01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Sporting CP to win81%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
Primeira LigaEstádio José Alvalade, Lissabon18°11 km/h
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Sporting CPPossession & high press3–1
AlvercaPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Sporting CP (81%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.21 (+0 %)
Sporting CP – Alverca · Primeira Liga
1 · Sporting CP 81%X 12%7% Alverca · 2
81%
12%
Analysis: Sporting CP – Alverca
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Sporting CP's 81% probability of victory casts a long shadow over this Primeira Liga matchup against Alverca. The hosts' relentless scoring streak of 36 consecutive league matches offers little hope for the visitors, whose xGA of 1.9 per match suggests a vulnerable defense. Sporting's style of high press and possession is likely to dictate play, contrasting sharply with Alverca's more restrained approach.
The head-to-head record is a small sample but telling: two matches, two wins for the Lisbon side. This streak aligns with a broader form narrative, where Sporting remain unbeaten in their last seven league outings. Alverca, meanwhile, struggles in the points tally, sitting at just one compared to Sporting's four, though their xPoints of 3.0 suggest some underlying potential not yet realized.
Expected goals favor the hosts significantly, with 2.80 to Alverca's 0.66. This disparity supports the model's most likely scorelines, such as 2-0 and 3-0. The over 2.5 goals market leans towards a 67% chance, but caution is warranted. Alverca's possession control could potentially suppress the goal count more than these figures suggest, despite the hosts' scoring prowess.
Despite all signs pointing towards a comfortable home win, the market offers a sliver of value in the over/under 2.5 line. Given the goal-scoring abilities of the home team and the defensive frailties of the visitors, an over at even modest odds could yield returns. However, the expected margin of victory keeps a more conservative 2-0 or 3-0 finish in play.
For those seeking value, consider the 2-0 correct score at 12%. It aligns with the dominant narrative of a Sporting-controlled match, providing a more traditional, risk-averse angle without chasing improbable upsets.
Sporting CPForm WWWDW
League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #4xP/match #7Points #6
Key players
- Flávio Ferreira GonçalvesLWxG 0.37 · xT 0.09
- Fotis IoannidisFxG 1.66 · xT -0.09
- Sergi Altimira ClavellCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.00
AlvercaForm LDLLD
League ranking xG #4xGA #15xT #12xP/match #8Points #10
Key players
- Ian Luccas Baroni BoettoFxG 1.14 · xT 0.01
- Francisco Jorge Tavares OliveiraRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.04
- Isaac JamesLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.27
Final score
3 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Sporting CP 81% · Draw 12% · Alverca 7%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - AlvercaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 40,77fair 75,13-46 %
MissMatch prediction: Sporting CP – Alverca
Predicted score matrix
Alverca →
Sporting CP →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.3%
0–11.9%
0–20.7%
0–30.2%
0–4+0.0%
1
1–08.6%
1–16.0%
1–21.9%
1–30.4%
1–4+0.1%
2
2–012.3%
2–18.2%
2–22.7%
2–30.6%
2–4+0.1%
3
3–011.5%
3–17.6%
3–22.5%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.1%
4+
4+–015.8%
4+–110.5%
4+–23.5%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-012%
- 2.3-011%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.4-08%
Expected goals
2,80–0,66
Both teams to score
46%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,50
111%
219%
322%
419%
5+27%
Under 2,533%
@2.62
Over 2,567%
@1.46
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Sporting CP to win81%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Geovany Tcherno Quenda to score37%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score46%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Geovany Tcherno Quenda to score37%
- Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho to be booked26%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.545% probability@2.21PinnacleEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sporting CP | X | 2 · Alverca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.20 | 5.70 | 12.50 |
| Betsson | 1.20 | 5.70 | 12.50 |
| Nordicbet | 1.20 | 5.70 | 12.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.21 | 7.28 | 12.68 |
Odds updated 22 Aug, 20:32
Odds movement
10 %
82 %77 %
1.20 → 1.21
X+1 %
16 %11 %
7.24 → 7.28
2+14 %
10 %5 %
11.09 → 12.68
Pinnacle · 16 recorded price levels · 20/08/2026 → 22/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesSporting CP 2Draw 0Alverca 0
Goals: 6–1 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.
Key facts
- Sporting Lisboa are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
- Sporting Lisboa have scored in 36 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sporting CP
Alverca
Sporting CP (5–4)
Alverca (2–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sporting CP
Alverca
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sporting CP
Alverca
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sporting CP | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 1 |
| xPoints | 3.5 | 3 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 0.95 | 1.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.71 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.3 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Sporting CP | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.54 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.74 |
| xTA per match | 0.86 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.8 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 428 | 276 |
| Passes against per match | 310 | 343 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.5 | 21.1 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 24 |
| Set pieces | Sporting CP | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4.6 | 5.4 |
| Corners against per match | 3 | 3.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| Other | Sporting CP | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Rui Silva (Sporting CP) | Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira (Alverca) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 3 | 7 |
| Save % | 50% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 66% | 23% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sporting CP vs Alverca according to our model?
The model gives Sporting CP a 81% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sporting CP 81%, draw 12%, Alverca 7%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.