Sporting CP vs Vitória de Guimarães: Prediction & Odds (14 Aug 2026)

Primeira Liga14 August 2026Estádio José Alvalade, Lissabon22°19 km/h

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Sporting CPPossession & high press

Vitória de GuimarãesPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Sporting CP (75%)Best value by the model: 2 · Vitória de Guimarães @ 11.50 (+16 %)

1 · Sporting CP 75%X 15%10% Vitória de Guimarães · 2

75%

15%

Analysis: Sporting CP – Vitória de Guimarães

Marcus Johansson · 9 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Sporting Lisboa's recent form is hard to ignore, with the club riding a three-match winning streak and having scored in 34 consecutive league contests. This goal-scoring prowess aligns seamlessly with their possession-heavy, high-press strategy, a style that has consistently put opponents on the back foot and reaped rich dividends in the Primeira Liga. In stark contrast, Vitoria Guimaraes find themselves in a rut, having been on the wrong end of the scoreline in their last three outings. The disparity is further highlighted by their 42-point season tally, a distant cry from Sporting Lisboa's commanding 82 points.

Sporting Lisboa's dominance is underscored by their 75% win probability for this match, reflected in the model's expected goals of 2.51 in their favor versus Vitoria's meager 0.81. These numbers paint a picture of likely control and clinical finishing from Sporting, with the most probable outcomes being 2-0 and 3-0. The head-to-head since 2023, although a small sample size, also tilts heavily towards Sporting with two victories, further cementing their upper hand.

Vitoria Guimaraes, for all their efforts in possession control, might find themselves overwhelmed by Sporting's relentless high press. The anticipated weather conditions will play a role, potentially limiting goal opportunities, but even that seems unlikely to shift the momentum away from the Lisbon giants. The over 2.5 goals market leans heavily at 64%, suggesting we might witness a flurry of goals, although wind and rain could temper this expectation slightly.

Betting enthusiasts might find intrigue in the value plays offered by Pinnacle, with the odds for an upset away victory at 12.06 and a draw at 7.09 both presenting potential edges. However, these are long shots against the backdrop of Sporting’s formidable form and consistent scoring streak. Thus, while Sporting Lisboa at home appears the likeliest victors, the high odds on an upset do provide a tantalizing, albeit risky, opportunity for those with an appetite for a gamble.

Sporting CP

Form DDWWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #1xP/match #2Points #2

Key players

Luis SuarezFxG 0.64 · xT 0.10
Francisco TrincaoRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.16
Goncalo InacioCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.19

Vitória de Guimarães

Form WWLLL

League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #6xP/match #8Points #8

Key players

Oscar RivasCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.11
Thiago Balieiro Lourenço de CarvalhoCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.03
Fábio Samuel Amorim da SilvaCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Sporting CP – Vitória de Guimarães

Predicted score matrix

Vitória de Guimarães →

Sporting CP →

0–03.8%

0–12.7%

0–21.2%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–08.9%

1–17.6%

1–23.0%

1–30.8%

1–4+0.2%

2–011.4%

2–19.2%

2–23.7%

2–31.0%

2–4+0.2%

3–09.5%

3–17.7%

3–23.1%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–010.8%

4+–18.8%

4+–23.6%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.3-010%
3.2-19%
4.1-09%
5.3-18%

Expected goals

2,51–0,81

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

@2.62

Over 2,564%

@1.46

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sporting CP to win75%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sporting CP to win75%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Luis Javier Suárez Charris to score43%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Luis Javier Suárez Charris to score43%
Francisco Lagos Dias to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Vitória de Guimarães10% probability@11.50BetsafeEV+16%
2 · Vitória de Guimarães10% probability@11.50BetssonEV+16%
2 · Vitória de Guimarães10% probability@11.50NordicbetEV+16%

Bookmaker	1 · Sporting CP	X	2 · Vitória de Guimarães
Betsafe	1.24	5.30	EV+ 16% 11.50
Betsson	1.24	5.30	EV+ 16% 11.50
Nordicbet	1.24	5.30	EV+ 16% 11.50
Pinnacle	1.23	6.44	EV+ 5% 10.45

Odds updated 12 Aug, 12:09

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards the draw since 9 August — the odds have shortened from 7.09 to 6.44 (−9%).

1+3 %

80 %75 %

1.19 → 1.23

X-9 %

16 %11 %

7.09 → 6.44

2-13 %

11 %6 %

12.06 → 10.45

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Sporting CP 2Draw 0Vitória de Guimarães 0

Goals: 9–2 (⌀ 5,5)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

Sporting Lisboa come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Sporting Lisboa have scored in 34 consecutive league matches.
Vitoria Guimaraes have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sporting CP

Vitória de Guimarães

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Sporting CP (89–24)

Vitória de Guimarães (39–51)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sporting CP

Vitória de Guimarães

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sporting CP

Vitória de Guimarães

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sporting CP	Vitória de Guimarães
Points	82	42
xPoints	57.6	48.4
xG per match	1.9	1.3
xGA per match	0.85	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.38	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.22

Playing style	Sporting CP	Vitória de Guimarães
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.31
Field tilt	0.69	0.56
xT per match	1.4	0.88
xTA per match	0.59	0.82
Won balls, offensive half	27	27
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.33
Entries into the box per match	17	11
Entries into the box against	7	10
Pass completion %	0.83	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.71
Passes per match	488	333
Passes against per match	283	318
Switches of play per match	28.1	23.6
Long balls per match	30	27

Set pieces	Sporting CP	Vitória de Guimarães
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.07
Corners per match	6.9	4.4
Corners against per match	3.1	3.9
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.53

Other	Sporting CP	Vitória de Guimarães
Throw-in control	0.79	0.73

The goalkeepers	Rui Silva (Sporting CP)	Charles Marcelo da Silva (Vitória de Guimarães)
Saves	76	62
Save %	78%	67%
xG prevented	43%	39%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sporting CP vs Vitória de Guimarães according to our model?

The model gives Sporting CP a 75% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sporting CP 75%, draw 15%, Vitória de Guimarães 10%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.