131 passningar, xT 0.09GouwGustavo Teixeira Lopes da Conceição: 118 passningar, xT 0.09ConceiçãoDiogo André Santos Nascimento: 99 passningar, xT 0.08NascimentoTamás Nikitscher: 87 passningar, xT 0.07NikitscherNelson Abbey: 72 passningar, xT 0.1AbbeyJalen Aleix Miller Blesa: 64 passningar, xT 0.09BlesaDiogo Bezerra de Oliveira: 58 passningar, xT 0.59OliveiraTamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro: 48 passningar, xT 0.05MonteiroAndreas Richardos Ntoi: 45 passningar, xT 0.04Ntoi
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Santa Clara
    Pedro Pacheco: 163 passningar, xT 0.15PachecoDiogo dos Santos Cabral: 146 passningar, xT 0.15CabralPedro Ferreira: 125 passningar, xT 0.05FerreiraEmanuel Moreira Fernandes: 101 passningar, xT 0.06FernandesGuilherme Kennedy Romão: 98 passningar, xT 0.24RomãoLucas Franca: 91 passningar, xT -0.02FrancaJosé Luís Rocha Tavares: 53 passningar, xT 0.1TavaresSidney Alexssander Pena De Lima: 53 passningar, xT 0.04LimaDani Borges: 47 passningar, xT -0.08BorgesLuiz Fernando Salles de Castro: 39 passningar, xT 0.25CastroVinícius Lopes da Silva: 33 passningar, xT 0.24Silva
    Rio Ave
    Francisco Petrasso: 155 passningar, xT 0.1PetrassoGeorgios Liavas: 144 passningar, xT 0.58LiavasEnnio van der Gouw: 131 passningar, xT 0.09GouwGustavo Teixeira Lopes da Conceição: 118 passningar, xT 0.09ConceiçãoDiogo André Santos Nascimento: 99 passningar, xT 0.08NascimentoTamás Nikitscher: 87 passningar, xT 0.07NikitscherNelson Abbey: 72 passningar, xT 0.1AbbeyJalen Aleix Miller Blesa: 64 passningar, xT 0.09BlesaDiogo Bezerra de Oliveira: 58 passningar, xT 0.59OliveiraTamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro: 48 passningar, xT 0.05MonteiroAndreas Richardos Ntoi: 45 passningar, xT 0.04Ntoi

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSanta ClaraRio Ave
    Points83
    xPoints8.43.4
    xG per match1.50.57
    xGA per match0.781.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.40.09
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.080.16
    Playing styleSanta ClaraRio Ave
    Build-up efficiency0.30.27
    Field tilt0.420.37
    xT per match0.510.52
    xTA per match0.81.2
    Won balls, offensive half2423
    Pressing intensity0.220.23
    Pressing efficiency0.260.24
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.15
    Entries into the box per match97
    Entries into the box against1114
    Pass completion %0.710.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.640.71
    Passes per match267298
    Passes against per match376442
    Switches of play per match25.424.8
    Long balls per match2929
    Set piecesSanta ClaraRio Ave
    xG from free kicks0.070.13
    Corners per match2.73.3
    Corners against per match6.75.1
    xG per corner0.030.01
    xGA per corner against0.020.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.640.31
    First touch, defensive corners %0.560.6
    OtherSanta ClaraRio Ave
    Throw-in control0.640.67
    The goalkeepersLucas Franca (Santa Clara)Ennio van der Gouw (Rio Ave)
    Saves617
    Save %67%71%
    xG prevented23%53%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Santa Clara
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Rio Ave
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Santa Clara vs Rio Ave according to our model?

    The model gives Santa Clara a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Santa Clara 50%, draw 31%, Rio Ave 19%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.